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Slots Casino Math + Calculations

Discussion in 'Slots' started by luck.ofthe.draw, May 30, 2017.

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  1. luck.ofthe.draw

    luck.ofthe.draw VIP Whale

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    Hello board!

    I’ve seen many industry terms thrown around here…. “adt”; “hold”; “volatility”; “payback percentage”; “denom”; “paytables” and “coin-in”. I used to work in various casinos (in IT) and know the general basics of the terms and what they mean in terms of slots.

    I’ve looked at PAR sheets for some games (perk of the industry); read up on what slot manufacturers have said about how often certain machines should “in theory” bonus; but I still have questions! Math was also never my strong suit soo….

    1. My biggest question is how the hell do you determine your [estimated] coin-in? I mean; there’s the win/loss statements but I see posts of users commenting “did __k coin-in last night” and I have no idea where they get that number.

    2. The follow up question would be; how should I calculate how much play I can get from my bankroll for certain denoms (ie: $300 for the $1 denom of Kitty Glitter in High Limit [$30/spin] versus $9/spin on Rich Girl? $100 towards $3/spin Top Dollar) – versus $0.05/cent Kitty Glitter - $1.50/ base spin? Ie: how much should I wager per bet of my bankroll ($250/night 2 nights).

    3. I've tried using calculators such as this http://www.digdia.com/slots/slot_calculator.shtml - but I guess I'm just looking for more in-depth/customizable information?

    4. Third….Any other “gambling math” I should know?
      1. Should I be psycho-analyzing PAR sheets in correlation to math equations regarding what my estimated bankroll should be for a certain duration of time?
     
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  2. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Coin in is easy because casinos tell players how much coin in is required for slot club points.

    As for the rest, what exactly is your goal here? Comps? Time played? Highest possible win? You really shouldn't need to go deep into math to figure out any of it.
     
  3. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    IMHO, the only number that has any meaning is payback %age, or how much hold per $100.

    Even at that, I doubt that anyone (including me, a lifelong slot player) would recognize the difference between a 92% hold machine and a 97% hold machine.

    Coin in totals are plainly stated for every casino club (except Venetian/Palazzo)
     
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  4. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    Coin is easy. At CET for example, ever $5 bet (coin in) will result in one point. So, with 800 points one night means you had $4,000 coin in. You may have actually put in $100 or as much as $4000 of your own money.

    Question #2 : How much play should I get.

    There is only a theoretical calculation. Reallity blows the crap out of that. For example, take a machine that pays out one and only one payout of $100 and it pays out at 99%. And, you play $1 each spin. So, you should hit it about once every 100 spins.

    BUT - you could spin the wheel 300 times and get nothing, or you could spin the wheel twice and win $200

    So, how long should your money last? No way to calculate real world. Only numbers over the long haul.
     
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  5. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Right, a lot of these answers will vary among personal preference.

    Having access to par sheets though can help quantify the variance of the game much easier too and that's a key variable in bankroll calculations.

    But to truly get hard data on bankroll calculations, you would need to write a simulation of the machine based on the par sheet data.
     
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  6. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    Just like the 100X or nothing machine at Bellagio $25 a spin.
     
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  7. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Oh, there's a way to calculate it, it is just the answer is expressed in likelihood, not absolutes. As in, this bankroll will last you this long this percent of the time.

    But all that is a lot of work to come out with something you can ballpark with common sense.
     
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  8. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    I think that calculator is pretty good actually.

    The key is to get as close as you can to the correct setting for the payback % and volatility settings, which is somewhat guesswork.

    But I've done sessions on a $5 Double Diamond 800/1,600 (paytable) machine at Caesars or PH where I was gunning for 2,500 tier credits or $12,500 coin in. And I would expect most of the time to lose about $1,250 and probably a little more before I hit the coin in target. And these settings match up pretty well with how I play, and how long I expect it to take/how long $1,200 will last. I play a little slower, more like 10 spins a min (they don't have a setting for that), and I expect it to take about 4 hours and cost $1,200 - $1,400.

    Only use the denom of the machine to estimate the payback % (ie a $1 machine should have a higher payback % (I'd use 92%) than a nickel denom (use 87% or 88%). For bet per spin, just use well, your bet per spin, $30 or $1.50 or whatever it is.
    upload_2017-5-30_18-28-14.png

    Kitty Glitter I've never played but just looking at the skin on it from screenshots, I'd peg it as High volatility, it looks similar to Davinci and Cleo to me. Rich Girl I know nothing about.

    But specifically your question about having $300 to play Kitty Glitter at either $30 a spin or $1.50 a spin is easy. That type of machine will blank you 6, 7, 8 or more spins in a row no problem. So your $300 could easily be gone in less than 5 minutes. Find a nickel denom and play 30 lines or whatever the max lines is. I lost $1,700 in about 20 mins on a Davinci machine at Cosmo playing $20/spin. It happens:
    upload_2017-5-30_18-47-44.png

    I didn't really look at their results tables; their "1 in 4" assessments seem improbable, like I would not expect to get 29 hrs of play out of $2,000 on a high volatility machine once in every 4 sessions, and I wouldn't expect to bust out in 14 minutes in once in every 4 sessions.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
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  9. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    As said by a few others. You can figure out how long your money will last - in THEORY. But, with the thousands or millions of reel combination, you can easily die in short order, or last a long time.

    Just like blackjack with a very low house edge. MANY,MANY folks playing smart still can walk away with empty pockets. It happens.
     
  10. luck.ofthe.draw

    luck.ofthe.draw VIP Whale

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    My main goal is just to maximize the points I can rack up at The Cosmo towards the next tier. Time played (how long can I make them money last?) is another - I don't want to blow through $300 in high limit in 5 minutes. Though I know that is almost an impossible question; because even 2 of the same game (ie: Double Diamonds) in 2 cabinets could have different software on them that skews the payback percentage; volatility; etc.

    Thanks again for your input nostresshere; I like that you were able to simplify my post and generalize the answer. :)

    Chuck - just the man I was hopin' to chime in! Totally forgot that coin-in can be figured out depending on the casino...and Cosmo it should be easy. Thanks for the breakdown on the calculator I linked - that's quite helpful.

    Like everything else in the gaming world; I will take my chances!
     
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  11. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    To make your money have a CHANCE of lasting longer, play machines with lower jackpots. Those large jackpot machines have to take in more money to pay off those big jackpots.

    For example, if a machine only paid out $20 as the top jackpot, you would hit that way more often then a machine that has a top payout of $40,000. Remember, the casino has to take in way more than $40,000 to payout that $40k and still make a profit.

    (of course there are not any machines with a $20 top payout, but you get the point)

    And of course, there are very little perks to each tier - comps are tied to play, not tier.
     
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  12. luck.ofthe.draw

    luck.ofthe.draw VIP Whale

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    Ha! Yeah a $20 top jackpot would not be appealing. ;) I get what you're saying though; I've always heard "go for the smaller jackpots" but never understood the reasoning for it. I never gave it much thought before; but from a house edge standpoint and casino profit it makes sense.

    I love the Cosmo; but I'm not chasing comps either (if I get 'em; great!) - the perks that come with the Gold tier are enough for me. :)
     
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  13. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    It sounds like you want to avoid too much variance, so along that same line, stay away from things that have significant multiplied wild symbols (like 5 or 10 times pay) or video slots with many "tiled" symbols, especially tiled wilds. Having the important symbols grouped together will also help jack up the variance in multiline video slots.
     
  14. luck.ofthe.draw

    luck.ofthe.draw VIP Whale

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    Thanks for the insight Tringlomane! That sounds about right.... for further insight; here are some of the games I usually play: Ellen; Sex & The City; Kitty Glitter; Goldfish (& it's variations). I am trying to get more into the 3-reel slots like Double Diamond or Top Dollar.

    That makes sense!
     
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  15. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    Well, here's (what I think is) a noticeable difference between reel slots and video slots.

    Reel slots "normally" don't pay a percentage of the total bet. The minimum payout is 2x the bet.

    Video slots can pay less than the bet, which could increase play time fractionally.

    I guess it really depends on whether you consider "anything back" as a win, or "need" to get at least your bet back.
     
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  16. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    And that is the catch. Say you are playing $5 a spin and keep getting little wins of a buck or even less. You feel good. You keep playing. It slowly (or quickly - LOL) sucks the crap out of you. And, you think you are winning. Just how it sucks you in.

    The additional grab or lure is getting you to keep playing with hopes of getting a bonus round. And some of those pay well, but so many pay crap. Been there, have the mortgage to prove it!
     
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  17. luck.ofthe.draw

    luck.ofthe.draw VIP Whale

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    - aka false wins? :p I hate false wins; they don't do anything for me - "Oh boy! A whole $0.30 after spinning a $1.50/bet this past hour! Thanks cats!"
     
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  18. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yeah, these "wins" do suck. But also the type of win mechanism that does keep variance down. Many partial returns of bets, rare big wins. "Pity pays" for just missing the bonus. "Cats" is definitely low variance.

    And for what it's worth, "Cats" hates me too. Lol
     
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  19. vegaslisa

    vegaslisa Tourist

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    I find this a very interesting thread..what do you think are some other low-medium variance popular slots in Las Vegas now? I see where it refers to Buffalo and Pompeii are rated as Medium high to high variance. I do like to play the double diamond and red, white and blue .25 slots too.
     
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  20. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    In general slots without large progressives and crazy wild pays are going to be less volatile.

    Casinos also have some discretion in the volatility of slot results with respect to how they set the programming on their floor - it's not just the game design that matters.
     
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