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A Perspective on the Stock Market in Challenging Days

Discussion in 'Non-Vegas Chat' started by fasbman, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. cjcjcj

    cjcjcj High-Roller

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    I rarely try to "time" the market with my 401k or IRA. Yesterday, My 401k growth was at -1.25% for the year before contributions. Today I shifted 80% out of equities into more bonds and stable value. 40% up in the last 2 months from the lows is crazy (and congrats to those that timed near the top and bought back lower), I think the market takes a breather here and maybe stays range bound probably 24k-27k Dow It seems.
    The Fed/gov't is backstopping most companies so I doubt we revisit the lows but really can we go much higher? Maybe, I've been wrong before but I am staying safe for the next few months.
     
  2. donfairplay

    donfairplay High-Roller

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    I personally find market timing to be impossible. I kind of agree with the maxim that you have to get lucky twice, selling at the top and buying back in at the bottom (or close to it).

    I stick to what I can do: be happy with my allocation, keep expenses low, save enough to not be eating Alpo in retirement. The three pillars of investing.

    I'll probably end up giving it away to a nursing home in the end anyway.
     
  3. vegasdev

    vegasdev VIP Whale

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    Got me thinking..... I may as well live it up now and save the Alpo for when I am living in the nursing home.
     
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  4. donfairplay

    donfairplay High-Roller

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  5. oghuman

    oghuman VIP Whale

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    I'm at an all time high on my stock account, though my IRA is still a bit down from last year. However, I'm taking distributions from my IRA so it hard to
    analyze on short term because I occasionally vary the amount of my withdrawals. All I know is my IRA is higher than what I started with 9 years ago when I got laid off during the 2008/9 crash at least 5 years before I intended to retire. I started to withdraw after my severance and unemployment expired about a year later. I asked my financial advisor on this account to keep me at 60/40 fixed assets vs stocks since I started to withdraw.

    I usually use Motley Fool and Investor Business Daily for my research. Though, I did have a few big losers on behalf of Motley Fool several years ago when they kept praising a couple stocks as they were going down and I kept buy on the way down until they blew up .
    I don't do much trading on my stock account that I manage but I've done fairly well considering I don't use an account executive to manage it. Last year I didn't sell anything. the year about 5 stocks. This year 0 changes. My best stocks are 276 shares of UNH which I bought @ $18.90 and 300 NVDA @ $23 which I sold some and re-bought shares and my average price is $43.10. I have a couple others that over 100% gain. I'm almost even overall for the day so far.
     
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  6. cjcjcj

    cjcjcj High-Roller

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    One good thing out of the market today -- we locked into a Refi today, 15 year @ 2.625% no points no fees. Yahhoooo!!!
     
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  7. BayouBengal

    BayouBengal VIP Whale

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    Since I still have another 2 decades left for my 401k and Roth IRA I don’t mess with mine too actively. Just hoping that the auto purchases are helping me dollar cost average while the market is down.
     
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  8. oghuman

    oghuman VIP Whale

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    I should have said nothing. So much for all time highs, today I lost just short of 7% of what I had in my stock account. That will take sometime to come back. It's the most I ever lost in a single day as far as the amount of loss. Not sure if I ever lost the percentage, there were some big bad days in the past.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2020
  9. ronc

    ronc VIP Whale

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    It was a rough day!
     
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  10. ronc

    ronc VIP Whale

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    I made another $2,000 buying into Penn at $31, selling at $34.95, and then selling at $31.06. Not millions, but the bouncing stock has helped me get back to whole plus some from the bottom in that account.

    I will do it again...but I will keep a close eye on it so I don’t lose much of it back if I can help it!
     
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  11. fasbman

    fasbman Low-Roller

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    Well, it wasn't always pretty, but this ended up being the best quarter for the S&P 500 this century (actually since 1998). IMHO, this is why you need to stay the course, and if possible, buy more in periods like the massive decline we had in February and March. If you had sold in March, you would have missed this quarters comeback. It is also why you should never be close to 100% invested in equities. Keeping a cash reserve allows you to not have sell at lows and maybe even nibble at down beaten good companies. Again, everyone's situation is different, and this is just my opinion.
     
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  12. LVisBeautiful

    LVisBeautiful High-Roller

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    Check your stock for subsidiary holdings and share buybacks and exercises if executive compensation - some companies will run out of money

    If there’s a major shift in diluted earnings per share from Q1 to Q2 then there’s a chance that the higher ups are tapping out and this is the last death rattle

    :::full disclosure- not an investment advisor:::
     
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  13. nonahs

    nonahs Low-Roller

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    If people have to extend their work timeline in relationship to retirement date due to market volatility, then they did not have a financial advisor in their life. Advisors stage assets to prevent against market downturns affecting short term market volatility. You can prevent the same happening to you if you start working with someone now.
     
    RONA BE DAMNED!!!
    MOVE FOR THE POOL. RONA BE DAMNED!!!!
  14. nonahs

    nonahs Low-Roller

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    Two decades? Foot down on the gas pedal as far as risk tolerance and do not touch or look at it for 10 years, then start moderating risk.
     
    RONA BE DAMNED!!!
    MOVE FOR THE POOL. RONA BE DAMNED!!!!
    • Informative Informative x 1
  15. fasbman

    fasbman Low-Roller

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    While I agree that a financial advisor is beneficial to most people, you do have to be very careful in your selection. As I understand it, almost anyone can call themselves a financial advisor (although being certified is a different story). Therefore, the quality of advisors can vary greatly. A bad advisor is worse than none at all.

    I don't use an advisor myself for two reasons.

    1) Being a CPA, I'm probably as qualified as most advisors (I once had a guy who worked in the IT department of my company quit to become a financial advisor. He called me up a little bit later, wanting to be my financial advisor). I don't think so!

    2) Most importantly, no one cares about my money more than me!