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Slots Bankroll for the bankroll munching high limit room... Question?

Discussion in 'Slots' started by biggrazor, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. RTD120218

    RTD120218 MIA

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    Hi, Im a new guy here, I enjoy slots and table games, also poker. this year ive been focusing my play on slots for the couple casino trips I took, not sure why but ive barely played any poker or table games. Ive had very mixed results, but let me explain. First time, I play for 6 hours on $1 to $5 machines. I lost most of the time with no big wins, but a lot of 20-50 credit wins. I ended up down 2000. Next trip I win $2000 in first 10 minutes, left with it too after only 1-2 hours of play. Third trip I brought $3000 and lost it all in 2 hours. This was sad, but I never give up, next trip I hit for 100 credits on a $10 slot and left up $800. So for 4 trips, im down about $2000-$2400 I think. So anyhow I know it all luck, one day could only need $100 to win a million, but basically am I betting too high for my 1.5-3k bankroll per trip if im playing $5-10 slots? Starting at $3 per spin, then $5 per spin, $10, $25, $50, $100 per spin, how much of a bankroll would you need for a full 6-8 hour night of playing these bad boys? Also, anyone hit over 25k on a $5 slot? Ever? My best is $6800 on a $25 slot, what a day, I also hit 4k the same day on a $10.
     
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  2. Richard Alpert

    Richard Alpert LOST

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    I'm way out of my league on this question, but I just wanted to say Welcome to the Board, @biggrazor! :D
    The high rollers on the Board should be chiming in shortly!

    RICHARD
     
    Return of the Alperts!
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  3. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    It is very difficult - actually impossible - to figure out how long your bankroll will last. As a slot slut, I can tell you it is possible to go totally dry for an hour. When play $5-$20 a spin, that can be be 2 big ones in a hurry.

    Then another night, I put a freeplay in one $5 machine and hit $10k on the third spin. You just never know.
     
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  4. RTD120218

    RTD120218 MIA

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    Yes I guess I agree with that. Its hard to say is the answer...It sure was amazingly quick how fast I lost 3k the last time playing high limit machines. What happened was I started with $5 a spin, after I lost $500 with hitting nothing, I would start betting max, it just ate hundreds, from there went to $10 machine and sometimes bet $20, from there last $500 on a $25 machine, at that point not quitting with hitting 10 credits of course, so I end up losing it all. I hope my freeplay works out as well as yours lol. It stung a bit to lose that much so quick, but when I look at 4-5 trips and how much I played, I guess its the cost of entertainment. I think I will continue playing slots but more tables, and just set a portion of the bankroll for slots, say 100 spins on a $5 slot. To me that's fun with chance of the big win, without quick losses of the $25 slot of a grand in 5 minutes.
     
  5. willslotforcash

    willslotforcash Low-Roller

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    I've won $126,924.xx on a $5 spin back in 2015.

    It was a Bally Cash Wheel, $1 denomination, 5-lines for max bet.
     
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  6. RTD120218

    RTD120218 MIA

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    Damn! You give me
    A lot of hope
    Thank you my friend!
    Slots are so fun, I think I like
    The fact you don't have to
    Wait for other players
    Dealers pit etc. you just play at your own pace. But I hate when they just take and take. It's only
    Way they can give massive payout though.
     
  7. TableToddyy

    TableToddyy High-Roller

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    Save that big play for the last day. Not the first. And u won't feel so bad.
     
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  8. willslotforcash

    willslotforcash Low-Roller

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    It was a once in a lifetime hit.

    Don't count on it ever happening, for you. You'll spend more than triple that trying to hit something like that in HL.
     
  9. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    You have to adjust your denom and per spin amount to the volatility of the machine you're playing, and its paytable. And your objective - lots of play, or the potential of a really huge win.

    If you are playing a high-volatility video slot like Cleo II at a $1 denom, you should be playing 20 lines, so $20 a spin. That can crush your bankroll fast if you hit a cold streak.

    Or a common 3 reel machine where all the paytables are basically the same except for the top line jackpot - one machine could pay 800 credits and another 10,000. The one that pays 10,000 is going to give you much fewer hits of 2, 5, 10, 20, etc. It's going to eat up your bankroll much faster, but has the potential for a much greater single spin win. Just remember that that jackpot is the rarest possible outcome.

    To simplify the math, assume that your bankroll will get you 12.5x as many spins on the 800 jackpot machine as you'll get on the 10,000 jackpot machine. And that the odds of hitting the top line in either game are 1 in 32,000. That's not the exact real math, but what it boils down to is:

    Would you rather have 1,000 chances to win $10,000, or 12,500 chances to win $800?
     
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  10. dex844

    dex844 Tourist

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    Thanks, but I didn't quite follow that. I think it's unlikely that the two machines in your example would have anywhere near the same jackpot hit frequency, and I doubt the differential in volatility would be as much as 12.5x. It's hard to find data on slot machine pay frequencies, but from what I've seen, the top jackpot usually contributes only 1 or 2% to total return, so volatility depends on the overall structure throughout the pay schedule. In the example, the two machines could have very similar overall volatility despite the jackpot amount differential.

    If I wanted to play a long session of slots, I would start by estimating the house edge to determine my expected loss. In the high limit room of a major Vegas Strip casino, I would guess about 8% based on published data. If I want to play $30k coin-in, my expected loss is $2400. For bankroll purposes, I would assume a double loss ($4800) during an unlucky session. That's for a long session playing a variety of machines. I'm sure it would be possible to lose more than that, but I think it would be unusual.
     
  11. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    Your best bet is to calculate about how much per spin then estimate how many times you spin per minute then hour.
    Figure out how many hours you expect to play which gets you the max you should need.
    Possibly multiple by 20% to figure out how much it really should be.
     
  12. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    There aren't too many machines I sit and play for a long time except the MegaBucks machine.
    That is $3/spin and estimate 6 spins per minute.
    Using the above the total is about 360 spins per hour * $3 for $1080 then multiple by .2 gets me about $216.
    Granted I pulled the above equation out my a$$ but that is about right for average.
    Sometimes $100 will last an hour and other times $20 minutes.
    On rare occasions I leave with money too.
     
  13. Guy_

    Guy_ VIP Whale

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    Using this math with a $4800 budget at a total rewards casino you would generate 6000 tier credits.
    Based on my experience (over probably 30+ trips) I have found it to be pretty consistent to $1000 = 1000 tier credit.
    If I was looking to play 30k Coin in.. I would expect it to be much closer to $6000 needed.

    Maybe I am just consistently unlucky. :(
     
  14. dex844

    dex844 Tourist

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    I assumed $5 denomination machines with an 8% hold. My $30K Coin-in assumption was based on 6 hours, 500 spins per hour, $10 per spin.

    You're losing nearly 20% of your action, which is brutal. I guess it's possible some particular casinos are much tighter than the averages, and presumably the lower denominations are tighter in general. I think penny machines can be bankroll killers because many of them allow big wager amounts without necessarily enhancing the payback.
     
  15. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    I agree that 12.5x isn't the true difference. I dug into a document I had to see if I could find evidence for either either argument:
    Mine that the machine with the higher jackpot steals the higher amount from the frequency of smaller hits
    Yours that the machine with the higher jackpot just pays that jackpot much less frequently and doesn't affect smaller hits much

    So this document was written about the psychological effects of how machines display results. But it had a PAR sheet summary. It had only one example of a Double Diamond machine with an 800 / 1,600 / 2,500 top line, and then several examples, at different payback percentages, of a Phantom of the Opera machine with a 1,000 / 2,000 / 5,000 top line.

    I didn't spend enough time to find a screenshot of a 3 coin Phantom of the Opera machine, I only found a 2 coin. And it has 2,500 for 2 coins instead of 2,000 in the document. But it gives you an idea of the rest of the paytable. I took a screenshot of a Google Play Double Diamond "machine" because it was a clean image. That paytable is the same as a real machine. Don't be distracted by the fact that one is 3 coin and the other is 2 coin.

    upload_2017-4-2_14-54-5.png

    So there's a couple of differences - the DD pays 80 for 7-7-7 while the P pays 100, and the DD pays 25 for DoubleBar while the P pays 20. And then the top line.

    So I went into this PAR sheet analysis and found an example of the P stats for this P machine set up with the same payback % as the DD (within 0.1%). The VI column is a volatility index calculation; the lower, the less volatile.
    upload_2017-4-2_14-58-2.png

    So the way I read this table, I think the hit frequency only slightly supports my argument, the volatility index somewhat more strongly supports it.
    The fact that the P machine has 256 stops on each reel vs 72 on the DD, and the "Plays per jackpot" (average number of spins before a jackpot is won) clearly supports your argument that the jackpot pays less often.

    They give a detailed calc of their volatility index, but they describe it this way:

    "VI" stands for "volatility index," and is an indication of how much the game’s
    payback percentage will vary for a given number of games played. Games with a
    high volatility index have a larger variance in the payback percentage per
    gambling session than do games with a low volatility index


    Since the paytables are pretty similar and the payback % is basically the same, then if the volatility is much higher on the P, it should be because it's paying out less of the non-jackpot amounts in dollar terms (although volatility does go both ways). If the Hit Frequency is close on both machines, then I'd suppose it's because the hits on the P machine are skewed a little bit more towards the bottom of the paytable than the DD.

    I'd feel more confident about my argument if there was a big diff in the Hit Frequency.

    The doc is at http://jgi.camh.net/doi/pdf/10.4309/jgi.2009.23.5 if anyone's interested.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2017
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  16. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    Whenever I see the slot machine hold mentioned, I have to add in my two cents.

    You can easily play a machine wth 1% hold and still watch all your money go away.

    Heck, even a machine with ZERO hold can still take all your money.
     
  17. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    So true.
    My biggest session (or one day) loss In Vegas was playing the over 100% payout VP (10/6 DDB) at Boulder Station.
    Down $3500+ in a few hours.
     
  18. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    For how most slot players play, the answer would be: Yes, you are playing too high for your bankroll.

    But I do say "most" and thats because there really isn't a right or wrong way to play slots versus your bankroll, its all about how much risk you want to take and how much volatility you can tolerate.

    A simplified look at volatility would be: you go to the casino with $100. You could find some slots where a spin costs you 20-25 cents each or you could go up to a $100 machine and put it all on one spin...

    The first would be an example of really low volatility: you'll probably get a few hours of play out of that and still end up with a few bucks in your pocket at the end of the night, but by the odds if you do win and leave with a profit it will probably just be a few dollars... by contrast the latter option would be a case of extremely high volatility where you are likely going to go broke, but if you do hit something it could be a monster win where you are multiplying your bankroll in size.

    At its most basic, you could describe volatility as the number of times you go through your bankroll. The more times you go through, the more volatile your session will be and the higher your chance of losing all your money.

    In the OP's case, if you had $3000 and were betting $5 per spin on slots that will take 600 spins to go through your bankroll - about an hours worth of play. if you want to play for 6-8 hours you can see where you are going to be going through your bankroll over and over again, which increases the likelihood that you will go broke because the house edge will be grinding against your bankroll and eventually it will catch up to you.

    By comparison, if the OP had $3000 and was playing $1 per spin that would take 3000 spins to go through their bankroll once - about 5 hours worth of play. If they are playing for 6-8 hours its almost impossible for them to go broke because by that time they won't even have gone through their bankroll twice - to actually go broke in that time they would need to have some of the most horrible luck possible
     
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  19. dex844

    dex844 Tourist

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    Thanks very much for your research efforts. That's an interesting comparison.

    Wizard of Odds also has similar details for a few specific slot games. I have to say, the thing that jumps out at me is the difficulty of hitting the top jackpot. Your examples show 47k spins and 133k spins. The Wizard analyzed a Red White & Blue machine, calculating 262k spins between top jackpots, although that machine also has a substantial second-tier jackpot averaging 87k spins.

    Which means if you play 500 spins per hour, you need 100 hours or more to achieve a jackpot. If you play high limits, you may collect a few W2Gs without hitting the top jackpot, but usually those wins will only dent your losses.

    I can definitely believe slot machines vary widely in their volatility, but I suspect it would be difficult to accurately assess a particular game's volatility without a PAR sheet.
     
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  20. RTD120218

    RTD120218 MIA

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    When you see how bad the odds are for the top jackpot it makes me
    Want to just stick
    With tables... I've never hit the very top
    Jackpot but I've seen others hit them
    I did hit $1000 on a $1 bet wish that was a $10 or $25 slot. ... but knowing I won't hit top one is kind of why I play high limits. Although can lose super quick even little wins so to speak like bar bar double can be $1000 on a $25 slot. And I have the chance for that huge payday. But a $25 slot at 500 spins a hour is $12500 in per hour. You can definitely lose $3000 in less than hour even I know that!
     
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