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Table Games Baccarat Patterns - Real or Fake??

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by casinoboy, Sep 2, 2013.

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  1. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    I did post my system with nothing held back by posting my cards. Everything is there. If one is ever interested you just have to do the work and decipher things. I am not going to blindly hand out everything to anyone in some public online forum. There is no free lunch. There is an algorithm there. And within this algo there is certain high probability patterns on there. All the listed wins and losses in those shoes are there. As for a clear answer as I have suggested in this thread, if you so happen to run into yours truly and willing to ask questions then I am more than happy to explain every to you. If one is not willing to put in the effort, who the hell am I to do it for you? I am not anyone's keeper. I am just sharing an idea and if you approach this with an open mind then great if you stick to all the publications out there talking about the same thing yet just from a different person, then that is great too. As the saying goes you can lead the horse to the river.......

    I don't know if there is any huge leap or revolution in baccarat like you have stated nor do I care really. Honestly I prefer the status quo where everyone is playing so blindly. The chips lost to the casino is possibly chips added to my chip stack which is fine by me. I found something that works for me. Will it work for anyone else? I don't know. I tried to explain to a few and most of them either think I am full of fluff or somewhat get it. I wish you do get it since I know you have not wasted my time. For those that don't, oh well. My bank account is still the same.

    The reason as to why you are your own answer is because baccarat is not a game against the casino (blackjack) or poker (against other players), it is a game against yourself. Might sound like some new age fluff but if you remember the member here, thecarve. I am not trying to pick on him specifically but he represents the great example of your typical visitor to Vegas. He wins and gives it back but instead of trying to learn from his mistakes he justifies them and repeats them over and over again like some proud badge of honor. Adding insult to injury he also plays while drunk which is a big no no. From the look of things this is not the first time that has ever happened to him. I do wish he won some of that money back from his recent trip to Wynncore.
     
  2. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    See, that is the part I find indecipherable! If it is an algorithm, then it WILL work for everyone, not just you. By definition, an algorithm works for everyone.

    If there is no "free lunch" then what is it you want? Send me your algorithm in a private message. I would love to analyze it. I will promise not to share it with anyone other than a few mathematicians that are family members of mine.
     
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  3. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    DMCSR has been going on about all the mystical algorithms and patterns and free hands and hit and run and 7-deck patterns and 5-deck patterns for a long time. But the truth of it is is that there is nothing there. He's been lucky at times and finds all sorts of confirmation bias in the past patterns when he is.

    Expect nothing concrete, because there isn't anything real.

    It's trivial to demonstrate that past results and removal of cards have no predictive value in this game.

    Scoffing at Jacobsen's analysis of the player edge when using edge sorting further demonstrates that there is nothing there.
     
  4. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    No it won't. That's what he is saying right here...

    Don't you get it? You have to adopt a Zen approach to the game and become in tune to the symphony of the cards. Only then will you discover your own algorithm, within yourself.

    Makes perfect sense to me. :poke:
     
  5. Royal Flusher

    Royal Flusher Savvy Gambler

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    My inner algorythm symphony of cards came out as "She Bang" by that American Idol guy.
     
  6. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I see now, says grasshopper
     
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  7. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I clearly still need to play with you and show you my algorithm, RF. It involves placing a bet on either player or banker (a nearly 50/50 proposition) and seeing what happens. Wash, rinse, repeat
     
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  8. gArNaBby

    gArNaBby Tourist

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    I think that it was reddwarf who brought this "paradox" to VLS' attention last year:

    http://mathoverflow.net/questions/9037/how-is-it-that-you-can-guess-if-one-of-a-pair-of-random-numbers-is-larger-with#comment12533_9037

    However, the above substituted article further mathematically delves into it; and more importantly, provides for some other attempts at fairly different forms of it.

    Because of the trouble with identifying the precise nature of this advantage over randomness, I suspect that this is the only possibly viable way to beat randomness. There being, logically, only one possible form of the inexplicable.

    So, find a form of this which applies to your strategy for what you're doing; or, relate your strategy for what you're doing to this to thus verify your strategy.

    _____________________________

    Upon further reflection on this, I have come to believe that that article refers only to the indirect, less-potent solution to beating randomness in limited practice. Since posting the above reply over at BetSelection a couple of months ago, I believe that I have discovered the direct approach. This is based on working back from the above article to a more precise mathematical definition of randomness. (You may counter intuitively that randomness isn't mathematical, but that would be a poor stance to set about.) And, forward again to the direct approach.

    Quite devious, but not yet fully understood. In past years, I have come across one other, albeit seemingly less-dramatic but still quirky, approach to this, and hence now still try to logically merge the two approaches into the same theory.
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2013
  9. ruralhipster

    ruralhipster High-Roller

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    I once called a coin flip 12 times in a row. I thought it was impressive until I did the math and realized it was only a 1:4000 shot. I once saw at a craps table 15 field numbers rolled in a row. In games of chance weird shit happens all the time, in hindsight there would have been money to be made, but only from those with extreme systems. Who hasn't seen the same number come up twice in a row on roulette, that's what an over 1200:1 payout? Those results boards are intentionally designed so that we think we can see patterns in the chaos.
     
  10. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    garnaby, the non-random number selection paradox is interesting in theory but the question is whether it can be applied in practice. It ties into what some of us have said in this thread that baccarat is not a completely random game and the probability distribution of the remaining cards is always changing. But can that help?

    Using "Darsh's" post, in that paradox you're measuring the posterior probability of your new information as contributing some δ that would be infinitesimally small (if you are talking about all real integers). It does imply the game isn't completely random with new information, which is the same thing some of us have said about baccarat...and that's a necessary precondition to a game being beatable. But the traditional baccarat analysis that people have done already acknowledges a small effect of knowing the distribution of the remaining shoe, but its nothing meaningful. So to suggest its non-random by some factor δ does nothing when δ is infinitesimally small.

    Just like in the game in that paradox the probability δ is dependent on how far apart x and y are, even though its an infinite set of numbers. Same in baccarat, there is some probability δ you can apply to the remaining distribution based on the cards played. You would also still need a set of distributions where the order didn't matter, though you can tie that into your probability as well (making it even smaller). But unless you can come up with a composition dependent strategy that gives you a δ large enough to have any real impact, its just an interesting theoretical exercise.
     
  11. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    garn!

    How are ya? So when on earth you planning to open up your board again?
     
  12. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    exactly. and if you can find a Bacc shoe with a pattern like that, you can make a lot of money. and stuff like that comes up more often then you might think.
     
  13. gArNaBby

    gArNaBby Tourist

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    I suspect that the indirect case might measurably impact only only the variances, which can already be very-slightly fairly altered in baccarat. Not too interested in that.

    No one will find even a hypothetically direct version of this by accident (at the baccarat tables); no more than the professional mathematicians are likely to seriously undertake such an endeavor.

    But for the silly, of whom it's often said that we don't know any better, I have found first hand that there are still a few new gambling discoveries to be made, if only in the pursuit of something else. A different work ethic or utility, I suppose.

    If I had a good solution to this, I admit that I wouldn't tell anyone. But not for the superficially spurious reasons shelled out all over the internet.

    So, ridicule, etc, is still fair play. (Just make it crazy enough to contain some useful ideas, lol.) However, I didn't specifically write that I have such a solution, so a response to that item would be out of bounds.


    P.S. DMSCR, I will try to PM you when properly able.

    P.P.S I forgot to point out that I have never sold anything related to baccarat. On the contrary, over the past about five years on line, the username Garnabby has earned quite a reputation at the hands of the scammers. I call (and heckle) them as I see them, whomever.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2013
  14. wigwam_salesman

    wigwam_salesman VIP Whale

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    Anything that relies on a random seed such as a shuffle can never be a pattern. Sure, a 'pattern' might become apparent after a few hands and might continue for a few more hands, but it is just a coincidence that may be repeated at some point in the future by another coincidence.
     
  15. Mitkraft

    Mitkraft VIP Whale

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    ^^^^ That this can even be debated just blows my mind! :eek:
     
  16. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    I challenge you to find a single thing that can't be debated ion the internets. :poke:
     
  17. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    Is there such thing as a "random" seed?

    Can anything be truely "random"...
     
  18. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    Madonna is a virgin.
    There are no assholes in poker.
    Being a hot girl walking alone in India in the wee hours is very safe.
    Seafood around Fukushima is very safe.
    Giving Tokyo the 2020 Olympics was a great idea!
    There is no radiation leak in Fukushima and Japan has things under control.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2013
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