Another 'how would you play this' hand - JJ in late position, interesting flop

[NeonTurtle14]

This hand from a deepstack tournament in Vegas late last year. Tournament is $600, 20k starting chips, 40 minute levels, 2-day tournament format. We are currently in middle stages of the tournament, just past the dinner break on day 1. Blinds are 500/1000/100. Tournament has 310 entries, top 38 get paid. Currently about 50 left in the tournament. Hero has 110k chips, which is just a hair under the average shown on the screens (124k) as this hand takes place.

Villain 1 is UTG, middle aged white guy in a hoodie who plays fairly solid. Pretty sure he runs a fairly well-known vlog and seems to have a lot of people who recognize him and say hi to him as they walk by. Seems to play straightforward TAG poker. Chip stack around 150k.

Villain 2 is UTG+1, young white guy who is a fairly well-known pro, known for cashing in several tournaments and a fairly aggressive style of play, but he was just moved to my table and I haven't really seen him play many hands yet. Chip stack around 400k.

Hero is on the button and representing a fairly mixed range and has made some good calls and folds - should be seen as a fairly solid player at the table overall, however Villain 2 wouldn't have a good read yet on hero. Hero is mid-30s white guy in a tshirt and shorts and flip flops.

In this particular hand, v1 raises preflop to 2200, v2 three-bets to 4900, hero looks down at red JJ and calls, blinds both fold, v1 calls. Pot: 17100.

Flop: Qd Td 9d

V1 checks, V2 bets 12900, hero calls, V1 raises to 50k even. V2 folds.

Hero?

 

[Nevyn]

Honestly, even with the straight flush redraw, I'm not sure I agree with hero on how he has played until now.

Calling into a 3 bet pre-flop with Jacks I get. If you hit them they are likely to be a high set and could break one of the other two. But 50 players left and 38 in the money, one should be tightening up. Worse, UTG and UTG +1 acting are very strong plays, and you were actually in a little pre flop danger of UTG 4 betting after your call if he had a high pocket pair. I guess I probably call there with position, but don't like it.

UTG having called instead of 4 bet, I'd either put him on A-K or a middle suited connector/low pocket looking to flop a set. UTG +2 is a premium hand. He 3 bet with several players behind against a good player raising under the gun.

On the flop, when V2 leads out, as silly as it sounds, I'm not sure you should have continued. The straight flush redraw is huge, and even drawing to a non nut flush could be enough. Two non diamonds could win it for you with a straight. But again, 50 players, 38 paid, and you are buying one card here. Even if V1 folds, you are quite likely behind V2, and on the turn you will have to basically make a decision for all your chips. Normal pot odds don't fully apply as it is a tournament. A double up is not as good as a bust out is bad. To flat call there only makes sense if you think it fairly likely V2 has air and is trying to buy it with a scary flop, and with a player behind that is a fairly big commitment. But again, you can defend it as long as you don't fall in love with it, hoping to flat, and see if players will slow down on the turn (or you hit).

V1 check raising is a massive danger sign on that board. Any leading hand (straight, trip queens, overpair, AQ) without a diamond almost certainly leads out on the flop, and with a bit of an overbet. It would not want to allow a free draw, nor does it want to be re-raising a possible bet and call when it is trying to price draws out.

That leaves three possibilities for V1:
1) He has AK diamonds for the nut flush, and you are on a 1 outer. This is the true nightmare, because you are sitting there thinking you have so many redraws, and only the 8d saves you
2) He has AQ off with the ace of diamonds, and you are down to 2 outs.
3) He has the diamond ace with an offsuit king, thinking he is on the nut draw with an overcard to anyone's pair. I find this pretty unlikely, as he is getting a good price for a call in this scenario, and with the right sized stack and two players, can afford to draw.

I think we can dismiss him making any type of move. V2 could have been, but V1 check raised into a bet and call. So he at least has the nut flush draw. If he has a queen too, you have 2 outs. If he already has the nut flush, you have 1. Get out.

While I suggested I might have been a nit and not done one of your first 2 calls, they can be defended, but a call at the end of the situation would be bad (and an all-in raise even worse).

 

[NeonTurtle14]

Honestly, even with the straight flush redraw, I'm not sure I agree with hero on how he has played until now.

I understand. Pick up as-played though. I've already been beat up, berated, and told how bad my play is on this hand elsewhere

 

[TriggerMN]

I'm going with the assumption here that V1 did not open and then call a significant 3-bet pre-flop with K-J or J-8, so I'm ruling out a flopped straight. With the texture of the flop, his check-raise would not be done with one pair. That leaves either two pair, an over pair, a flopped flush, and a set. I also don't think he'll re-raise big with Ad-pair with two others still in the pot. I also feel if he had KK or AA he would flat call or fold considering the board, even if he has Ad or Kd in his hand. To me that narrows it down to a flopped flush or a set. Flopped flushes are super rare, much more rare than sets, but if it's a flush, you're likely drawing to the straight flush. This really feels like V1 has a set of 9's or 10's, and most likely 10's. If he's got Ad-Kd, it's just a flat out cooler.

This means you still have all the straight and flush draws alive, as well as the two jacks. I'm calling his raise and seeing the turn. If your hand does not improve, you can still get out of the hand with nearly 60 big blinds.

 

[Nevyn]

I'm going with the assumption here that V1 did not open and then call a significant 3-bet pre-flop with K-J or J-8, so I'm ruling out a flopped straight. With the texture of the flop, his check-raise would not be done with one pair. That leaves either two pair, an over pair, a flopped flush, and a set. I also don't think he'll re-raise big with Ad-pair with two others still in the pot. I also feel if he had KK or AA he would flat call or fold considering the board, even if he has Ad or Kd in his hand. To me that narrows it down to a flopped flush or a set. Flopped flushes are super rare, much more rare than sets, but if it's a flush, you're likely drawing to the straight flush. This really feels like V1 has a set of 9's or 10's, and most likely 10's. If he's got Ad-Kd, it's just a flat out cooler.

This means you still have all the straight and flush draws alive, as well as the two jacks. I'm calling his raise and seeing the turn. If your hand does not improve, you can still get out of the hand with nearly 60 big blinds.

Again, I disagree. I don't think a set check raises a single suit flop (especially since a set can't have a flush redraw). I've been wrong before, but to me a set wants to take it down there, and also wants information if they can't. Especially in a tournament. That raise is a third of that player's stack, in a time where you want to play fairly tight, against 2 players either of which could have or be drawing to the flush.

If V1 had a set, he just gave anyone with a diamond a bit more than 2-1 on a call, and if he gets 1 call behind, 3-1 for the second caller. And if someone has the diamonds or wants to semi bluff with the ace, he could be stuck deciding his tournament life after a 3-bet. Again, if I am V1 and have a set, I am leading out or less likely ... check-calling, and then making a read on the players behind if a diamond doesn't come.

 

[NeonTurtle14]

Picking back up...

Flop: Qd Td 9d

V1 checks, V2 bets 12900, hero calls, V1 raises to 50k even. V2 folds. Hero tank folds.

V1 shows 2s2c as he scoops the pot.
V2 grumbles about folding Aces.
Hero LOLs to himself.

 

[TriggerMN]

Raising a 13k bet to 50k seems to be a bit of an overbet simply designed to take it down right there and penalize draws. If V1 had a monster like Ad-Kd, I would think a raise to more like 32k would have a better chance of pulling in the draws.

Nevyn, I love that your thought process is different than mine. It gives me another avenue to pursue in future decisions at the table. Best part (at least for us) is that I don't think TRN folded here so we're going to find out what happened. In fact, I'm really enjoying these "what would you do" threads that TRN is posting. They are a little more of deep dive thinking than the normal rigamarole.

 

[TriggerMN]

Picking back up...

Flop: Qd Td 9d

V1 checks, V2 bets 12900, hero calls, V1 raises to 50k even. V2 folds. Hero tank folds.

V1 shows 2s2c as he scoops the pot.
V2 grumbles about folding Aces.
Hero LOLs to himself.

Well that's no fun! Chalk one up to a ballsy play.

 

[Nevyn]

Raising a 13k bet to 50k seems to be a bit of an overbet simply designed to take it down right there and penalize draws. If V1 had a monster like Ad-Kd, I would think a raise to more like 32k would have a better chance of pulling in the draws.

Nevyn, I love that your thought process is different than mine. It gives me another avenue to pursue in future decisions at the table. Best part (at least for us) is that I don't think TRN folded here so we're going to find out what happened. In fact, I'm really enjoying these "what would you do" threads that TRN is posting. They are a little more of deep dive thinking than the normal rigamarole.

It is a 37k raise taking the pot to 80k. To me, that is not an overbet. If you were confident enough to check raise a set as V1, personally I'd check raise all in. He is committing to a line where no one has the flush yet and trying to price out draws, and has the more likely player to be drawing covered.

More importantly, if you do read it as trips, you had better be sure. If you call thinking he has trips you have bet your tournament on that read, because you will be all in on the turn if you hit any of your draws, even though many can be counterfeited if you are wrong. And if the turn is not an 8, K, or diamond (17/47, 17/45 if you are 'sure' of the set), you are folding, because he will continue for the rest of your stack.

And if you wouldn't fold and would chase, then you should be 3 betting all in and rep-ping the flush.

And FWIW, even if you hit anything but SF on the (turn 8,k, or diamond), he would still have 10 outs on the river.

 

[Nevyn]

Picking back up...

Flop: Qd Td 9d

V1 checks, V2 bets 12900, hero calls, V1 raises to 50k even. V2 folds. Hero tank folds.

V1 shows 2s2c as he scoops the pot.
V2 grumbles about folding Aces.
Hero LOLs to himself.

Wow, that's quite a move. I can see it two ways as it is easy to put V2 on a scared overpair. But shocked he would do that with you tagging along. I guess he was counting on you being too short stacked to draw for it, as your flat call of the flop clearly reps a draw if not a made hand.

 

[meyers67]

- too much calling
- preflop - raise or fold. You can't call because you aren't closing the action. Fortunately, the initial bettor just called.
- one again you called a flop bet when someone is to act after you. Raise or fold. Other than hitting a set, this is about as good of a flop as you want. Get the chips in.

 

[Nevyn]

- too much calling
- preflop - raise or fold. You can't call because you aren't closing the action. Fortunately, the initial bettor just called.
- one again you called a flop bet when someone is to act after you. Raise or fold. Other than hitting a set, this is about as good of a flop as you want. Get the chips in.

Wow, what?

4 bet pre flop with JJ, average stack, within sight of the money in a tourney?

I mean, the post flop raise you can argue, especially given what V1 ended up with, but it is a raise of about half your stack on a semi bluff that could be drawing to only a couple outs.

 

[Nevyn]

On another note, one key piece of information you didn't give was the size of the blind's stacks, especially the big. The shorter they are, the wider the range you can put V1 on. V2 the read probably stays the same.

 

[fudgewapner]

OP listed V1 with around 150k and V2 with 400k. Hero still has an M of more than 70, so he's not in the Dan Harrington danger zones, still chips to play in the deepstack.

If the blinds were higher, than I imagine we'd all agree to definitely go in post-flop or even pre. From V1's perspective, maybe the betting of V2 just screamed high pair (like Nevyn said earlier), and that very scary coordinated board gave him confidence to run the bluff with the deuces, thinking there's no way AA or KK could go with this with a diamond? But there's still the Hero in the mix, so that would certainly be a ballsy play. Maybe V1 is pushing at this point in the tourney to move ahead, not just limp ITM and he figures Hero just wants to reach the money and assumes V2 doesn't want to have his decent stack cut in nearly half. Sometimes in the tourney players see a bluff spot and see it through no matter what.

 

[KKB]

My take is that V1 had a solid read on you & likely knows the other guys play. If he is the solid player you portray, he is probably not making a bet like that with his stack & a board like that unless he had a very solid read on you (and V2, but that is obviously more likely due to experience with him since he just joined the table.
If you play poker with friends ask them if they notice your tells.

There isn't much argument here for V1 trying to make a move. He has 120BB, very solid--which you claim he is. He is unlikely willing to risk nearly half his stack with that board without feeling fairly confident you don't like it.

 

[booker]

LOVE these How Would You Play It posts.

 

[remmerde]

I think KBB makes a good point.

V1 never makes this kind of play except against two players he knows are good players themselves, that can fold a strong hand. This is, what...third level thinking? So now we need to take ourselves to fourth level thinking against the sort of player who runs vlogs and seems to know everyone in the room.

This was a very interesting hand, indeed!