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Table Games Critique my Craps Betting Strategy

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by LVisBeautiful, Sep 12, 2018.

  1. LVisBeautiful

    LVisBeautiful Low-Roller

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    Lay it on me peeps; I have been low key trying bubble and organic craps (where I don't have the awkwardness of being a don't bettor) and its a grind bet; but it keeps me in the action (or has done so far).

    Warm Table Strategy:

    I play a 3 point molly and I play one hardway on the point if its a 4, 6, 8, 10. If the shooter is HOT, and the point hardway hits, I 1/2 press it up and replace it after the come out roll so real money can be won...(because craps is fun right?!!

    Theory - the 3 point molly has been mathematically supported in several posts on this board as well as 2 podcasts I listen too, its an excellent beginner bet and easy to keep track of on a busy table. The hardway betting is a little house edgy, but with it being on only one point its a low bankroll and it gets to stay up the entire time until 7 out; by pulling down about 1/2 of a hardway win, So a $10 hard 4 gets 7:1 and you get $70, I'd either put $30-40 back on hard 4 after the next come out roll; again a hot shooter could really ramp up the profits. I also replace the new point hardway if its a hardway-type point 4,6,8,10 etc. So I could potentially have 2 hardways working.

    Cold Table Strategy:

    I do this on super cold tables where the group has sevened within the first 6 rolls or when I have a "feeling" things are getting icy.

    Pass Line Bet then take odds

    Lay 4, 9, 10

    Place 6, 8

    (do not lay and place number if one of these is the point)

    Play the Field for three rolls

    Start Moving Lay bets one at a time to the come line and take odds

    Theory..the field takes cancels out any lay loss if one of the lay numbers hits and the lay bets insure you against an early 7 out on a cold table. Yes its the field a house edge bet, but its like a craps check insurance policy too..another house edge bet. The place bets hit all the relevant points, and if you catch a hot shooter, you can still get in after 3 rolls.

    Other thoughts...Wizard of Odds folks will be nasty to me, but on a small bankroll and a short time at the table can we really even say we are in the high math level of things?

    Ready to hear the harsh realities. Have at it.
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2018
  2. Here2Learn

    Here2Learn Tourist

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    With a cold table you're hedging your bets which would lead to a bank roll loss over time regardless
     
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  3. WINGSFAN2012

    WINGSFAN2012 High-Roller

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    limited budget I can completely relate too....I would rather do more frequent trips to my locals then a bigger trip...in my mind it gives me more chances to catch a "hot" table.....

    Playing the Don't side I can not comment on as I don't play it (but I also don't condemn those who do)
     
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  4. Here2Learn

    Here2Learn Tourist

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    I tried a couple times playing the pass line with a placed 6 and 8 along with a large dont come to hedge.

    Won 2k once with 300 bucks then lost 300 about 4 times lol.
     
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  5. SuperCoop

    SuperCoop Low-Roller

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    I don’t profess to having any mastery of craps or even a decent command of advanced strategy, but I like your aggression on the hard ways on a “warm table”.

    I personally press hardways a little slower ($10 goes to $20, then $50, then $100) but that’s because I come back on the hardways if that # is hit and I use the hardway winnings to bankroll hardway starter bets.

    Like WingsFan,I have no clue about the don’t side. Also don’t care if somebody is betting the don’t. Best bit of strategy for a cold table is to Walk Away!!!
     
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  6. LVisBeautiful

    LVisBeautiful Low-Roller

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    SuperCoop, so right, I forgot about walking away. I'm pretty sure people forgetting is why those new casinos get built every day! Thanks for that reminder :)
     
  7. LVisBeautiful

    LVisBeautiful Low-Roller

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    How much did you hedge on the don't come line?
     
  8. woodsie

    woodsie High-Roller

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    I (100% respectfully) disagree. There is no such thing as a hot or a cold table in foresight. It's always in hindsight that things went well or didn't go well.

    The best strategy is to have a strategy is based on getting the kind of action you want, at a price you can afford, while limiting the house edge.

    I leave that pretty wide open because for some people the action they want is 30 to 1 payouts on a single roll and therefore their only choice is to hit up the high house edge center bets.
     
  9. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    While the "logical" & "rational" part of my brain knows that this is true, we all have "felt" when a table goes "cold"... no, not in foresight, but following a string of bad outcomes...outcomes that are worse than the normal house advantage percentages that one would normally expect.
    Yeah - I know - that's variance for you....still, nothing wrong with changing tables if you "feel" like the one you're on has gone "cold".... and for the same reason: It actually doesn't matter (mathematically), so there's no harm in moving to another table where you "feel" better about your chances!
    ;)
    :beer:
     
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  10. Here2Learn

    Here2Learn Tourist

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    75 with a 3 dollar yo
     
  11. WINGSFAN2012

    WINGSFAN2012 High-Roller

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    And to take it a step further, if you are a "regular pass line" bettor, no strategy of any type works if you have a table that is point, 7 out, point, 7 out, point 7 out, point 7 out like I had at a local about 3 weeks ago..............
     
  12. WINGSFAN2012

    WINGSFAN2012 High-Roller

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    And on said "hot table" is when I open up and press my place bets accordingly and jump in and play and press the hardways...........my larger budget and a "hot table" do open me up to be a lot more aggressive......
     
  13. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    I too clearly having a betting strategy for hot and cold tables.
    The problem is it can be difficult to tell which is which at times which then invalidates any type of betting scheme.
     
  14. HardAte

    HardAte MIA

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    That's because knowing when a table is "hot" and "cold" is hindsight and is completely useless for determining future rolls. Think about it. Having a 30 minute roll has no effect on whether the next shooter will roll for 30 minutes or seven out right away. Just another superstition that way too many people get emotional over at the table. Over thousands of rolls of the dice, there will be times when the 7 hits an unusually high # of rolls and there will be times where it won't show for an unusually high # of rolls. In other words, the math evens out over time, but it rarely gets there the way it should (For example, the math says the 7 should show once every 6 throws, but it doesn't always come every 6th roll. It comes in strings and droughts.)
     
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  15. Calder

    Calder Low-Roller

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    I just bet in amounts that I can afford, avoid the high-edge bets (okay, an occasional hardway, sue me!), and enjoy the show at the table. Revel in others' superstitions; no other game attracts a more varied cast of characters, or is more fun when things are running well.

    Actually, I think it says there is a 1 in 6 chance for a seven on the next roll, not exactly the same thing, though I'm in agreement with your sentiments. The next roll is as chaotic as the last.
     
  16. HardAte

    HardAte MIA

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    If there is a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 7 any given roll, over time that also means on average it should show once every 6 rolls. In a perfect world that means it would come every 6th roll, but this is not a perfect world.
     
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  17. Ed from Bor

    Ed from Bor Tourist

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    Respectfully....

    You have too much action. You need to clean it up a bit.
    Anything outside of the Pass, Don't Pass, and the Place 6 & 8 is a little bit "house edgy"
    The 'Three Point Molly' has been mathematically proven to do what? I dispute that it does anything different than any other bet in any and all situations. I also disagree that it's an easy bet for beginners. Mixing Come bets with Line bets and taking odds encompasses a few different set of rules not obviously apparent to new players. Though simple once you get the hang of it. It also does not even remotely sound like something that can be done with a small bankroll.
    It will however perform wonderfully when used against a hot shooter, and the reward for successful hardway bets will be large chunks of units won.

    Personally, I don't like to lose more than one bet when the 7 shows. I also try to resist hedging. Difficult to resist hedging a lay bet with a hardway.

    Let me explain the failure of hedging....

    Playing a Doey/Don't one would think that putting money on the 12 during the 'come out' is the perfect hedge. Nice, clean, and neat. Simple.
    The reality of this hedge and every hedge imaginable, is that the payout on the 12 will never be enough to cover all the money lost betting for the 12, let alone any additional losses accrued on the lost Pass Line bet.

    IMO, all this hedging is too much action. All of it with a negative expectation that is not restricted to only showing in the long run, it can very well bite you immediately in the short run. And if it does, there is no chance of profiting off it temporarily, ever.

    Encouragingly.....

    You should play with any combination of action that you are comfortable with and enjoy. There is no "wrong way" to gamble. With no way to win, there is no "right way".

    Ed