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Earning CET Diamond Status quickly with little variance

Discussion in 'Comps' started by CMUCPA14, May 9, 2017.

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  1. CMUCPA14

    CMUCPA14 Low-Roller

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    ive been trying to rack my brain around getting my fiancée diamond status easily for our upcoming trip. This is probably a terrible idea and not something I'm even considering at this point, but want to run it by VMB to see if it'd actually be feasible.

    Game: roulette
    Properties: CET
    Goal: earn Diamond status in a day while avoiding most/all variance while generating future offers
    Assumptions: 1 TC per $5 coin in ok roulette (please correct me if this isn't right)

    So the plan would be to max bet at roulette every spin while avoiding as much variance as possible. The betting strategy (assuming max bet of $500) would be as follows:
    $237 - red
    $237 - black
    $13 - 0
    $13 - 00

    Every hand would generate a return of between $468 - $474, which would result in a loss of $32-36 per spin.

    At only 5,000 tier credits in a day to get the 10,000 bonus and total 15,000 needed for diamond, you'd need $25,000 coin in. At $500 a roulette spin, you'd need exactly 50 spins. 50 spins at $32 -$36 loss per spin is a guaranteed loss of $1600 - $1,800 to hit diamond.

    Comparison to traditional VP route:
    1. Since VP is $10 coin in/TC, your expected loss would be approximately $1,000 at 98% payback (full pay VP is obviously much better, but for simplicity sake let's keep it at 98%) However, this can bring a lot of variance into play, especially at some of the higher $/bet machines.

    I'd like any feedback on my assumptions calculations. I could be completely missing something glaring or, in the bigger picture, $1600 - $1800 of free money to CET outweighs a Diamond status with very little overhead. That's a lot of money to most people and the idea of just giving it away would be stupid to say the least (I'm part of this group, by the way)

    Final question: how much (in terms of $) do you value the different high-end statuses in LV? (7*/Diamond at CET, Noir/Platnium at MGM, Platnium at Cosmo, etc)

    Thanks!
     
  2. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    And what would her being Diamond get you? I assume you already have Diamond - or is that a bad assumption?
     
  3. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    "At only 5,000 tier credits in a day to get the 10,000 bonus and total 15,000 needed for diamond, you'd need $25,000 coin in. At $500 a roulette spin, you'd need exactly 50 spins. 50 spins at $32 -$36 loss per spin is a guaranteed loss of $1600 - $1,800 to hit diamond."

    Where did you get those numbers? $25,000 coin in would generate 5000TC on regular slot play, and AFAIK, that is the HIGHEST amount of "house PC", I don't see roulette being rated with a higher house PC than standard slots.
     
    Another NGO trip. QQQQ/NYNY
  4. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    I know you gave a "funny" to my original reply, but then I started thinking about it.

    Your math is off in that you don't get 1 TC for every $5 you bet in roulette. The HA of roulette (5.25%) is about half of what you'd use for a ballpark for slots (10%). So let's assume you get TCs on roulette at the same ratio of TCs-to-HA as slots.

    Assumptions::
    • Assume you get 5.25% HA (theo) on the full $500 bet on each spin.
    • Your theo per spin is $26.25
    • You get 1 TC for $5 coin in on slots
    • Assume a 10% hold on slots, so $0.50 theo per TC
    • Assume you get TCs on roulette at the same ratio of theo-to-TC as slots
    • At $26.25 theo per spin, you are getting 52.5 TCs per spin
    • 5,000 TCs = 95.24 spins
    • 95.24 * $32 to $36 per spin loss = $3,047 to $3,429 loss, midpoint is about $3,200.
    Slots, your expected loss on $25,000 coin in would be $2,500, it could be up to $5,000 with bad luck, or $1,250 or less with decent luck. Losing $3,200 (midpoint of roulette) would be a 12.8% loss. $25,000 is a lot of coin in, I'd say your chances of being close to $2,500 loss (or less) would be much greater than your chance of losing $5,000.

    I suspect if you did $25,000 coin in a bunch of times, your results would cluster between 10% - 15% loss. $2,500 - $3,750.

    But it you know you're just gonna lose $32 - $36 every spin on roulette, yeah, I'd say that's practically the definition of low variance. So much so that they should skip the drudgery and just sell you the Diamond card for $3,200.

    I've been Platinum at MLife in prior years, but the only value I put on it is the tier bonus on Freeplay and Express Comps. A combined $0.006 (six-tenths of a cent) extra per $3 coin in compared to the lowest level. So If I did $40,000 coin in a year, that's worth $80 in additional freeplay and Express Comps.

    Diamond at CET is worth a $100 Celebration Dinner, and no resort fees for the 4 nights a year I end up paying for, so about $240.

    Platinum at Cosmo gets you 3x points, but you start getting 2x at only 4,000 TCs. It's hard for me to quantify the benefits there, but the actual monetary benefits are smallish. I did $44,000 coin in at Cosmo last year; getting 2x instead of 1x on slots per $2.50 coin in was worth $176. Throw in 2 tier-based comp nights that you can book outside of offers and that adds maybe $300 - $400. But could I have gotten those 2 nights comped back end just based on my play? Maybe.

    All the other tier benefits are kind of soft, it's hard to put a number on line skipping or chicken wings.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2017
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  5. CMUCPA14

    CMUCPA14 Low-Roller

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    Correct... its just something I was considering for someone who has never been. Probably my SO is a bad example since we share the room, but for someone else, future comped rooms/waived resort fees, diamond lounges, etc. Still probably wouldn't be a good idea, just an idea I've been kicking around.
     
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  6. CMUCPA14

    CMUCPA14 Low-Roller

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    You're exactly right. I couldn't find anything related to roulette.. $5/1 TC might be a bad assumption. I'm curious to know how the machines rate you that don't have a dealer? Anyone have a concrete answer?
     
  7. CMUCPA14

    CMUCPA14 Low-Roller

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    If I were you reading this, id have the exact same reply
     
  8. Its Only Money

    Its Only Money VIP Whale

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    Card status means very little. Coin in for slots and total time/average bet mean everything to the casinos. Remember they aren't giving you things to be nice they are giving you things with the expectation you will lose much more than you are given.
     
  9. CMUCPA14

    CMUCPA14 Low-Roller

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    I like this approach. This calculation would end up being approx $9.52 coin in/ 1TC. The roulette to diamond route now sounds even worse than before, as if it wasn't bad enough already!
     
  10. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    If you really want DIAD, a well thought out video poker strategy is almost certain to provide better bang for your buck. Plus you can definitively track your TCs so you know when you've hit it.
     
    Return to Greatness
  11. CMUCPA14

    CMUCPA14 Low-Roller

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    Agreed, for what it's worth, I'm already Diamond and I got it by grinding out VP. This was more a matter of being bored at work 4 days before Vegas than a practical guide for people to hit DIAD. Alrhough as you know, I've seen people blow way more than $2-3k in Vegas and have much less to show for it!
     
  12. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    If you are talking about roulette machines, I don't know how many TCs you get. I think there are some places that may not give any (or at least you may not get Reward Credits/Express Comps on those machine-based "table games." I haven't played them so I haven't kept track of what the setups are at the various chains.

    My calcs were based on the regular version of roulette. But at best, I would figure the machine version would only give TCs at 1/2 the rate of slots. if that was the case, then my original calcs would apply.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2017
  13. CMUCPA14

    CMUCPA14 Low-Roller

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    Agreed, I'll check it out when I'm there this weekend but my guess would be in line with your assumptions... close to $10/TC, similar to VP.
     
  14. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Might want to peruse this thread or research into Founders Card

    Gambling for Diamond status is pure folly. You are getting nowhere near ROI for it, especially for a new player who might not make many trips.

    But if the Founders Card deal is still working, then you are talking 300-400 fixed cost.

    Oh, and based on my experience with CET, I would be flat out shocked if playing roulette got you anywhere NEAR that rate of tier credits. Aside from the difference in house advantage, running those games has more overhead than machines.

    And there there is a matter of how they rate it. Machines track coin in. Usually table games (I don't know roulette specifically but i imagine it is the same) rate your average bet and play time. So what happens when you do your 50 spins and the pit boss thinks you only did 20? Or didn't see all the action? Plus it can take awhile for your point to get updated, so unlike a machine it is tough to know the second you hit your 5000 tier for the full bonus.
     
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  15. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    agree with all @Nevyn said above.
    If you play roulette, you may end up get 0 TC, but your loss is guaranteed to be $1800.

    Playing slots, you are gambling and you have a chance to win something.
    Playing both red and black on roulette, you are not gambling because you never ever win, not a penny.
    Throw you money on the street so that some homeless folks can get some of it,
    it would be 100 times better than your plan and the result for you would be the same anyway.
     
  16. Lmarl72936

    Lmarl72936 Low-Roller

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    The roulette machines gives you 1 point for every $25 you put in. I really enjoy playing the roulette machine vs actual live dealer. Its not a viable way to obtain diamond a day.
     
  17. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    1. Comps are tied to play, not to card level.
    2. Read #1

    Rinse, repeat.
    Rinse, repeat.


    Small print - if you do all of that play on one trip and drop a few thousand, you will get some offers to come back. NOT because you are Diamond, but because you played hard. They hope you will do it again.

    Back to rule #1.
     
  18. CMUCPA14

    CMUCPA14 Low-Roller

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    I agree on all points, not something I planned on doing it was more of a hypothetical situation. In my opinion, best way to hit diamond is grinding out video poker. That is how I got mine.
     
  19. buffalo

    buffalo Low-Roller

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    Here's an alternative we've used to get 1000 TC quickly. At Bally's in the high limit room there are a few slot machines that give 2X TC and 2X reward credits. We play them at $5/spin and get 2TC per spin. No idea if they're set at 90% or 75%, but have walked away twice up a few hundred. Last played them in December.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    I see nothing on the signage that indicates 2X TC. (and yes, I've been by that carousel)

    However, I will go by on my next trip just to verify.
     
    Another NGO trip. QQQQ/NYNY
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