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A Perspective on the Stock Market in Challenging Days

Discussion in 'Non-Vegas Chat' started by fasbman, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. donfairplay

    donfairplay High-Roller

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    Please let it stay, there's useful info, plus I didn't mean to speculate when I posted that other post.
     
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  2. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    I think you should go ahead and shut it down, it already served its original purpose in the title and the first post stands on its own.

    Market behavior and actions people are taking with respect to it can't be separated from the you-know-what right now.

    And nobody needs to come here to find out what the market itself is doing at any given moment.

    For however long the two remain inextricably linked, there's no point in having an open thread to talk about it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  3. donfairplay

    donfairplay High-Roller

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    Also, I mentioned this earlier in the thread about target date funds for people investing long-term. But I forgot to mention that Vanguard, Fidelity, and most other major ETF providers and brokerages themselves have Target Retirement (Target Income it is sometimes called) for people who want to maintain a consistent allocation of safe (or relatively safe) money and not have to monkey around with the allocation or manually rebalance.

    Vanguard calls theirs Target Retirement Income

    Fidelity has a Simplicity RMD Income Fund family that has an RMD built-in to the fund.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
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  4. fasbman

    fasbman Low-Roller

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    I would never presume to tell people what they should do with their money. The only thing that I will offer, is my belief that in the entire history of the world, panic has never once improved a situation. Do what you have to do, but take a few deep breaths first and think about it before you take an action. Also, remember the stock market is not an on/off switch. You don't have to be all in or all out. There are many shades of investing, and places to put your money. I personally make only small changes on any given day, but that's just me. Never forget that this country has got through worse times than these. I don't know how long it will take, but I do know that as a country we will get through this.
     
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  5. Ty

    Ty ?

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    Going back to 1988 my wife and I have invested in the stock market every month. We have never sold retirement funds/moved to cash. Every time the market dipped it provided us a chance to spring-board our success. We just keep putting money in. Look at a chart that goes back 100 years.
     
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  6. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    For most people, the best thing for people to do to navigate the current market is do what they normally do and keep investing via their paycheck and 401k. If people are in financial debt (student loans, credit or car loans, all non mortgage debt), they should forgo investing, or at least forgo investing beyond their company's match, and pay down their debt for a risk free investment return. Times like these also illustrate why a good emergency fund of 3-6 months of expense is prudent.

    If you are nearing retirement, a shift to a more prudent 50/50 to 60/40 mix of stocks vs. bonds/cash/CDs is in order, to ride out the inevitable ebbs and flows of the market, while still maintaining purchasing power. Stock market capital gains and dividends help offset the loss of purchase power via inflation, which impacts seniors at a higher rate than the public at large due to increased health expenses.

    Finally, Benjamin Graham has many quality investment quotes which readers could benefit, especially in times of high market volatility.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. PressThe5n9

    PressThe5n9 High-Roller

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    There was a nice silver lining for us this past week with the volatility. Our 401k company match is done in a single purchase, and it happened to be this week, so we got a discounted purchase of shares in those mutual funds. I plan to keep watching more potential stock investments this week but looks like it might be another bumpy ride. Some may pay off and others may not but I'm really going to concentrate on those I believe will rebound and provide a nice dividend to boot.
     
    Possible Vegas Trip in 2020! Just before Thanksgiving
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  8. fasbman

    fasbman Low-Roller

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    There is no way to sugar coat it, today was a tough day for the market. There may well be more tough days ahead. I know that people (including myself) are feeling financial pain, and many people may have to rethink their retirement and other life plans. Despite the real hardship being endured, I look back at history, and I see some far darker times in the past (WWII, the Great Depression, and in my opinion the worst time America has ever endured - The Civil War). Therefore, what I find running through my mind right now is that that very old (supposedly Persian) adage, "This too shall pass".
     
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  9. Hard6n8

    Hard6n8 Low-Roller

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    16,000 is in view from here.
     
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  10. cjcjcj

    cjcjcj High-Roller

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    Isn't a lot of this volatility because of the "algo" trading? If we were in "open outcry" days or where floor trading dwarfed electronic, I don't think we'd go +1500 up, -2000 down, etc. etc... The Dow is now swinging 500 points in minutes because of the algos, right?
     
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  11. fasbman

    fasbman Low-Roller

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    t don't think that there is any question that the swings have been exacerbated by the "algo" programs. It is the financial version of "The Terminator" where the machine have taken over the market.
     
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  12. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    I bought in with a 1/3 of my stock market "dry powder" at noon edt today, of course my stocks went down just under 4% since my mid-day purchase. I do believe 5-10 years from now, the dividends and capital gains from my purchase price should be positive.

    I also agree these large moves (up or down) are heavily influenced by automated trading. The market didn't like the Fed shooting their remaining wad over the weekend. I can see a substantial rebound if a pro-consumer / citizen stimulus is passed such as direct payouts to all citizens and targeted bailouts to impacted industries.
     
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  13. donfairplay

    donfairplay High-Roller

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    Automated trading/algos are an oft-cited scapegoat. But remember the algos were created before this, and few complained about them when the market was going up.

    People did complain about high-frequency trading machines, but the majority of those get "unplugged" during times of high volatility or even one-day volatile events like the flash crash.
     
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  14. pressitagain

    pressitagain VIP Whale

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    UNCERTAINTY is what is driving the markets down. It will be this way for months.

    NOBODY can forecast the damage that the virus and the oil war will create.
     
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  15. Gator5220

    Gator5220 Low-Roller

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    Perspective. In mid-1987 I started my first job. It was in investment banking. Then October 19, 1987 brought what was then the worst single % loss ever for the stock market. By late 1987 I was let go from my first job. Every thing is ruined. How will things ever get better? Now when days happen like we've had over the past few weeks I like to pull up along term chart of the Dow 30 and I can just barely see the 1987 blip. Perspective.

    Dow 30.JPG
     
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  16. cjcjcj

    cjcjcj High-Roller

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    I would also be interested in seeing a chart that shows the growth if dividends were reinvested?
     
  17. Multifarious5

    Multifarious5 VIP Whale

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    I swear I'm going to rename you Ambrose (Ambrose Bierce) or O'Henry. You have the BEST flipping-- dry, shrewd, cutting, writing style. Yes, I looked it up, the prahse exists, but I heard it first from you, and love it!

    PS it scares us too, but we're holding tight. I'm not very savvy on the stock market/401k, so I just stick with the simple mantra of sell high, buy low (unless something you think will never recover).

    BUT we have enough years before liquidating that we can risk weathering the dips. Close to retirement? I have no idea what we'd do...
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2020
  18. fasbman

    fasbman Low-Roller

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    I always keep a portion of my 401k in the Money market option. That way, especially since I am retired, I can withdraw funds if I need to, without cashing in on equities in a down market. Also, if you have a very strong stomach, you can even gradually transfer a small portion back to equities in times like these. Again, this is NOT investment advice and YMMV.
     
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  19. cjcjcj

    cjcjcj High-Roller

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    some silver linings... Walmart WMT hit 52 week high today
     
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  20. Hard6n8

    Hard6n8 Low-Roller

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    13 stocks hit all time highs!!!!!


    2,222 hit all time lows.........