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Video Poker Actual Return on VP machines?

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by 3544quebec, Nov 16, 2019.

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  1. 3544quebec

    3544quebec High-Roller

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    Often when playing slots if there is some mechanical malfunction the attendant has to reboot the machine and during the process one of the screens that comes up lists coin in/coin out/jackpots paid etc allowing you to see what the real return on that particular machine has been. Has anyone ever seen this on a VP machine and how has the actual return compared to the theoretical return?
    I suspect (without any evidence to support me :nono:) that the real return would be a few % points below the theoretical as most people don't play perfect strategy.
    So if playing a 97% return game the real return is likely closer to 94% which isn't a lot higher than high denomination slots. It raises the question why do casinos discriminate so horrendously against VP in terms of multipliers/points earning etc?

    I know that various Gaming Commissions publish the actual returns on various denomination slots. Do they give a breakdown for VP machines?

    I'd be interested in some data points if anyone has seen one of those machine payback screens.
     
  2. gradytripp

    gradytripp High-Roller

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    Haven't seen such a screen.

    But since the royal flush contributes about 2% of the expected return, at least on JoB (https://www.casinocenter.com/video-poker-about-that-royal-flush/), even a perfect player would have an expected return of 97.5% on that game if they don't hit a royal.

    On a 97% return game, I suppose a perfect player without a royal would be at 95%ish, and as you say most players are far from perfect so the real return could be well below 94%.
     
  3. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    I haven't seen actual data in recent years but from casually watching others play, i would expect about 2% error rate in a lot of places. It will obviously vary by the clientele. Vegas strip bartops might be more like 4-5% though depending on who is playing.
     
  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Oh btw, the returns provided by the commission INCLUDE the video poker machines.
     
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  5. fenway68

    fenway68 VIP Whale

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    I think this is the key difference, if I am reading the OP's post correctly as to the difference in why Casinos "discriminate" against the VP player, is that the actual return on a Slot machine, is independent of the person playing; since VP players have input to the result and therefore could theoretically play perfectly for said machine... the VP player comps are set lower. @tringlomane will correct me if I am off on this...
     
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  6. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Well the return for the overall field of players is higher at VP than slots. You have to play pretty badly plus find a poor paytable to have a VP game return less than a penny slot.

    And yes, they reduce opportunities for VP players in promos/comp rates mainly to avoid allowing "positive scenarios" to happen, imo. If a casino offered garbage 96% VP everywhere, they'd be more likely to offer the same comps and promos as they did with slots.
     
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  7. melbedewy

    melbedewy MIA

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    I knew someone who worked as a slot employee at one of the bigger off-strip places. Sam's Town, Orleans, Gold Coast, can't remember. He said FPDW returned just a tick over 98%.
    This was near 20 years ago but I doubt players have gotten much better. So I would expect minus 2% at least is the real return.
    You really don't think positive machines would be out there if they were REALLY positive? That would be like a casino offering craps with no bar on 12's for Don't Pass.
     
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