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BeeeJay's March Trip Report #2--Special Final Four EDITION!!!!

Discussion in 'Vegas Trip Reports' started by BeeeJay, Mar 19, 2010.

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  1. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    so had to cancel my may 16-20 trip which was about 50/50, looks like too busy with work thru June for a full weekday trip like that. anywho I have decided to take $1,000 of the budget from that bad boy and put it into a Masters Golf bet.......I've got someone in mind but don't want to say and poison the recommendations.......whaddya guys think:

    Tiger Woods 3/1

    Phil Mickelson 7/1

    Padraig Harrington 16/1

    Rory McIlroy 25/1

    Retief Goosen 33/1

    Geoff Ogilvy 28/1

    Paul Casey 22/1

    Sergio Garcia 40/1

    Anthony Kim 40/1

    Henrik Stenson 33/1

    Angel Cabrera 50/1

    Ernie Els 20/1

    Jim Furyk 40/1

    Zach Johnson 40/1

    Hunter Mahan 33/1

    Camilo Villegas 28/1

    Lee Westwood 25/1

    Stewart Cink 66/1

    Luke Donald 66/1

    Ross Fisher 50/1

    Sean O'Hair 50/1

    Justin Rose 50/1

    Adam Scott 66/1

    Steve Stricker 16/1

    Nick Watney 50/1

    Lucas Glover 80/1

    Robert Karlsson 50/1

    Chad Campbell 66/1

    Tim Clark 66/1

    Andres Romero 80/1

    Graeme McDowell 80/1

    Kenny Perry 80/1

    Mike Weir 66/1

    Rory Sabbatini 80/1

    Ian Poulter 33/1

    Justin Leonard 66/1

    Steve Flesch 80/1

    Boo Weekley 100/1

    K.J. Choi 100/1

    Martin Kaymer 33/1

    Robert Allenby 50/1

    Stephen Ames 100/1

    Stuart Appleby 100/1

    JB Holmes 100/1

    Field (Any Other Golfer) 5/2
     
  2. throwbackid

    throwbackid Guest

    I would put a G on Tiger for sure then a G on the Field.
     
  3. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa Front Line Winner

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    I'd drop dime on Paddy Harrington.
     
  4. Thor

    Thor Beer Drinker

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    i wouldn't bet golf...too volatile...GOOD LUCK!!!:beer::beer::beer:
     
  5. ttom

    ttom Low-Roller

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    Anyone but Tiger - can you lay 3 to get 1.....that's what she said.
     
  6. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    Well lets face it, golf is a whole different animal than other sports betting. You could say its the "roulette" wheel of sports betting, but with 144 numbers and a 10-1 payoff for a hit.

    So the the odds of a particular golfer winning vs the payout are horrific, and its a bad bet.

    But if you go with the assumption that I am taking, that Tiger will miss the cut, then its like an entire quarter of that wheel is covered in cellophane and the odds don't look so one-sided on some of the mid-shots.

    Tiger, Phil, and Paddy of course are the favorites, but the putts aren't dropping for Phil like at the end of last year, and although Tiger is the most likely player to win, I think he is less likely to win than in past years. There exists the possibility of rust in his game or other pressures and a low finish.

    I've got someone specific in mind, I'm mulling it over. I just "know" they are going to win. I'm just not sure if I "know" it for $500 or $5,000. :evillaugh

    Would love more opinions as to who and why.
     
  7. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    :evillaugh:evillaugh:evillaugh

    f'n classsic! good one tom!

    woke up the wife and baby laughing about that one. she asked why and i show her your joke, she thought it meant wish I had laid 3 chicks to get 1 kid instead of just her to get 3 kids. literally "that's what she said".

    you think she would understand the gambling lingo by now, but shes still thinks RFB mean Ready For Bigger new coach purse. she thinks the running count is a sesame street workout video. she does know hookers and blow though!

    jesus i need to get some sleep. getting delierious now. like clark griswold in the desert.....taxi.....taxi......here boy......good dog.....:Þ
     
  8. bartweaver

    bartweaver Tourist

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    I like Paul Casey at 22/1 and Tim Clark at 66/1. Both of these players have played well this year, and both have played well at the Masters in past years.
     
  9. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    It's hard to criticize those picks, but the reasons I went against Paul Casey was he doesn't putt well enough. Tim Clark has more advantage at majors with premium on accuracy of tee rather than accuracy into green.

    I like US Open winners for the Masters given the layout now. My rationalle is lightning fast greens and premium on hitting smaller effective target areas on the greens.

    Take a look at the players with US Open wins, who have won in the past year, who have greater payout than Paul Casey. Tim Clark is a tempting longshot with those odds, but I think its really hard for him to win, solid top 10, but he would have to have the longer, more talented guys all choke or something. Last year woulda been good!
     
  10. JSR1968

    JSR1968 Low-Roller

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    Els 20/1
     
  11. bartweaver

    bartweaver Tourist

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    OK, after looking at the odds again, I am shocked that Goosen is 33/1. Goosen has won the U.S. open two times, so you know he can win Majors. He has finished in the top 3 at the masters four times in the past seven years, and he already has four top ten finishes on tour this year. Goosen at 33/1 looks very tempting.
     
  12. Rick1323

    Rick1323 Low-Roller

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    Els seems to be getting his act together. He won a couple of weeks ago, and has big game experience. He may be worth a bet at 20-1. But honestly the field is probably the best bet. These kids seem to come out of left field week after week.
     
  13. CFioren317

    CFioren317 Low-Roller

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    I have a hunch about Sergio this year. I just have a sneaky feeling that he is going to finally break the ice and win the Masters. And at 40/1, you can throw $250 on him and take home $10,000 with a win.
     
  14. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    Els is probably my second choice, and Goosen is very attractive based on my criteria.

    However, one additional measurable variable hurting the South Africans is the fact that they are enormous STIFFS and would transform an already ridiculously contrived Butler Cabin post-round interview into a broadcast with the likelihood of putting the millions watching on TV into a deep coma.

    I believe the omniscent owners of Augusta and The Masters are able to stop time and move the ball slightly to avoid this ungodly outcome. Perhaps even GOD himself would cause the grain to grow just slightly after Ernie shoots a back nine 31 with two eagles to allow a Mickelson putt to slip in and grasp a 1 inch vertical leap inducing victory from the jaws of defeat. Oh yeah that already happened.

    So the south africans are out of my consideration. And I guess I did over dramatize one thing in this diatribe. Mickels jump wasnt close to an inch, you would be lucky to have fit a five-card 21 between his spikes and the Georgia Bent Tip-Dwarf U237 putting surface at his Apex.
     
  15. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    I love Sergio but he is more likely to Tag Team the teniis Williams sisters with Greg Norman and a 6 pack of Michelob Ultra. Right when he gets up to his winning putt, that Monica Seles grunt he hears over and over in the bedroom will haunt him like the ghost of blown majors past. He saves his best for the Ride-Her cup.

    No one has mentioned the winner yet!

    clue, who has length, ball flight, putting touch, and an ability to chip in on slick greens under pressure and nail an 8 footer on the 72nd hole for par.
     
  16. DinarPoker

    DinarPoker Tourist

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    Ok here is my guess on who I would put money on:

    Jim Furyck -- Nice Length and good short game
    Zach Johnson -- Past Winner
    Steve Stricker -- Excellent Putter and Short game.
     
  17. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Carl Spackler?
     
  18. jfaspen

    jfaspen Low-Roller

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    I'd probably go $250 on Els, $250 on Furyk (both recent winners with past major championships, Els also has had some close calls at Augusta). $250 on Phil because he tends to show up for the majors and $250 on Cabrera to repeat.
     
  19. ttom

    ttom Low-Roller

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    I got 20 Flamingo chicken wings on Els.
     
  20. hammer88814

    hammer88814 Tourist

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    Looking forward to your updates BeeeJay. Can't believe you're already headed back.

    Give me 10 Grand Lux Sloppy Joes on the field.
     
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