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Coronavirus / COVID-19 Information

Discussion in 'Coronavirus in Las Vegas' started by Sonya, Feb 27, 2020.

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  1. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

    Joined:
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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 11/16:

    Test positivity is UP: 7-day avg is 30.4%, or 15.4% using state method

    Hospitalizations are UP: 1,157, just eight shy of this summer's record

    Cases are UP: 1,491 new cases/day on avg (+59)

    8 days to improve before new restrictions

    Some things worth elaborating on: Our peak hospitalizations was 1,165 this summer on July 31. We're almost back at that number now with 1,157 hospitalizations. Clark hospitalizations are climbing too, but this surge is being fueled by Washoe.

    Also though I tweet out yesterday's avg case number since today's is usually a little lower than we'd expect it to be b/c Washoe doesn't report until the afternoon... today's 7-day avg is already higher that yesterday's — 1,537, without Washoe even reporting.

    The big jump in today's seven-day average in large part has to do with the fact that Carson City reported a record 351 (!!) new cases today. Previous record was 103. Confirmed the spike it primarily related to the outbreak at Warm Springs Correctional Center.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada





    Friday Night I reported about Governor Sisolak getting a positive rapid test, and PCR was pending. The PCR Test Was Also Positive.

    sisolak1.jpg
    sisolak2.jpg







    Moderna's Vaccine Found to be 95% Effective in Preliminary Analysis:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/16/covid-moderna-vaccine/




    40% in US Planning Large Gatherings for Holidays Despite Warnings:
    https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/11/12/40-in-US-planning-large-gatherings-for-holidays-despite-COVID-19-warnings/1161605213219/

    Please heed the warnings from health professionals and scale back your Thanksgiving plans to groups of less than 10, and preferably only with the people inside your immediate household.




    Is It Safe To Get Together With Loved Ones This Thanksgiving? We Asked 7 Experts.
    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/davidmack/coronavirus-thanksgiving-holiday-travel-safety-tips





    California Governor "pulls emergency brake" on reopenings amid COVID Surge:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/california-coronavirus-surge-roll-back-reopening

     
    • Informative Informative x 7
  2. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

    Joined:
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    Location:
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    Trips to Las Vegas:
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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 11/17:

    Test positivity is high: 7-day avg is 30.3%, or 15.6% using state method

    Hospitalizations are up: 1,159, just six shy of this summer's record

    Cases are up: 1,590 new cases/day on avg (+97)

    7 days to improve before new restrictions

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada



    LVRJ Coverage of Nevada's COVID Numbers:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/nevada-reports-27-covid-19-deaths-along-with-1697-new-cases-2185366/




    Las Vegas Ranked Top 5 Thanksgiving Getaways, Despite COVID Spike:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/tourism/las-vegas-ranked-top-5-thanksgiving-getaway-despite-covid-spike-2185224/




    CDC Recommends Avoiding The "Three C's", Closed, Crowded, Close Contact:
    https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public
    • Avoid the 3Cs: spaces that are closed, crowded or involve close contact.
      • Outbreaks have been reported in restaurants, choir practices, fitness classes, nightclubs, offices and places of worship where people have gathered, often in crowded indoor settings where they talk loudly, shout, breathe heavily or sing.
      • The risks of getting COVID-19 are higher in crowded and inadequately ventilated spaces where infected people spend long periods of time together in close proximity. These environments are where the virus appears to spreads by respiratory droplets or aerosols more efficiently, so taking precautions is even more important.



    ‘You can’t run away from the data’: Dr. Anthony Fauci on the rise in coronavirus cases.
    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/17/business/dealbook-summit?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes#you-cant-run-away-from-the-data-dr-anthony-fauci-on-the-rise-in-coronavirus-cases

    Here is the full discussion:





    This headline is just :blink:

    After Big Thanksgiving Dinners, Plan Small Christmas Funerals, Health Experts Warn
    https://www.mississippifreepress.org/7014/after-big-thanksgiving-dinners-plan-small-christmas-funerals-health-experts-warn/

     
    • Informative Informative x 5
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  3. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

    Joined:
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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 11/18:

    Test positivity is UP: 7-day avg is 34.2%, or 15.6% using state method

    Hospitalizations are UP: 1,246, setting a new record

    Cases are UP: 1,638 new cases/day on avg (+48)

    6 days to improve before new restrictions

    cases.jpg

    positivity.jpg

    The Nevada Hospital Association, in its daily report today, noted that the state "continues to see exponential growth in COVID-19 hospitalizations." "Current strategies are not successfully minimizing the spread of serious disease," it said.

    hospital.jpg

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada




    Today there was a call about COVID in Nevada:

    On the call were Governor Sisolak, Caleb Cage, who heads the Covid Response Team, and Julia Peek from the Division of Public and Behavioral Health.

    Governor Sisolak says he is doing fine, and thankfully has a mild case of COVID-19. He also spoke about the progress of his Stay at Home 2.0 orders:
    "To be blunt, our state is surging and continues to surge," he says. "I am incredibly concerned about the severity of COVID-19 in our state." He says we can expect to hear about next steps "very soon."

    Caleb Cage says there have been 125,459 positive cases so far. The state's test positivity rate has been 15.6 percent in the last 14 day period. "Nevada continues to see exponential growth in COVID-19 hospitalizations," Cage says. "Current strategies are not successfully minimizing the spread of this serious disease." Statewide hospital occupancy is at 81% Ventilator use is at 34%.

    When asked about whether or not there will be a shutdown next week, Governor Sisolak says: "We will have to wait and see what happens next week."

    "These restrictions only work if people follow them," Sisolak says. "If people continue to not wear a mask... or they refuse to comply with the group gatherings, saying it isn't going to make them work. It's people implementing them that makes them work." "I have faith in the citizens of the state of Nevada," Sisolak continues. "My hope is that if more and more people will see that they do work, these mitigation procedures do work, we'll all be better off in the long run."

    "We are gathering information on mitigation options that consider the balancing act between our public health and economic realities. The goal is to have the most impact on mitigating the spread and the least impact on our fragile economy. Nevadans should expect to hear from me on our status and next steps in the near future. I am aware of how consequential these decisions are & I continue to work with state health officials, emergency management & economic leaders to determine the best approach."



    There will be a meeting of the Coronavirus Task Force tomorrow to look at mitigation plans for the counties at elevated risk, including Clark County, tomorrow.



    Here is the Nevada Current article on the phone call:
    https://www.nevadacurrent.com/blog/limping-along-until-vaccine-comes-isnt-an-option-sisolak-says/




    Things are kind of bad all over the US right now. We just passed the Quarter Million Deaths benchmark. People should be reevaluating plans and finding ways to stay at home more often and do less gathering with people outside your household, especially in indoor settings.

    nyt1118.JPG





    Rollbacks, Closures, Curfews: Gaming Industry Faces Latest COVID Surge:
    https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/commentaries/rollbacks-closures-curfews-gaming-industry-faces-down-the-newest-covid-surge/




    Nevada Casinos and COVID-19: Should They Be Open? It's Complicated, Experts Say:
    https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2020/07/23/covid-nevada-las-vegas-should-casinos-stay-open-strip-coronavirus/5479733002/





    New Pfizer Vaccine Results:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/health/pfizer-covid-vaccine.html

    This is great news. It appears that these vaccines will work. Their data shows that of the 170 cases of Coronavirus in the study, 162 occurred in the placebo group. Of the 10 severe cases, 9 were in the placebo group.

    There is still concern about the White House Task Force not sharing data and working together with the Biden Administration on the rollout of the vaccine. There is talk that this lapse may delay the vaccine weeks to months. If you're concerned about that, please take a moment and call your senator and encourage them in supporting the administration to start working with the transition team, especially on the vaccine roll out. We all want to put this behind us. You can reach the Capitol Switchboard at (202) 224-3121.




    More Nevadans Now Hospitalized with COVID Than Any Time in the Pandemic:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/more-nevadans-now-hospitalized-for-covid-19-than-any-stage-of-pandemic-2185959/

    Be careful out there, please.
     
    • Informative Informative x 9
  4. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

    Joined:
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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 11/19:

    Test positivity is UP: 7-day avg is 35.4%, or 15.6% using state method
    Hospitalizations are UP: 1,288 (+42), again a new record
    Cases are UP: 1,759 new cases/day on avg (+121), a new record
    5 days to improve before new restrictions

    Notable updates today: Clark County has now surpassed 100,000 cases. Total cases stand at 100,552 cases today, a 1,622 increase from yesterday, again, a new record single-day total. And Washoe reported a record 610 cases yesterday and will probably pass 20,000 today.

    We're now seeing record cases, test positivity and hospitalizations statewide. Deaths have also started to climb a bit, though again these trends tend to lag cases and other trends.

    deaths.jpg

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada




    Today was also meeting day for the Coronavirus Mitigation Task Force:

    Terry Reynolds, director of the Department of Business and Industry, says that they've seen some "slippage" in compliance. They've also been seeing some issues with stores not following guidelines for capacity.

    The Nevada Hospital Association's Chris Lake says some hospitals are experiencing staffing challenges. He says hospitals are working to contract w/ traveling nurses, but they are getting harder to come by.

    State biostatistician Kyra Morgan says Nevada is now outpacing Arizona and California in cases per 100,000 residents. She also notes that while the state has exceeded its previous peak in hospitalizations, it hasn't exceeded its previous peak in hospitalizations -- meaning less folks in the ICU or on ventilators.

    Morgan talks about the new COVID-19 event risk assessment planning tool from Georgia Tech. It estimates that if you attend an event here in Nevada with 50 people, there's a 67% chance there's one positive individual in that group.

    gatech.jpg

    Julia Peek, deputy administrator of the Division of Public and Behavioral Health, says 75% of cases right now are not linked to another case which means they are attributed just to general community spread.

    Caleb Cage, Nevada's COVID-19 response director: "Every trend is climbing in the state of Nevada."

    First county up is Douglas County - They have been getting a lot of negative comments in response to its public information campaign. They report good compliance overall. Most cases are traced to Grocery Stores or Retail Shopping, not gatherings. (meaning high community spread). Caleb Cage reminds the county that they allowed a large political rally, despite advice against that.

    Washoe County is next - District Health Officer Kevin Dick says hospital administrators are quite concerned about what's coming their way, not just in Washoe, but all over Nevada. Washoe County Manager Eric Brown talks about gatherings, including two Halloween parties with 150 and 500 people in attendance. "These are the kind of behaviors that go beyond our enforcement." Washoe County recommends the governor restrict gatherings be limited to 10 people.

    Clark County doesn't have any advice on what the governor should do as far as any rollbacks. The Southern Nevada Health District also acknowledged that given the number of active cases in Clark County, they do not have enough staff to monitor every single case and ensure that they are quarantining.

    Nye County recommends messaging from the state Division of Public and Behavioral Health to urge people to change their behaviors to limit the spread of COVID-19.

    Humbolt County wants to send a letter to retailers "reminding retailers and consumers to work toward a COVID-free Christmas.".

    Caleb Cage is asking all these counties for suggestions for the Governor and many are suggesting limiting gatherings to 10 or fewer people. But what does that mean for casinos? I have heard nothing about them on this call.

    Elko County's presentation includes this photo of Commissioner Delmo Andreozzi encouraging people to wear masks:
    elko.jpg

    Commissioner Delmo Andreozzi says part of the issue is how does the government market to people, "What's in it for me?" He also said part of the problem is he doesn't know what the goal is right now statewide.

    Next up is Lyon County Manager Jeff Page who says "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink." He agrees there needs to be clear messaging on what is expected and what the goals are. "If people see what the problem is ... when the guy from Renown gets up with the governor and talks about how bad it is for his hospital, and when people see those kinds of things, they pay attention."

    Page adds that he goes home in the dark so people can't see him. He's tired of "getting beat up by the general public" over what politicians are doing.

    Carson County is last, and notably they request that the Department of Corrections set up a field hospital to deal with the Covid cases at Warm Springs, so they aren't sent to Carson-Tahoe.

    And that's all for that meeting. Nothing decided yet, but the Governor has some difficult decisions to make in the next week or so.



    Oh, one more statement from Dr. Fermin Leguen, chief health officer for the Southern Nevada Health District:

    “The best gift you can give your family and friends this season is ensuring they remain safe and healthy and are not put at risk of getting or spreading COVID-19,”



    Joint Statement from Nevada Hospitals and Health Systems on Our Shared Commitment to COVID-19 Safety
    https://nvha.net/joint-statement-from-nevada-hospitals-and-health-systems-on-our-shared-commitment-to-covid-19-safety/





    Nevada Sets Another Record for COVID Cases:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nevada-sets-another-record-for-new-coronavirus-cases-2186605/





    CDC Issues New Guidance for the Holidays:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/holidays/thanksgiving.html





    How Many Americans Are About to Die?
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/11/coronavirus-death-rate-third-surge/617150/

     
    • Informative Informative x 6
  5. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

    Joined:
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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 11/20:

    Test positivity is up: 7-day avg is 38.9%, or 15.8% using state method
    Hospitalizations are slightly down: 1,283 (-5)
    Cases are up: 1,835 new cases/day on avg (+74), a new record
    4 days to improve before new restrictions

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada



    31st Edition: Coronavirus Contextualized:
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/coronavirus-contextualized-31st-edition-exploring-through-data-covid-19-in-nevada-and-beyond

    I want to pull out a few sentences of this week's numbers:

    Regarding the case numbers, the fact that 10% of total cases confirmed in the state occurred in the last seven days, indicates a huge spike in spread. Add to that the contact tracing doesn't point back to specific events, but to general community spread (majority are infected at places like retail or grocery shopping, per yesterday's Task Force Meeting) and it is even more alarming. The spread in Nevada is out of control right now.

    If the average number of new deaths over the last week is 11.1 now and up from 4.1 at the end of LAST MONTH, we are in the middle of a large spike in hospitalizations and resulting death from some of those cases, meaning this virus is still deadly.

    The Governor had to implement a mask mandate in order to control that summer spread, but now we're even higher than that.

    Please reconsider your plans to visit Nevada if you, or someone in close contact to you is at high risk for this virus.





    Mirage and Mandalay Bay to Close Midweek, Starting November 30th:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/more-mgm-properties-closing-guest-rooms-midweek-2187304/




    Is Another Shut Down Coming?
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/las-vegas-economy-still-reeling-from-1st-shutdown-is-another-coming-2187179/



    This article is about yesterday's Covid Task Force Meeting:

    Counties Urge Clear Messaging from Sisolak on New Restrictions:
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/counties-urge-clear-messaging-from-sisolak-in-advance-of-new-coronavirus-restrictions





    McCarran Sees 2 Million Passengers in October:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/tourism/las-vegas-mccarran-airport-sees-nearly-2m-passengers-in-october-2186701/





    This Is How We Treat Each Other?
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/18/health-care-worker-threats-coronavirus/

    This is from the Post's Voices from the Pandemic series and it's the one that is really upsetting to me. I believe this woman's story, because I get emails and PM's from people here that say basically the same thing.

    Shame on anyone who is harassing these public servants who are doing their best to keep you safe. And an even deeper shame on every single person out there who is politicizing public health in the middle of a pandemic. There is sound science behind the guidelines to wear a mask, wash your hands and keep your distance. There is no reason to call someone a bitch or threaten them because you choose not to believe in the science.




    Just FYI, several of you are contacting me about what plans Governor Sisolak has for further restrictions if the numbers don't start to decrease in the next few days. I do not have any solid information on that. I promise that I'm closely monitoring the Governor's office and as soon as there is any indication of what comes next for the Las Vegas Casinos, I will post it on the board.

    I have been asking around people I know who are on the fringes of casino management, in the media, and residents of Nevada. None of the are able to read these tea leaves either.

    What is clear is that Nevada, along with a number of states right now, is in a difficult situation. I have heard the Governor say several times that he does not want to close down the casinos, because of the economic impact and the fact so many Nevadans would end up on unemployment. However, all the things he has tried to slow the spread has met resistance with people refusing to wear a mask, and not taking distancing and limiting group gatherings seriously.

    Here is my speculation - I do not believe that Sisolak will suddenly close all the casinos right before the Holiday weekend. It is certainly possible, but I'd be surprised. Looking at the announcement that Mirage and MBay will close during the week, starting the Monday after Thanksgiving, I'd expect the Governor not to implement any new restrictions until after the weekend. Of course, I could be wrong, and I urge everyone who is traveling in the next week to be ready to adjust your plans, depending on what comes out of the governor's office next week. If anything comes out.

    I know the uncertainty is difficult, but this is the world we are living in right now. I do not envy Sisolak in having to balance between saving lives and protecting the economy of his state. It's an unenviable position and I hope that he makes a good decision that can help save our favorite little desert city.



    I do not plan to do any updates on this thread this weekend, unless there is some big, breaking news.

    Also, with there being a holiday next week, I will not be doing updates Wed - Sun. I will be sure to post all the links and information you need to find the daily Nevada numbers yourself, but I need a little time off, if I can get it. I won't be totally away from the board and I plan to keep my eyes on the news. I'm just not making updating this thread a priority over the extended holiday weekend.

    Thanks again for reading. I hope this information is helpful to some of you. Stay safe. Wear your mask. Take care of yourself, and each other. There is hope in 2021. Let's just get through this winter.
     
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  6. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

    Joined:
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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 11/23:

    Test positivity is high: 7-day avg is 35.9%, or 16.7% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,274 but down from a recent peak
    Cases are up: 1,993 new cases/day on avg (+93), a new record
    New restrictions start at 12:01 a.m.

    cases.jpg

    Some things of note, cases continue to climb but we've seen some fluctuations in hospital numbers. The peak was 1,288 on Nov. 18 and we're at 1,274 as of yesterday.

    Looking at the county numbers, Washoe reached a new peak yesterday, 483 (we'll see what numbers they report today), while Clark also reached a new peak today, 1,377. We've seen climbing numbers in other counties too.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada



    The big news over the weekend was the new restrictions put in place by Governor Sisolak. Basically capacity is lowered to 25% and restaurants now require reservations for any dine-in options. I started a new thread on the topic here - https://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/index.php?threads/sisolak-new-restrictions-starting-12-01am-tuesday-november-24-2020.179478/



    Here is what you need to know about the new restrictions in Vegas:
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/11/23/las-vegas-covid-19-restrictions-what-know-nevadas-new-rules/6393368002/




    Nevada Facing Double Bind of Rising Cases, Limping Economy:
    https://apnews.com/article/las-vegas-nevada-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-990b71f7dc45ebe171e69cc242ef4e4a





    Nevada ER Doctor: Flatten the Curve Now, or COVID-19 Could Flatten Our Community:
    https://www.rgj.com/story/opinion/2020/11/23/reno-er-doctor-says-covid-19-surge-major-threat-community/6391962002/





    Sturgis Rally Ignited COVID Cases in Minnesota, Study Says:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nation-and-world/sturgis-rally-ignited-covid-19-cases-in-minnesota-study-says-2187793/




    CDC Upgrades Cruise Ship COVID Risk to Highest Level:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article247355354.html





    Mask Mandates Work To Slow Spread Of Coronavirus, Kansas Study Finds
    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/23/937173060/mask-mandates-work-to-slow-spread-of-coronavirus-kansas-study-finds




    Third Major Coronavirus Vaccine Shown to be Effective and Cheaper:
    https://apnews.com/article/astrazeneca-vaccine-third-cheaper-oxford-c99d26eb2946f6fde45a1edc002ff028





    And lastly, I thought this article was fascinating about "teleoanticipation", a term I wasn't familiar with and how it relates to ultramarathons and knowing where the finish line is and how it effects your psyche. It has a lot of good information on how best to approach the timing of the vaccine and when this coronavirus stuff will be "behind us".

    COVID-19 Is Like Running a Marathon with no Finish Line:
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-covid-19-is-like-running-a-marathon-with-no-finish-line-what-does/



    Just a couple of notes about this week. It's Thanksgiving and we're headed out to the beach condo for a few days of relaxation, long walks, and turkey. I will post articles and numbers tomorrow, but for the rest of the week and weekend, it may be hit and miss. If there's something important, I'll be sure to share it with you, but I also am hoping to decompress and stop thinking about COVID for a few days. I'm also hoping to finally tackle that Dowdle Vegas jigsaw puzzle I bought back in the spring, with hopes there would be quiet time in quarantine for me. :)

    I hope all of you have a safe and happy Thanksgiving.
     
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  7. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

    Joined:
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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 11/24:

    Test positivity is high: 7-day avg is 35.4%, or 16.6% using test encounters

    Hospitalizations are up: 1,399 (+125), a record

    Cases are up: 2,039 new cases/day on avg (+46), a record

    21 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    cases.jpg

    Some notes: Clark County hit a new record single-day case total today, 2,219. The previous record was 1,622, set on Thursday. The county's seven-day average is a record 1,521 today.

    We saw a few days of fluctuations in the hospital numbers but then a big jump today, setting a new record. Hospitalizations are just one shy of 1,400. That just serves as a reminder that we want to see trends over weeks, and that there are day to day fluctuations.

    I also want to note that while COVID-19 is hitting Clark and Washoe County hard, it's also hitting rural Nevada hard too.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada


    Let's take another look at that cases chart. Back on September 24th, 2 months ago, there was talk about increasing cases as a result of Labor Day weekend travelers in Nevada. That day there were 432 new cases. Today is 2343 and it does not appear that Washoe County has posted their numbers yet.

    This is a huge increase in cases. Please be aware of the risk in travel to Nevada right now and be sure you are wearing your mask and doing your best to keep your distance from strangers.

    More from Megan Messerly:

    Just a reminder of the COVID-19 records Nevada set today:
    Single-day case total: 2,343 (will climb by end of day when other counties report)
    Seven-day average of new cases/day: 2,141 (will also climb)
    COVID-19 hospitalizations: 1,399

    Please stay safe.





    Hospitals Support New Restrictions, Say Next Few Weeks are "Critical"
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/local-nevada/hospitals-support-new-restrictions-say-next-few-weeks-critical-2189211/





    Room Rates Tumble Ahead of Holiday Weekend:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/room-rates-tumble-ahead-of-holiday-weekend-2189385/




    And one last thing for today - some data from the LVCVA about visitor data for October.

    visitordata.jpg


    October saw 1.8 million visitors, an increase of 9% over September, but down about half from 2019.

    That RevPAR is Room rates, or "Revenue Per Available Room" and it is down significantly year over year.




    That's probably it from me this week. I'll try to update if there's big news or new records set in the numbers, but I'm headed out to the beach tomorrow for a few days of walking north and south on the beach until I can't walk on the beach anymore. My dog is really looking forward to it.

    I hope everyone has a happy and safe Thanksgiving!
     
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  8. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

    Joined:
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    Hope everyone had a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving weekend. We had a wonderful relaxing time at the beach for a few days.

    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 11/30:

    Test positivity is up: 7-day avg is 37.4%, or 17.3% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,545 (+28), a record
    Cases are down: 2,306 new cases/day on avg (-136)
    15 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    One thing worth noting: It'll be worth seeing where the case numbers go in the coming days and weeks. Many testing sites were not open during the holidays, which could be contributing to the lower case numbers today, so we'll need to wait and see.

    It's also worth noting that it'll be a little bit before we see any spike associated with Thanksgiving gatherings either in the case data or the hospitalization data. Will be keeping an eye out for that in the days and weeks to come.

    But the short of it is, the recent high point was 2,442 (seven-day case average) yesterday. Over the summer, the high point was 1,176 — so the peak we're experiencing this fall is more than double what we saw over the summer.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada




    As Megan Messerly points out, the numbers are going to be a little quirky for the next few days, due to the holiday. Testing and reporting will be a little variable for the next few days.

    Covid Tracking Project wrote a post about it here - https://covidtracking.com/blog/daily-covid-19-data-is-about-to-get-weird/

    Daily Covid Data is About to Get Weird:




    Today sixteen of the seventeen counties in Nevada are flagged for "elevated disease transmission":

    counties.jpg



    Nevada has over 1,500 hospital patients infected with COVID-19 right now.

    Healthcare infrastructure is "showing signs of serious strain" in No. NV. In So. NV: infrastructure "has enough elasticity to absorb the increased cases for the time being."

    hospitalizations.JPG

    source: https://nvha.net/wp-content/uploads/Nov-29-Charts.pdf




    We are seeing faster increases in cases at this point. Look at the dates between each million cases in the US:

    U.S Coronavirus cases:

    Apr 28 - 1 Million
    Jun 10 - 2 Million
    Jul 7- 3 Million
    Jul 23 - 4 Million
    Aug 8 - 5 Million
    Aug 30 - 6 Million
    Sept 24 - 7 Million
    Oct 15 - 8 Million
    Oct 29 – 9 Million
    Nov 8 – 10 Million
    Nov 15 - 11 Million
    Nov 21 - 12 Million
    Nov 27 – 13 Million



    And here are the cases by month, as of this morning at 9am ET:

    US coronavirus cases by month in 2020:

    March: 186,200
    April: 883,199
    May: 723,166
    June: 845,736
    July: 1,926,970
    August: 1,479,756
    September: 1,215,901
    October: 1,940,522
    November: 4,252,822





    OpEd: On the COVID Frontlines, We're Tired of Hearing Lame Excuses for Risky Behavior:
    https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-11-23/medical-workers-angry-lame-coronavirus-excuses





    Airlines Stir Doubts With ‘Flying Is Safe’ Claim on Covid-19
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/airlines-stir-doubts-with-flying-is-safe-claim-on-covid-spread?sref=FOJjTUo9





    It's All About the Vaccine: Analyst Says Remedy Will Speed Strip's Recovery:
    https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/commentaries/its-all-about-the-vaccine-analyst-says-remedy-would-speed-strips-long-covid-recovery/

     
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  9. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/1:

    Test positivity is up: 7-day avg is 39.0%, or 17.6% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,589 (+44), a record
    Cases are down: 2,286 new cases/day on avg (-19)
    14 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    You'll notice a couple of changes to our COVID-19 data page today. For one, we now show you at the top of our data page which counties have been flagged as at elevated risk of disease transmission by the state each week. We also now include the state's testing encounters graph.

    counties.jpg

    encounters.jpg

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada




    And another note from Megan Messerly:

    Another not-so-fun fact: There are about 29,833 active cases of COVID-19 across Nevada. That means every one in 103 Nevadans is actively sick with COVID. (And that's just the people who actually went and got tested.)






    States With Few Coronavirus Restrictions Are Spreading the Virus Beyond Their Borders
    https://www.propublica.org/article/states-with-few-coronavirus-restrictions-are-spreading-the-virus-beyond-their-borders

    This article is centered on an eastern Washington resident who went to Idaho, where restrictions are looser, and got COVID at a music festival. I'm quoting just a snippet of the article of interest.





    State: Too Soon to see Thanksgiving Impact on COVID Cases:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/state-too-soon-to-see-thanksgiving-impact-on-covid-cases-2197155/




    Panel Recommends First to Receive COVID-19 Vaccine:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nation-and-world/panel-recommends-first-us-vaccine-recipients-2198484/



    vaccines.jpg

    Here are the recommended first groups to get the vaccine. It is going to be up to individual states to decide whether or not to adopt these guidelines and to figure out how to distribute the vaccines.

    If you are a health care professional, work in a long term care facility, are an "essential worker" or are at high risk and/or are over 65, you are considered to be in the first groups to get the vaccine. I would suggest you look for your state's plan and talk to your primary care physician and start making a plan for early vaccination.

    More information in this article:
    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/advisory-panel-meets-decide-who-should-get-first-covid-vaccines-n1249569

    23 million people in group 1a seems to mean that they are most likely to be the only group to receive the vaccine before the end of this year.

    The next group will be among these people:

    They will probably be vaccinated in the next batch of available vaccines early in 2021, with the wider population getting access to the vaccine in late spring or early summer, if the rollout and production goes smoothly.


    There is light at the end of the tunnel. Our job is to stay as healthy as we can until the vaccine is available. Please continue to wear your masks, keep your distance, wash your hands, and stay at home as much as you possibly can. We can get through this.
     
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  10. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/2:

    Test positivity remains high: 7-day avg is 39.0%, or 17.6% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,652 (+63), a record
    Cases are down: 2,103 new cases/day on avg (-183)
    13 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada

    Remember that the case numbers are going to be a little funky this week as we catch up after the holiday weekend Better to watch the trends with hospitalizations for this week, until things normalize again.

    hospitalizations.jpg






    White House Issues Report About COVID-19:

    WHCovid1.jpg

    WHCovid2.jpg

    Latest White House coronavirus task force report sent to states includes warning that “the COVID risk to all Americans is at a historic high” and that “we are in a very dangerous place due to the current, extremely high COVID baseline and limited hospital capacity.”

    The report also cautions that all the trips and gatherings from the Thanksgiving holiday will result in a surge that “will compromise COVID patient care, as well as medical care overall,”

    "It must be made clear that if you are over 65 or have significant health conditions, you should not enter any indoor public spaces where anyone is unmasked due to the immediate risk to your health; you should have groceries and medications delivered."






    CDC Shortens Quarantine Period to 10 Days With No Symptoms:
    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-shortens-quarantine-period-10-days-no-symptoms-n1249704


    Also, there was this quote:

    CDC DIRECTOR REDFIELD: "December, January and February are going to be rough times. I actually believe they're going to be the most difficult in the public health history of this nation."

    Please, stay home if you can. This is not the time to take risks with the vaccine so close and the case loads so high everywhere in the US.




    And Nevada Has Released this Guidance Based on the new CDC Recommendations:

    NVguidance1.jpg

    NVguidance2.jpg






    UK Becomes First Country to Approve Vaccine:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55145696





    Wynn CEO Sees Parallels to Roaring 20's for Las Vegas Recovery:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/wynn-ceo-sees-parallels-to-roaring-20s-for-las-vegas-recovery-2199839/




    What UNLV Researchers are Learning about COVID from Sewage:
    https://lasvegassun.com/news/2020/dec/02/unlv-researchers-learn-coronavirus-from-sewage/

     
    • Informative Informative x 7
  11. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/3:

    Test positivity is up: 7-day avg is 39.4%, or 18.1% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are down: 1,645 (-7)
    Cases are down: 2,097 new cases/day on avg (-11)
    12 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    It's been awhile since we talked about deaths, but I just wanted to note that deaths today have finally exceeded the peak from the summer. Yesterday's seven-day average matched that from the summer peak on Aug. 20, 20.7, but today the seven-day average is 22.1 so far.

    deaths.jpg

    We're also still waiting to see where the data trends post-Thanksgiving. Today's seven-day average (2,117) won't be final until Washoe, Elko and the Quad Counties report later, but it already exceeds yesterday's (2,097).

    A reminder that Washoe County District Health Officer Kevin Dick noted yesterday that it's possible the downward trend is a result of testing sites being closed over Thanksgiving and lab reporting delays over the holiday. We just don't know yet until we have more data.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada




    And when you look at the US as a whole -

    nyt.JPG


    We are breaking records pretty much daily at this point. Yesterday we had nearly a 9/11's worth of deaths from COVID. We also broke a record of almost 200,000 new cases and 100,000 people hospitalized with Covid. Please take care of yourself and stay home as much as possible. When you have to go out, please wear a mask and keep your distance from strangers.





    Governor Sisolak has a press conference yesterday where he talked about the plan for rolling out the vaccines for COVID.

    First COVID-19 Vaccines Could Arrive Mid-December, Will Go To Healthcare Workers and Nursing Home Residents First:
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/first-covid-19-vaccines-could-arrive-in-mid-december-will-go-to-frontline-health-care-workers-nursing-home-residents




    Nevada Records Highest 1-Day COVID Death Toll Since August:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/nevada-records-highest-1-day-covid-19-death-toll-since-mid-august-2200345/





    New York Times Tool for Calculating - When Can I get the Vaccine?

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

    You enter your age, location and answer a couple other question about your risk and the page will tell you how many people are "ahead of you in line" for the vaccine.





    COVID Vaccine May Cause Side Effects:
    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201124/people-should-know-that-covid-vaccine-might-spur-transient-sickness-cdc-experts#1

    I think this is an important point that I think people need to prepare for. The vaccine is going to cause some discomfort and possibly some symptoms of illness for a couple of days. Plan for this when you are scheduling your vaccination. I didn't know how sore and tired the shingles vaccine was going to make me, so when it was time for the second dose, I scheduled it for a Friday afternoon when I knew I could relax on the couch all weekend to recover. I will be making a similar plan for the Covid Vaccine.





    Pfizer Slashed Its Original Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Target After Supply-Chain Obstacles
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-slashed-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-target-after-facing-supply-chain-obstacles-11607027787?page=1





    Many Trial Volunteers Got Placebo Vaccines. Do They Now Deserve the Real Ones?
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/many-trial-volunteers-got-placebo-130805773.html





    I’m 33 Years Old. I Got COVID-19 Eight Months Ago. I’m Still Sick.
    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/covid-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-future-of-vaccine

     
    • Informative Informative x 7
  12. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Happy Friday, everybody! Today we take a deeper dive into the Nevada numbers, thanks to the tireless work of Megan Messerly at Nevada Independent.

    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/4:

    Test positivity is up: 7-day avg is 43.6%, or 18.4% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,678 (+33)
    Cases are up: 2,233 new cases/day on avg (+136)
    11 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    And reminder that you an always look here for the current Nevada Numbers: https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada



    And now for Coronavirus Contextualized, 32nd Edition:
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/coronavirus-contextualized-32nd-edition-exploring-through-data-covid-19-in-nevada-and-beyond

    TL;DR Version -

    An average of 2,233 new COVID-19 cases were reported each day over the last seven days as of Thursday, the first day to see an increase after four days of decreases. Still, that number is down from last week, when the seven-day average was 2,362.

    Nevada hit a record seven-day average of 2,441 on Saturday, more than double the previous record, 1,176, from the summer, the last time coronavirus cases surged.

    Two weeks ago the seven-day average was 1,835 and it was 1,380 the week before that. Cases have been rising since mid-September, when a low of 267 cases on average were reported each day.

    While cases have slightly decreased, Nevada’s test positivity rate — which looks at the percentage of tests or people coming back positive out of the total tested — continues to increase.

    Whichever calculation you use to look at test positivity, the trend is the same. Test positivity continues to increase across Nevada.

    Nevada has the second highest number of people hospitalized per capita, 53.6 people per 100,000 residents, only behind South Dakota, which has 60 people hospitalized per 100,000 residents.


    .... so, Nevada's numbers are still heading the wrong direction. Despite some wonky testing numbers, due to the holiday weekend, numbers are still all trending higher. We will get a better idea looking at trends in the next week or two, but more needs to be done in Nevada (and elsewhere) to get these numbers under control.





    California Implements Stay-At-Home Order Based on Hospital Capacity:
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/03/us/los-angeles-hospital-beds-christmas-covid/index.html




    Couple Arrested After Flying to Hawaii, Knowingly Positive for COVID-19:
    https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/covid-hawaii-couple-arrest/index.html

    Don't be like these people.



    Advocacy Group wants Casinos to Ban Indoor Smoking, or Be Exempt from COVID Relief Funds:
    https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/advocacy-group-wants-casinos-to-ban-indoor-smoking-or-be-exempt-from-covid-19-relief-funds/




    And last from me this week, I've been trying to come up with a way to present this study out of Korea about indoor spaces and transmissions of greater than 2 meters (6 feet). It's quite technical and there are some people on social media explaining it better than this layperson has been able to so far, but let me try. Here is the link to the study: https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415

    The bottom line is that indoor dining is not safe.

    "Case B infected case A from 6.5m (~21 feet!) away in *just five minutes*, and case C from 4.8m (15 feet!). Footage shows no interaction—and only those in line of air flow got infected."

    dining.jpg

    dining2.jpg

    The "common wisdom" for a lot of this pandemic on indoor dining has been that as long as you are six feet apart, only removing your masks while dining, and not lingering for longer than 15 minutes, everything should be fine. This study is contraindicative of that advice.

    Indoors, we should always wear a mask–there is no way to make indoor restaurants or bars safe, including those outside structures that are essentially indoor. Air flow and talking matter and, indoors, neither six feet nor 15 min are absolute protection.


    I found this article on the study, and some others like it, from Zeynep Tufecki, to be helpful.
    https://zeynep.substack.com/p/small-data-big-implications

    dining.jpg

    Comparing this Korean case to an earlier example of ventilation and exposure in a Japanese Restaurant as well as that Washington State Choir Practice, we can draw some conclusions.

    Stay safe this weekend!
     
    • Informative Informative x 6
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  13. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/7:

    Test positivity is up: 7-day avg is 39.4%, or 21.2% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,767 (+50), a record
    Cases are up: 2,519 new cases/day on avg (+153), a record
    8 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    Deaths statewide continue to rise. The seven-day average yesterday was 25.4 deaths/day. Saturday set a record seven-day average, 26.6 deaths/day on average.

    deaths.jpg

    The Nevada Hospital Association, in its report today, noted that 32% of hospitalized patients now have COVID-19 and 36% of patients in the ICU have COVID-19. In the past month, the number of hospitalized patients w/ COVID has increased more than 230%.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada




    Nevada Hospitals Nearing Capacity as State Adds 2,448 Cases of COVID-19:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/local-nevada/nevada-hospitals-nearing-capacity-as-state-adds-2448-covid-19-cases-2208270/





    Life is Almost Back to Normal in Melbourne, Australia. Here's How They Did It.
    https://www.vox.com/2020/12/4/22151242/melbourne-victoria-australia-covid-19-cases-lockdown




    Face Masks Considerably Reduce Coronavirus in Germany:
    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/12/02/2015954117





    Another Reason to Wear a Mask: COVID-19 May Cause Erectile Dysfunction:
    https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/lx/another-reason-to-wear-a-mask-covid-19-may-cause-erectile-dysfunction/2621114/

    Video in the link:
    Although COVID-19 treatments have improved and a vaccine is on the way, even a mild case of the virus can cause long-term complications — including the possibility of erectile dysfunction. Infectious disease expert Dr. Dena Grayson joined LX News with a warning not to let our guards down as we wait for a vaccine.





    Keeping Casinos Open Akin to Walking on the Edge of a Knife:
    https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/commentaries/keeping-las-vegas-strip-casinos-open-akin-to-walking-on-the-edge-of-knife/





    The US Has Passed the Hospital Breaking Point:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/the-worst-case-scenario-is-happening-hospitals-are-overwhelmed/617301/




    Covid Survivors with Long-Term Symptoms Need Urgent Attention:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/health/covid-long-term-symptoms.html

     
    • Informative Informative x 7
  14. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/8:

    Test positivity is up: 7-day avg is 41.7%, or 21.8% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,784 (+17), a record
    Cases are up: 2,630 new cases/day on avg (+111), a record
    7 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    In its daily report, the Nevada Hospital Association noted that hospitalizations in the north are slowing, though it is too early to draw any conclusions. In the south, they noted that the current trajectory is climbing.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada





    Administration Passes when Offered More Vaccines, Possibly Causing Delay:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/us/trump-covid-vaccine-pfizer.html





    The Key to Vaccine Success: Social Acceptance:
    https://lasvegassun.com/news/2020/dec/07/unlv-expert-covid-19-vaccines-have-gone-through-ri/





    Las Vegas Strip Draws COVID-safety OSHA Complaints:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/the-strip/las-vegas-strip-draws-covid-safety-osha-complaints-2208409/





    New COVID Vaccine Data Reports: Tips for Reading them and What to Watch Out For:
    https://www.wired.com/story/new-vaccine-data-is-coming-watch-out-for-these-3-claims/





    Here's Why Vaccinated People Still Need to Wear Masks:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/health/covid-vaccine-mask.html

     
    • Informative Informative x 5
  15. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/9:

    Test positivity is up: 7-day avg is 41.6%, or 22.3% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,811 (+27), a record
    Cases are up: 2,666 new cases/day on avg (+36), a record
    6 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    Here's a side-by-side comparison of the graphs in Clark and Washoe counties. You can see a little Thanksgiving dip in the data, followed by increases.

    counties.jpg

    Deaths also continue to climb. On average, there were 26 reported COVID-19 deaths statewide each day over the last seven days.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada




    Nevada Adds 3000 New Cases and 25 Deaths:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/local-nevada/nevada-adds-more-than-3k-new-covid-19-cases-and-25-deaths-2210873/

    These numbers are terrible. And they show very few signs of any kind of improvement. Now is a great time to stay home, if you can.





    And a couple of quotes from Today's COVID-19 Update Call:

    Julia Peek, the Deputy Administrator of Nevada Public Health, says:

    "When humans are together, be it in their own homes or on the street, there's a risk of the virus spreading,"

    She also adds that individuals should "assume that they're positive" and choose how to interact with others based on that assumption. "You need to make really important decisions for yourself and your family as to the level of risk that you're comfortable with."





    Spike in Cases at McCarran Has TSA Employees Worried:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/tourism/spike-in-covid-19-cases-at-mccarran-has-tsa-employees-worried-2210966/





    US Virus Deaths Reach 2.2K per day with Holidays Ahead:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nation-and-world/us-virus-deaths-reach-2-2k-a-day-with-holidays-ahead-2210389/





    The Pandemic's Final Surge Will be Brutal:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/covid-deaths-seven-day-average-highest-april/617318/





    One Enduring COVID-19 Mystery: Who Gets It and Who Doesn’t
    https://www.vogue.com/article/covid-transmission-mystery

    This first section is about some people testing positive at MSNBC, which may not be of interest to some of you. It highlights people doing "the right thing" and still somehow getting infected. But I broke it out of the rest of the article in case you want to skip it.





    US Could Face Months of Vaccine Shortages amid Global Competition:
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/08/coronavirus-vaccine-shortage-443839

     
    • Informative Informative x 5
  16. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/10:

    Test positivity is up: 7-day avg is 42.2%, or 22.1% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,824 (+13), a record
    Cases are up: 2,710 new cases/day on avg (+47), a record
    5 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada


    Please look at the two methods for the positivity ratio and try to come up with any reason to go anywhere near Vegas right now. These numbers are absolutely horrifying.

    percent1.jpg

    percent2.jpg




    I'm also monitoring the Coronavirus Mitigation Task Force Meeting:

    Kyra Morgan, state biostatistician, says there is no indication that Nevada is seeing a plateau in COVID-19 cases. She says there was an "artificial lull" over the Thanksgiving holiday, because of a slowdown in testing over that time period.

    She also says nationwide trends show most new COVID-19 cases are related to not wearing masks in indoor settings like restaurants, bars and gyms. She says Nevada has the second-highest COVID positivity rate in the country.

    No new restrictions or recommendations out of the Task Force today.



    Here is the NYT count for yesterday:

    nyt1210.JPG

    218k new cases yesterday and over 3000 people dead. The previous single-day record was on May 7 at 2,769 deaths.

    If we do nothing, we will continue to see a 9/11's worth of death from this virus every day, and eventually more. WEAR YOUR MASKS anytime you are around people outside your household unit.






    US Deaths Top 3000 in One Day, More than D-Day or 9/11:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nation-and-world/us-deaths-top-3k-in-one-day-more-than-d-day-or-9-11-2212319/




    At a meeting of Council on Foreign Relations, CDC Director, Robert Redfield is speaking:

    CDC director Robert Redfield acknowledges that for the next couple of months the pandemic will be “really rough.”

    He also states the next 60-90 days the United States will experience daily death tolls that exceed 9/11 and vaccine approval will have no effect on those numbers.


    Math was never one of my stronger skills, but 3000+ deaths a day over the next 60-90 days, seems to mean another 180,000 - 270,000 deaths in the next three months. That will put us over half a million dead in less than one year from this virus.

    It makes me both incredibly sad and extremely angry. It didn't have to be like this. Every other developed country in the world has managed this virus better than we have in the United States. Shame on us.




    Experts Say Unique COVID Vaccines Will Require Unique Distribution Strategies:
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/experts-from-unr-unlv-say-that-unique-covid-vaccines-will-require-unique-distribution-strategies





    There Is Not a "Safe" Christmas Party in this Country Right Now:
    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/529607-biden-covid-19-adviser-there-is-not-a-safe-christmas-party-in-this-country



    Tomorrow is Friday and we will get more information on the numbers this week in the Nevada Independent's Coronavirus Contextualized. Until then... Stay safe and wear your mask!
     
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  17. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/11:

    Test positivity remains high: 7-day avg is 42.7%, or 21.9% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are up: 1,854 (+30), a record
    Cases are up: 2,736 new cases/day on avg (+15), a record
    4 days until re-evaluation of "statewide pause"

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada




    Nevada's Coronavirus Contextualized, 33rd Edition:
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/coronavirus-contextualized-33rd-edition-nevada-now-1st-in-the-nation-for-most-covid-19-hospitalizations-per-capita

    I pulled a few sentences for those who don't read the whole thing:
    • Since the beginning of the pandemic in March, there have been 179,454 COVID-19 cases reported statewide. More than a third of those cases, 66,821, have been diagnosed in the last month, and more than 10 percent, or 19,058 cases, have been reported in the last week.
    • One in 17 Nevadans has tested positive for the virus since the beginning of the pandemic. Nevada ranks 18th in the nation for COVID-19 cases per capita, up from 21st last week.

    • Whichever calculation you use to look at test positivity, the trend is the same and shows that test positivity continues to increase across Nevada.
    • In the last month, 587 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported statewide, about a quarter of the 2,450 total COVID-19 deaths reported statewide since the beginning of the pandemic
    • There were 1,824 people hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Wednesday, the last day for which data is available, up from 1,645 last week and significantly up from the recent low of 417 on Sept. 12. At the peak over the summer, 1,165 people were hospitalized with COVID-19.
    • Nevada now has the highest number of people hospitalized per capita of any state, 58.8 people per 100,000 residents, now ahead of South Dakota, which has 56.6 people hospitalized per 100,000 residents and had the highest rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations per capita last week.
    This is all terrible news. This "pause" is not working to control the spread.




    Nevada Leads Nation in Hospitalizations Per Capita:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/nevada-now-leads-nation-in-covid-19-hospitalizations-per-capita-2213899/





    COVID Means Risk for New Year's Eve Crowds. Is Las Vegas Prepared?
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/entertainment/new-years-eve-in-vegas/covid-means-risk-for-new-years-eve-crowds-is-las-vegas-prepared-2213825/




    It Didn't Have to be Like This. What COVID is Like in Other Countries Where it was Better Managed:
    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/davidmack/countries-without-coronavirus-no-covid



    And so ends another week. I'm going to take a much needed break from the COVID news this weekend. If there's anything huge, I'll post it here, but otherwise, I'll see you Monday. Have a good, safe weekend.
     
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  18. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    I've got a new (new to me anyway) tool for you:

    https://www.covidactnow.org/

    Really interesting set of data, you can quickly look at a particular state, or all the states, or by county.
     
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  19. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

    Joined:
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    Governor Sisolak held a press conference today about COVID.

    Long story short, the "pause" is being extended to January 15, 2021. I encourage you to read the whole statement as it's complicated.


    Here is the short version. Well, short-er. :

    Sisolak started out by talking about the vaccine. First shipment arrives tomorrow and Nevada plans to start by vaccinating Health Care Workers.

    He talked about hospitalizations increasing and how they are just starting to see the effects of Thanksgiving in the numbers. "There is no doubt our hospitals are feeling an increased strain due to an increase in COVID patients, and our healthcare workers are too. They need your help."

    He is extending the existing "pause" until January 15th- The pause caps public gatherings at 50 people or 25% capacity, whichever is less, private gatherings to 10 from no more than two households, limits some businesses to 25% capacity.

    Sisolak: "I need to be clear — if officials and experts agree that our trends are going beyond our ability to respond, I will be forced to come in front of all of you again with tougher actions. I believe we can avoid these actions if we all commit to it."

    Sisolak then moves on to announce he is signing an extension of the eviction moratorium.

    He says he hears the criticisms from both sides: That he is putting in too many restrictions and not doing enough. - "The last nine months have been full of decisions with no winning options."

    Sisolak says a shutdown is "unrealistic" without federal support to the state. "According to one of our state economists, to return to full stay-at-home restrictions without the savings and assistance we had in the spring would put us in a position that would be as bad, or worse, than the Great Depression." He says that if he could write a check to every person who would be unemployed, he would shut down again, but the state doesn't have the funds and the Federal branch is unwilling to help.

    He moves on to talk about casinos. Says he understands why some locals are upset that areas of their public life are shut down when casinos are open. Says when he thinks about casinos, it's not about stocks or casino bottom lines, but the blackjack dealers, cooks, housekeepers, performers. "Here's why else gaming matters to this State and what the White House doesn’t seem to understand: if this has to shut down again, the State loses an estimated $52 million in gaming tax revenue a month. That doesn’t include room tax, live entertainment tax, and more." "When I talk to you about what the state is going to do and about revenue and about unemployment, our safety, it is not lost of me that the decisions we make today and how we handle this balancing act right now will have generational impacts."

    "If we cannot work together to bring these numbers under control over the next month, I will be forced to come before you again with tougher actions."

    He was asked directly (I think by Megan Messerly at NVIndy) whether people should come to visit Las Vegas over the holidays: He says that if everyone follows the protocols "we feel that everybody can be safe. If they don't want to follow those protocols and they refuse to be part of the solution, then they should probably stay home."




    Here is the transcript posted by Governor Sisolak's Social Media team:

    On Friday night, the FDA granted emergency use authorization of the Pfizer vaccine and this morning, the Western States Panel tasked with reviewing the vaccine signed off as well. We anticipate receiving the first shipment in the State early this week. The State team has worked closely with our partners. Plans are in place to distribute the 1st allocation of the Pfizer vaccine to our frontline health care workers for immediate vaccination, & staff and residents in our skilled nursing facilities as soon as possible. As new developments on the vaccine and the vaccination process unfold, we will work to keep Nevadans posted on any updates and news.

    We continue to see an increase in hospitalizations statewide with almost 1,700 Nevadans in the hospital battling COVID as of Friday. I want every Nevadan to have access to care & our healthcare workers have done everything in their power to make sure they are there for you. Almost 3 weeks ago NV entered a Pause which implemented incredibly strict mitigation measures in an effort to both protect lives & our fragile economy. Gatherings are limited. Capacity is limited to 25% at many businesses, including restaurants, bars, casinos floors, & gyms. I spoke recently about how we must create a bridge between our current situation & when the COVID vaccines become widely available. We know the tools to get us across the bridge. Avoid gatherings, limit exposure by staying home as much as you can, wash you hands, wear your mask.

    In a report from IHME, at the University of Washington, they estimated that as of November 30th, 74% of Nevadans always wore a mask when leaving their home. More importantly, the report noted that if we got that number to 95% -- we could potentially save 1,000 lives by April 1st.

    I know the mitigation restrictions in place under the current “Pause” are devastating to many Nevadans who just want to go back to “normal.” Who are worried about their jobs, their businesses, keeping their homes, and getting their kids back to school. But as I’ve said for 9 months now – we must do what we can to protect the health & safety of the public. That remains more important than ever as we experience these record numbers. That’s why today I am announcing that we will be extending the restrictions in place under the current “Pause” in Nevada for the next month – through January 15th.

    We will be evaluating our current situation everyday. But if officials & experts agree that our trends are going beyond our ability to respond, I will be forced to come in front of all of you again with tougher actions. I believe we can avoid that if we all commit to it.

    I’m announcing one more public health mitigation measure -- something that will help keep Nevadans in the safest place they can be -- in their homes. Tomorrow, I will sign a directive that will place a moratorium on most residential evictions in NV. We are now in the depths of our most significant and dangerous surge of this health crisis & with an impending deadline to be able to use federal assistance for tenants, I must reinstate a moratorium to ensure Nevadans can stay in their homes during this critical stage. As I have been clear from the start: this moratorium DOES NOT relieve renters from their obligations to pay rent to their landlords. The State has already created and provided lease addendums where landlords and tenants can work on repayment solutions together. State public health officials have expressed concern over families & individuals being evicted. My COVID-19 Medical Advisory team formally recommended reinstatement of an eviction moratorium to reduce increased community transmission caused by displacement and homelessness.

    With the extension of this pause, the evictions moratorium, the cooperation of Nevadans and a vaccine on the horizon, I am hopeful we can continue to stand together in this fight against the virus. We are fighting the virus, we cannot fight one another. There isn’t a day that goes by when I don’t think about the great balancing act that Nevada faces, and how the tightrope we must walk is more pronounced here than in any other state, due to our economic structure. Some say we’ve gone too far – some say we aren’t doing enough. I understand both sides. The last 9 months have been full of decisions with no winning options – leaving us to determine which choice would lessen the blow the most. I know that, and you all know that.

    But early last week I received a report from the WH COVID Task Force which included recommendations for mitigating the spread. It became clear to me that the federal government has yet to grasp what is so evident to all of us about the complexities of our current situation in NV. One of their recommendations said: “Despite the severity of this surge and the threat to the hospital systems, many state and local governments are not implementing the same mitigation policies that stemmed the tide...that must happen now”. This is a very stark departure from their messages and actions over the last 9 months that contradicted and undermined recommended mitigation measures touted by respected public health officials throughout the country. But nonetheless, I agree with them. The problem we have is that the mitigation policy that most successfully “stemmed the tide” in Nevada was our complete shutdown. And for the WH to send that recommendation without including a big check for Nevadans is out of touch and offensive.

    A shutdown is unrealistic without additional support. And I realize I owe it to all those Nevadans who may be monitoring our COVID trends right now and wondering why I don’t move in that direction. So let me explain. I have said repeatedly that we are trying desperately trying to balance public health & the impacts to our economy. When I say "economy," I mean our families – their ability to feed their kids, to keep the lights on, to keep a roof over their heads, to earn a paycheck and right now - our families and countless Nevadans are teetering on the brink.

    In our first months of the pandemic, Nevada lost 250,000 jobs – reaching an unemployment rate of 30.1% -- the highest level ever reported by any state in modern history. For reference, during the Great Recession, Nevada lost approximately 180,000 jobs over nearly three years. Unemployment benefits are established for a full year, and due to the pandemic nearly 142,000 Nevadans have completely exhausted that eligibility, with the vast majority unable to file again until mid-March 2021 or later.

    This is a stark difference from the spring when the additional assistance from the federal government helped many of Nevada’s most vulnerable workers displaced by COVID receive unemployment benefits that replaced roughly 100% of their lost income. That reality no longer exists. In the spring, at the time NV & other states were under stay at home orders, many individuals, families & businesses had savings accounts that helped hold them over. The State had a savings account – the rainy day fund. And we had also just received robust federal support. As of today, none of those things exist. Personal savings accounts have been depleted. The State emptied it’s rainy day fund to address our massive budget deficit. The funding we received through the federal CARES Act is set to expire at the end of this year. To return to full stay-at-home restrictions w/o the savings & assistance we had in the spring would put us in a position that would be as bad or worse than the Great Depression. That means a return to historic unemployment & demand for public assistance, & no funds to pay for it. If we could write a check to every Nevadan right now to provide them the ability to stay home and stop the spread, I would. But we can’t.

    I want to talk bluntly about gaming & hospitality. I know it’s hard for Nevadans to reconcile why some areas of our economy and public life are restricted while the State’s casinos are open. I get why it’s hard to reconcile that fact, and I want to talk honestly with you. The gaming industry are under the same restrictions as many of our small businesses, and in some cases, even tougher restrictions. Restaurants and bars in casinos face the same capacity limits as those in our neighborhoods. Gaming floors have been reduced to 25% as well. In fact, under the authority of the Gaming Control Board, the gaming industry is arguably the most regulated industry in the State – they hold privileged licenses. They must follow strict mitigation directives and face tough consequences if they don’t.

    And I think it’s important to make this 100% clear: when I think of the gaming industry, I am not losing sleep at night because I'm worried about their stock prices or whether gaming executives are going to make it through the pandemic and be able to keep a roof over their heads. I lose sleep at night because when we were under a stay at home order in the spring, we lost a quarter of a million jobs in three months in this State...and that’s largely due to casinos being closed for 78 days straight. These are the folks we are fighting to protect -- it’s the hundreds of thousands of Nevadans who take pride in showing up for work every single day & the ability that gives them provide for their families. If we take that away, the bottom falls out for our entire state.

    And here's why else gaming matters to this State: if we have to shut down again, the State loses an estimated $52 million in gaming tax revenue a month. That doesn’t include room tax, live entertainment tax, and more. When I say revenue, I mean the $ the state has to give direct assistance to Nevadans in the form of schools, public & mental health, food banks, & more. It helps fund the critical services we rely on – the safety net we need. That’s what’s been devastated due to this pandemic.

    I want to remind you all, when I first entered office and put together a budget for the 2019 legislative session, that was the first time in ten years that our state budget reflected a recovery from the Great Recession. It took 10 years for the State to claw back from that. And here we are now, at another inflection point. I certainly don’t want to lose another 10 years or more trying to claw back to where we were prior to the pandemic. So when I talk to you about what the State is going to do and about revenue, unemployment & safety, it's not lost on me that the decisions we make today and how we handle this balancing act right now will have generational impacts.

    This balancing act includes factors that too often get lost in the larger debate, but are just as important. This week, it was reported that Nevada has seen a 50% increase in opioid and fentanyl-involved drug overdose deaths from the first to the second quarter of 2020. That's startling, Nevada. And I don’t think it’s a coincidence it’s happening in the middle of this pandemic.

    Prioritizing our economy or our health is a false choice for our State. If you don’t have a job, if you can’t provide for your family, if you lose your home, if the State has no safety net to help, people will not be healthy. These aren’t binary choices. I never have and never will deny the severity of this virus - this virus has posed a threat unlike anything we have seen before, and for the last 9 months I’ve consistently explained the risk we are under. I’ve relied on the science. I’ve listened to public health officials. Like many other Nevadans, I wake up in the morning thinking about COVID-19 and it’s the last thing I think about at night. It is constantly on my mind. The loss of life is devastating. So many families have been forever changed because of the terrible impacts of this virus.

    More than 9 months ago, the federal government handed the States the responsibility of dealing with this global pandemic. They told the states to deal with it, so we did. We have navigated this pandemic through shared sacrifice and with the grit & perseverance of our communities. For 9 months the state has been on the frontline of this war against COVID – and for 9 months we’ve heard that reinforcements and air cover is on the way...just hang tight. But we don’t see any planes flying overhead. Every day I wake up to a new headline about how those in charge in DC aren’t able to compromise on getting desperately needed funding to states. I don’t understand why there is a general philosophical objection to funding state and local governments. And if Senator McConnell doesn’t think people need assistance, he has an open invitation to Nevada anytime to walk through the halls of our hospital COVID units. Visit a homeless shelter that’s full of families that had a home just months ago. When he opposes money for state and local governments, he opposes money for food, for unemployment, for healthcare. I hope and pray that Congress listens to us and our federal delegation who are fighting for more funding for our State, but if we’ve learned anything over the last 9 months, it’s that we have to figure out how to get through this on our own. If we don’t, that will lead to further restrictions that decimate our economy for generations, or we continue down this path of massive loss in a public health crisis.



    And here is the article posted by Nevada Independent:

    Sisolak Extends 'Pause' Another Month:
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-extends-statewide-pause-for-another-month-announces-new-eviction-moratorium-through-march

     
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  20. Sonya

    Sonya Queen of VMB

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    Sorry for no updates yesterday. My husband took off this week to use up some use it or lose it vacation time, but we had to cancel our trip to Oregon due to Covid restrictions. Instead, we took advantage of some relatively dry weather to head out for a quick sanity day outing.

    Nevada COVID-19 updates for 12/15:

    Test positivity is down: 7-day avg is 42.0% or 21.3% using test encounters
    Hospitalizations are down: 1,979 (-46)
    Cases are down: 2,673 new cases/day on avg (-45)
    31 days left in extended "statewide pause"

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/coronavirus-data-nevada




    The COVID Tracking Project Marked this Milestone for Nevada on Saturday:

    nevada.JPG






    Moderna Vaccine Is Highly Protective Against Covid-19, the F.D.A. Finds
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/15/health/covid-moderna-vaccine.html

    And they expect the FDA to approve this vaccine by Friday of this week. The more the merrier. :)





    When Will Las Vegas Tourism Rebound?
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/12/15/nevada-tourism-rebound-timeline-covid-pandemic-effect/3907217001/





    New Strain of Coronavirus Spreading In UK Has Key Mutations:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-britain-variant/new-coronavirus-strain-spreading-in-uk-has-key-mutations-scientists-say-idUSKBN28P158




    BBC: New COVID Strain: How Worried Should We Be?
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55312505

     
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