Table Games Double down %. Other BJ players notice this?

From playing hundreds of hours over many many years, my observations are that the KEY factor to a winning session vs a losing one is double down %.

Obviously for those that count it is that, but for those of us that use perfect basic strat but do not count ( it gives me headaches to count and drains all energy - for me ). Much more than how many BJs or splits or anything else it is "how well my DDs are doing" that affects my results. Have a mediocre or bad DD session and you are doomed. Pull a lot of Xs or good cards on soft hands and that puts you over the edge and in the black.

Because you DD only when at an advantage - in basic strat - if you hit at 50% or less in a particular session it just cannot be overcome - in my experiences.

Any others agree - or disagree?

 

If I've gotten my ass kicked at a blackjack table it is almost always because I couldn't get my double downs to pay off. There have been times where I am up big but then you have a couple bad double downs and all of the sudden you are back to even or down. That's why I was a big fan of Free Bet until they changed it to 6:5.

 

Add in a couple bad DAS and that makes a losing session especially when at the top end of your progression

 

Agreed!!! usually if my double downs go well, so does my bankroll

 

I have a "gift" that it seems no matter what my (hard) DD opportunity is, I can pull an ace on my 11 or a 2/3 on my 9 or 10. Ironically, my soft hand DD's almost always pay. Go figure.

But usually, anytime I can put more money on the table, I consider it as a good money making opportunity, IMO.

 

I agree. I'd say the vast proportion of my BJ session outcomes are determined by how I did on my DDs. Not so much so on splits as I can go complete sessions without ever splitting.

 

In November I played some free bet at the mirage, always enjoyed it when they had it at Hollywood Columbus. I completely got my ass kicked. I had probably 6-7 good hands with splits or double downs (dealer showing 5 or 6). I pushed both hands the first 5 times then lost a couple. After that dealer drew to 21 multiple hands in a row and suddenly my buy in was gone.

I completely agree on hitting your double downs and splits to have a good winning session. Unfortunately, it has been a while since I had one.

Todd

 

Yep. If you're not making the DD/Splits work, it's just a sloooow bleed.

 

I don't mind the slow bleeds. It's the fast deaths that are painful and make me question why I play such a stupid game.

 

I look at it this way: whenever I get one of those hands where I double and split my way to 4+ bets out on the table, the card that the dealer pulls is essentially worth an 8-bet swing. So when I'm at a $10 table and the dealer busts, I made $40 instead of potentially losing $40. Prorate that to whatever your betting increments are, but it's still going to make up the lion's share of your win/loss for the session, provided your bets stay relatively consistent.

When I get a couple hands like that, the outcome of those hands will almost certainly be the difference between leaving up, or leaving down.

 

THIS THREAD. SO MUCH THIS THREAD. I feel like anytime I break through on a run, I get a majority of double downs. This makes a good run to a great run. How often are you left thinking, man, I had a pair of winning streaks of 6 in a row, but I wouldn't have lost that double down in between...

 

I think this is true, and let me add that there is nothing worse than a session where you get DD after DD opportunity and get slogged several times in a row with little cards. That can clean you out pretty quickly.

 

I agree. Usually you are happy breaking even on your non-DD hands, and hope to get favorable on your DD's.

 

early in my blackjack playing days
i had worked up to betting $500/hand
and that was a BIG deal as i was still starting off at $15-20 as my opening bet then

i ended up with 9-9 against dealer 6
split
end up with 9-10 and 9-2
double down on the 9-2
ended up drawing a 9 to make 20
so i'm feeling pretty good about my 19 and 20 against a dealer 6
...
dealer pulls a 5 or 6-card 21 .................. that $1500 swing crushed me
and i actually quit playing blackjack for over a year (maybe even 2)
i shifted to playing no limit texas hold 'em for many years after that

 

If only I had a dollar for every double down 12 hand I've played.................

 

I feel your pain. I had a hand like that in AC at the Showboat back in '95. I did the same thing as you. I worked my way up from $15 per hand to betting blacks. Split nines and ending up doubling on both with pat hands with two 18s vs a five up for the dealer. Dealer had a ten in the hole and pulled the four of diamonds. After 20+ years I can still see her turning over that four......A very, very painful $800 swing for me at the time.

 

Completely agree.

And the sad thing is, some of my friends let their failed DDs early in a session affect their adherence to basic strategy. They'll start passing up obvious DDs (11 vs dealer 5/6) which is a pretty big negative impact on long term results.

In such cases when I notice my friend is grimacing at a DD opportunity, I'll offer to buy their DD for them. Which only seems to tilt them even more. So I don't offer any more. Oh well, what can you do?

 

So many times a DD after a split ends up being what I call my "going home hand" but it's what we play the game for and you have to take these opportunities when given.

 

That's what I always tell my friends that are apprehensive. You don't play this game to flat bet the entire game. The only way to come ahead is my making the big bets when you have the opportunity to do so.

 

One of my friends sometimes does that and it is unimaginable to me. He otherwise plays basic strat but he says that for hands that are barely above 50-50 to DD, it shouldn't matter much and he gets in what I call "weenie mode" where he passes on DD opps when he is doing poorly for the session ( which makes him do even poorer overall IMO ). I ask him what "other" >50% bet he is saving that $ to bet on? He also doesn't like splitting 8s against 9,X.A but I remind him that it "loses you less" over time and thus is still a loser but not as much as a 16 is. So he does do it but whines about it every time. Some don't get the logic/math as well as others. LOL He won't let others DD for him because he wants the option to hit again to still be on the table - which I can understand if he is going to screw it up might as well keep the option of hitting again on anything under hard 12.

But I admit not to like playing with "seat o' pants" players that don't know basic strat and guess ( and thus slow the game down to a crawl ). Missing a lot of DD and "+EV" split opps seems like "throwing away $" to me and I genuinely want all the players at my tables to win and have fun - it makes it that much better for all. Thus I almost always point out dealer mistakes that cost others - but not me - just to make sure no one at the table gets ripped off or inadvertently cheated. I also ask bad players to ask the dealer for advice if they are unsure - and will give them basic strat advice if they ask me instead of the dealer. Telling them what the "book" says to do - as dealers/pitstiff call basic strat - is preferable to watching them LOSE so much. I also like faster play.

I also don't get those that bet more than the minimum on line bets in craps and then ignore taking odds bets at all. 0vig odds bets are the whole REASON to play craps AT ALL IMO. Without them I'd NEVER EVER play that game.