Discussion in 'Comps' started by david giusti, Mar 23, 2020.
Date Vegas is completely back open
By May 15th Y-120 N+100
Completely back open? I’d put 10k on no.
this wouldbe a bet I put my life savings on. 100% NO
I have rooms booked for april 17-23th but probably wont see it....so I booked Delano today for june 7th-12th...4 nights comped with the fifth night at $52..i can live with that...Airfare from pitt to vegas at $258 RT. I have a little more hope for this reservation...heres hoping!
I'll be back to Biloxi as soon as possible especially is rooms are free or deeply discounted. I figure the rooms will be cleaner than ever.
I can use a rosey outlook today. I will read it again before I go to bed. Maybe it can help me get some sleep.
I dont think there's any foolproof method of forecasting reopening.
As the shutdown began and all of the March-April conventions canceled, I had my hopes set on mid-late May reopening. I was attending a convention in mid June. Today, that convention was rescheduled to mid September. While organization's event planners aren't some authority.... I have to wonder about updated plans by an organization, and the MGM conferences team, that initially resisted the flurry of cancellations and postponements.
Too many new factors to predict stimulus offers. Have they ever shutdown entirely in the past? Even when demand cratered?
A soft, phased opening, blocks of rooms, a few restaurants at a time.... maybe even a few properties at a time, all designed to test the waters, hold down expenses, could mean much less liberal inducements.
I think I'd be classified a low roller by the casinos. The reason I get offers is excess room capacity. If they open in a manner that limits that capacity, I won't expect offers.
But maybe they understand the psychology of it all better than I acknowledge. No offers - I'm not going. Now that I'm spoiled by 18 months with nine free stays.. I'm skeptical that I could ever pay for a room there again.
This morning, same 30-minute SF Bay local newscast... one prognosticator said typical recoveries .. it takes economy 24-months to return to pre-crash levels. Seven minutes later, another expert said it took nine years to get past effects of 2008.
So, only thing I'm certain of.... is that I'm certain of nothing
This is probably the truest thing said in any of these speculation threads.
Working in healthcare, I can say that this is an interesting time. The impacts of the attacks in 2001 were on people being scared to travel, 2008-2009 was most people were lacking money. This one is going to be strange. If the stimulus and bailout package come to fruition the way planned, a lot of people will actually be made more than whole. Where we are, unemployment is looking like it will be covering at leas 100% of pay (when you include the federal addition of $600 per week) especially for those who are most heavily impacted. Add that into the $1200+ in checks many of these same people will be getting and there might actually be more money going back into the economy than before.
The big key is figuring out when to safely reopen, not to keep people from getting sick because nearly everyone is likely going to get some form of this, but when to do so in a manner that won't overwhelm hospitals and doctors. Basically there is a number that experts know of how many people per day, week, month etc can get sick before any aspect of their system is overrun (every hospital has this number). The social distancing is designed to keep the number low enough and steady enough to protect that system.
I would believe based upon the typical disease course and our leaderships eagerness to get things moving again, federal restrictions will probably be relaxed within 4 weeks with some states (those not heavily hit) following right along, other states, mine included, I suspect will keep some restrictions in play until at least may (about 7 weeks) and start lifting slowly through the end of may. Our districts are preparing for no more school this year.
As to comps nationally, a major portion of local players are retirees and the older generation. They may not be so quick to return anywhere, which could mean the casinos need to reach back out to the younger players to encourage more frequent trips. In LV I would think people will be itching for a "normal" summer and it will be steady, but cough, cold and flu season (which will now probably be known as cough, cold, flu and coronavirus season) might see a bigger than normal hit.
I've seen an extra day added to my comps by MGM over the last couple weeks, haven't seen full comps from Cosmo or CET, but CET prices are down to "might as well call it a comp" level for me for almost every resort but Cromwell and Caesars.
I would expect prices to remain low and comps to remain generous until the shut down is lifted and people start to book again. I'm stocking up on bookings for the year now thinking this is probably (hopefully) as bad as the situation will get and as low as prices will be.
Play small. Play big. $700/day coin-in... $10K/day coin-in. Months between visits. Visit monthly. Dow at record highs, unemployment at record lows. Economy crashing, people terrified.
My offers barely change. Same number nights since my very first offer. Same freeplay. Same resort credit. Only difference, some properties, probably load-dependent, some dates I can book a slightly better room.
Ive even wondered if my account is stuck... some random source code buried somewhere in the profile related to my initial offer in early 2018.
I keep trying to open more conversations about your plans for the future and things to get us through. You all keep using them to speculate with no basis, spread disinformation, and attack each other for not sharing your viewpoint.
I'm closing this thread, after the cleanup.
Covid-19 is real. People are dying. Numbers of sick and dead are nowhere near their peak. We cant even begin to list the things we don't yet know about the virus.
THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW WHEN VEGAS WILL OPEN AND WHAT OFFERS WILL BE LIKE!!
Also, stop taking medical advice from blogs, Twitter, Facebook, and talking heads on TV. Stay home. Wash your hands. Use your brains. Stick together and we will get through this.
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