First comp at the D and Bubble Crap questions

Hi Everyone,

On December 22nd 2019, I went to downtown Las Vegas to specifically seed the D while staying at the Rio. I had only intended to play Bubble Craps (and a tiny bit of slots) but had to alter my plan a bit after seeing the slip that says no points are awarded for that machine. I ended up spending 30% of my $1200 bankroll on table craps and the remaining 70% on Bubble Craps, with perhaps 15 minutes or so playing the Sinbad slot machine. The total coin-in was about $5300, $4900 of it coming from Bubble Craps.

When I came home I logged in online and saw that I had a point balance of 28 (from the slot machine) and my earned comps was at $17 (from table craps). I kept checking and hoping for something to show under the "offers" category, but nothing. About a week ago, I checked online and received my first offer! It's good for 3 nights with $40 in free slot play and $40 in match play for February-April. I was super excited because I wasn't sure whether the just-under-$5000 I churned on Bubble Crap would count for anything. The lesson here is luckily I inserted my player's card into the Bubble Craps machine even though it said that no points are awarded. It appears that even though you don't get points, you at least still get rated, as opposed to Four Queens where I was told that while it's tracked on the machine, you don't get rated on it. Can anyone verify?

Speaking of Bubble Craps, I'm trying to figure what comps to expect from playing it. Please help to see if my calculations are correct. If I have a $500 bankroll and spread it evenly by placing $125 each on the point numbers 5, 6, 8, 9, (assume buys on the 5 and 9) is the weighted average house edge (125/500)*4 + (125/500)*1.52 + (125/500)*1.52 + (125/500)*4 = 2.76%? Similarly, $500 spread across evenly at $100 on each point number 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, (assume buys on the 5, 9, and 10) has a weighted average house edge of (100/500)*4 + (100/500)*1.52 + (100/500)*1.52 + (100/500)*4 + (100/500)*6.67 = 3.542%? Therefore, if I play for one hour at 60 rolls per hour, total coin-in would be my average bet of $500 per roll times 60 rolls per hour = $30,000 and my theoretical loss for the first and second scenario, respectively, would be $30,000*2.76% = $828 and $30,000*3.542% = $1062.60, and my earned comps should be $828*30% = $248.40 and $1062.60*30% = $318.78, correct?

 

Can anyone good with numbers help to see if my calculations are correct? I play craps 90% of the time and want to make sure I'm getting the right comps for my level of play. It's just complicated as there are many different bets in craps, each with a different house edge as opposed to a simpler game like Baccarat with a 1.06% and 1.24* house edge on banker and player, respectively.

 

I will need a better time window to better break all of this down. What follows is an amateur at best lazy attempt.

With the bubble, the reality is that the only action that counts in terms of coin-in is settled bets. After establishing a point, you could go $500 inside; roll literally a million times, never hitting either the point, big red, or your placed/bought numbers; and then finally hit big red. (I absolutely realize that this is a huge statistical impossibility, as the average shooter goes 8.52 rolls.) On the bubble, your coin-in would count as $500 -- the bets that lost (as there would not have been any winners).

Your 28 points from machine play would be $140 of slot coin-in. (More on that in a bit.) Let us then call your estimated bubble craps coin-in $5200.

Indeed, ratings on dice will wildly vary -- table or machine. With the bubble, whenever a loyalty card can be put in, I expect the whole machine to have one static theo/hold. I generally expect this to be no lower than 1 percent, and no better than 1.5 percent. No bubble craps machine is going to be sophisticated enough to accurately report theo for every individual bet on the (virtual) layout (just as the pit is not going to be all that accurate or fair). For $5200 of settled bets, your theo would likely count as $52-78.

From my detailed observations from playing at the D and Golden Gate, earned comp dollars are earned at a rate of 5% of theo. Your earned comps totaling $17 strongly suggests a theo of $340 between everything you played -- at least everything that earns comp dollars. Your slot play would be about $14 of that theo. If you had provided us with your average bet and time on table for the live dice action, it would be possible to solve for the bubble. The pace of play the pit will count for live dice is usually 90 rolls per hour (one roll every 40 seconds on average). If you were on the table for just one hour, you were to generate $300 in theo for your action, and the pit counted a 2% hold (which would be overly generous of them), your average bet would have had to have been in the neighborhood of $170. You said that you committed $360 of bankroll to the live table. If the bubble did not count for any of your earned comp dollars, that means that you either went YOLO with your bets or you were on the table for quite a while with a lower average bet.

My educated guess here is that the bubble counts toward earned comps at D/GG.

The only places anywhere I have seen return anything by way of points for the bubble are CET properties, El Cortez, and Encore Boston Harbor. With CET, it takes $200 of settled bets on the bubble to get one point, worth $0.01 of resort spend (and $0.005 if redeemed for free play). The return at both El Cortez and EBH is ten (or twenty, depending on how one wants to call it) times better -- $20 of settled bets for enough in points to redeem for $0.01 of free play.

 

I may be wrong, but if the game has a sticker on it saying “No points earned on this machine”, that means no comps earned. For machine play most casinos use your coin in value to accumulate points, which in turn you use to purchase comps. You could check with a host about it, but my money is on ‘no points = no comps’.

 

@Mike Aclin I actually played on the new bubble at the D just last night. Indeed, one does not earn any points. However, I confirmed that I earned between $5 and $6 from my play. (The web portal only shows the current earned comps rounded down to the nearest dollar.) Unfortunately, I did not reliably track how much I had in settled bets. However, I know that the machine has me for $100-120 of theo for my session. My current suspicion is that the casino has the machine theo set too high. There's no way I had at least $5k of settled bets on the time frame when I played.

On the other thread that discusses the D and earned comp and point earning (the thread actually focused on the Four Queens where the D came up for comparison), you cited vpFree2 as a source of truth for comp earning at the D and Golden Gate. That site is wrong. I have confirmed through my own play (which I have revealed here as being meticulously tracked by hand as best as possible; I trust no casino to give me an accurate win/loss form that the IRS would consider to be at least equally as valid as my own gaming diary) multiple times in recent weeks that one does not earn comp dollars there at a rate of $2 for every 100 points. Comp dollars at D/GG are earned at a rate of 5% of theo.

 

Good catch on earning comp $ on the bubble craps game. I would have guessed without points earned it wouldn’t earn comp $ either.

Now, as far as the D goes......I track my play meticulously there. It is very easy to do because I only play machines, no tables. So it is easy to keep up with, since you can look it up on the game display you are playing. I’ve been playing at the D for over 3 years now, and my points earned for free play and comp dollar are exactly what VPFree has in it. As I stated on a previous post, I can play EXACTLY $6,000 there and check my account and will have earned EXACTLY 600 points which is $6 in FP, and $12 in comps. Now, I do ONLY play Bonus Poker there. Mostly at the Vue Bar, but some of the other 8/5 games on the floor. So maybe the ‘theo’ is the same for all those games, and it is different for some of their lower paying games.

I can say the same for the 4Q. I track my coin in over there. VPFree has the point FP and comp rate set as two different amounts, depending upon which VP games you are playing, <100% games award points at one level, and >=100% games award points at 1/2 the rate. I (and many others) have verified those numbers. Again, I haven’t double checked this when playing their worst games. But I will be back to both places in the next few months and see how the points accrue playing worse games and slots and see how things come out and report back.

If VPFree is all wrong, we need to let the thousands of people who use it, and monitor some of those casinos know it is a hoax. There may be a mistake in there, casinos change, and people update it as changes occur.

 

Wildfoodie, were you playing the big bubble machine or the new little, individual ones? I'm hoping the little ones are still there.

 

@JulianC Thank you so much for helping to clarify! On bubble craps, I sometimes spread $500 across the inside numbers and have gone on some nice rolls before. All this time I had thought that would mean a $500 average bet, but it looks like the only amount that counts would be whatever I bet on the point number which would have to be settled. So if I bet $125 on each of the 5, 6, 8, and 9 point numbers, and the 9 hits, the only bet that would be counted would be $125 and NOT the $500. The ONLY time the $500 at risk would count as the average bet is if i PSO (point seven out)! I had also thought all this time that the machine ratings would be much more accurate than for table games, but you're likely right in that the machines aren't sophisticated enough to track bets accurately. My own guestimate was a 2-3% house edge on bubble craps for betting all of the inside numbers, but it looks like I overestimated it.

I believe the $17 I received on earned comps was exclusively from my 20 minutes or less on table craps because that showed up immediately on my online account vs the actual offer online I received slightly less than a month later. I don't really remember my bets but they were likely between $20-$70 which includes a mix of passline, place, and lay bets.

And I was talking to a local craps player at Harrah's San Diego and he mentioned that at all Caesars properties you earn much, much more tier credits and reward credits playing table craps as opposed to bubble craps. For bubble craps where my $500 spread inside the four numbers would count as a $125 bet if and only if a number hits (or $500 on a PSO), it'd count as a $500 average bet (I assume per resolved roll) at the craps table. I am hoping someone could verify as that is a BIG difference!

@Mike Aclin I believe the label that says no points earned means exactly that, however you still get rated, so it counts for comps.

@Big Tip After losing most of my bankroll on the bigger version bubble craps, I played perhaps $10 or so on the new individual bubble craps machine, so yes they are still around.

 

At a regular craps table if you bet $500 inside($125 on 5,6,8,9) you will be rated as a $500 avg bet. Now if you just do that randomly then your avg bet will be less. I’m not sure why it would be different on bubble craps(it might be). The reason is that you have $500/at risk.

Also if you bet that much you need to be on regular craps table. IMO

 

FYI, here's a piece on craps (table) comps...

 

Just this afternoon, I was on the dice table at Casino Quest, putting in some practice. I highly recommend them. Also, I love watching Color Up.

 

The little ones were there as of last week.

 

The video was intriguing because the interviewee essentially said you only can expect credit for the amount of your passline bet. He even discounts getting any credit for your numbers bet. By way of example he states putting $64 across will probably be given only one number for action as only one number is at risk at a time -- and any bet which you can take down should get no credit. I find that hard to believe. While I understand that many casinos give no action for free odds bets since there is no house advantage, this is weird way to look at how much action is being recorded on the craps table as the interviewee (who is a craps dealer/supervisor) essentially says you can expect only your passline bet to be counted. Perhaps it explains why I get so few comps on craps.

 

In his defense, on second watch the ex-dealers main message is YMMV, bosses are lazy and don't pay the attention to Craps like they do BJ,
If they are on it, and FWIW, my MSS dealer confirmed my last trip, placed numbers should rate better than pass & comes w. odds.
I don't wanna be the guy hassling the box about my rating and I'll let those chips fall where they may.
Maybe next empty table I'll pick their minds some more.

But as he concludes, they all know me as a regular, I tip like a george, and I do big hours, I'm an idiot betting inside, so whatever, I should get a fair representation of whatever low theo they rate at, because it is low theo.

 

@AyDee Thanks for the video about casino comps for craps. It was helpful!

I've always enjoyed Color Up on YouTube, and have learned a lot of different crap strategies from them.

Btw, if anyone's interested in a podcast about recreational gambling, definitely check out You Can Bet on That (youcanbetonthat.com). Mark and Dr. Mike make a great team and are a wealth of info. Plus, they're highly entertaining! They're regulars at Harrah's Southern California (San Diego). They specialize in craps but are extremely knowledgeable in pretty much all aspects of gambling.

 

"You Can Bet On That" is my favorite gambling podcast. Mark and Dr. Mike actually are gamblers and tell some wonderful stories and give insights I can use. Also they play more craps than any other game which I find very interesting. Many other gambling podcasts essentially read Vegas press releases and make me fall asleep.

 

@FABismonte We both have great taste! I tried listening to some other gambling podcasts, but none compare to You Can Bet on That. It's always interesting to hear their stories and yes, the insights they provide are tremendously helpful.