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Video Poker 9/6 Double Double Bonus VP

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by bman77, Feb 22, 2017.

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  1. bman77

    bman77 Low-Roller

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    Hey fellow vp players. I had a question about 9/6 double double bonus vp at the MGM here in Maryland, that may also pertain to MGM properties in Vegas, but not sure if their slot club earning systems are the same.

    So on $1 Double Double Bonus VP here (9/6 version, 98.98%) at MGM, you earn 1 point for every $35 wagered. I believe a dollar in free play for every 100 points earned. This is really all we have in Maryland, would this still be a decent game (if played correctly) even with the lousy slot club earning system? Just not sure if that would raise the EV enough to make the game worth playing. Not the best at calculating that.
     
    November 2020
  2. DDB

    DDB Low-Roller

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    Boy, that sure is lousy FP. $3500 coin in to get one dollar in FP? You would need to play 700 hands to get $1, which wouldn't be enough to even get you to 98.99%.

    $1/$3500 =.00029 (percent)

    At 700 hands per hour your expected loss (over time) would be about $36 per hour. Of course, some hours you may loose $500 (certainly possible) or you could win $4000+. But over time, $36 per hour. All assuming that you play computer perfect strategy, which very few people do. Errors would make it worse. Don't forget taxes on signers too.

    But, except for some spots in Vegas (10/6) and maybe some progressive situations, 98.98% is as good as you can hope to find for DDB. Compared to 9/5 which would be about double the house edge. 8/5 for dollars, forget it - about triple.

    Without some extra FP or something, I wouldn't play it for dollars all day. Maybe for quarters or halves.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2017
  3. bman77

    bman77 Low-Roller

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    Hey DDB, really appreciate you doing the math on that. Wow!, it just raises it to 98.99%? LOL!. That is just terrible. This MGM has only been open for a month and I was so excited when I saw they actually had DDB at 98.98% as are other two casinos dont' even match that, but the slot club point decrease earnings with that game was a nasty and disappointing surprise.
    One other question if you don't mind, or if others want to chime in.
    This MGM currently has a deal going where on Thursdays you can get between $5 and $1000 in free play for every 100 points earned. This can be redeemed 5 times, up to 500 points earned each Thursday. The amount awarded is totally random. Would this type of promotion be enough to entice you to take a chance on playing once in awhile? or is it still a bad play? Thanks.
     
    November 2020
  4. DDB

    DDB Low-Roller

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    Yeah, if I was gonna play, Thursday would be the day. $3500 in action to get a $5 ( I assume?) award? Maybe running all that coin-in would generate some good mailers. Just be prepared to loose a bundle if things don't go well. Many times I have lost $800 on dollar DDB in an hour or an hour and a half. But, I play real fast.

    I'm not trying to say 9/6 is a bad gamble, but your slot club perks don't seem to add much value.

    When I play dollars, I like a game that pays a little higher return plus mail. Except for my guilty pleasure of TDB Dream Card, which pays less then 99%. With that game, huge wins are "common", but a hundo every minute or two when it's cold.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2017
  5. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    $1 from $3500 coin in is $1/$3500 =0.0002857 x 100% = 0.02857%.

    This earns points 3.5 times slower than MGM VP games in Vegas. And hard to say what the game will return in mailers. But I sorta doubt playing an inferior paytable there would be a better play after factoring in all comps at a casino like that, but i could be wrong.

    With the Thursday promo, that adds at least another $5/$3500 = 0.001428 x 100% = 0.1428%. Not great, still negative overall.
     
  6. bman77

    bman77 Low-Roller

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    Thanks guys, regarding mailers, I have been averaging $5, and that was for 57 points earned my first visit. I gambled 400 points this past Tuesday on DDB ( I know stupid) but let's say the mailers get up to $15 to $20, and then the promotion indicates between $5 and $1000 in free play. This is speculative as well, but in the past at another casino this type of promotion seemed to average at least $15-20 in free play, with $5 being a low outlier, could be wrong, but let's say this hopeful thinking is true. Would $15 in free play to start + another $15-20 in free play for 100 tier points earned during the promotion bring this game into positive territory?
     
    November 2020
  7. DDB

    DDB Low-Roller

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    • Informative Informative x 1
  8. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    You need 1.02% x $3500 / 98.98% = $36.07 in free play earned per 100 points to turn the game positive. Note you divide by 98.98% here because you have to run through the free play once. And this also assumes zero errors as well, which does take a decent amount of practice, especially if you play quickly.

    For example if your errors cost you 0.2% more in return, then you would need...

    1.22% x $3500 / 98.78% = $43.23 of free play per 100 points to turn the game positive.

    And of course, the promo play is a crap shoot. The average value may be ~$20 or more, but a vast majority of the time, you'll receive values lower than that. But, you could get lucky and win $1k too. ;)
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2017
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  9. bman77

    bman77 Low-Roller

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    Hey, just a quick follow up. I found out during a recent Thursday trip that they are now offering the $5-$1000 free play offer every 25 points earned up to 5x's per visit on a Thursday. I also realized they have 9/7 DB- 99.10. Looks like this game is positive when playing this promotion. (if the play is perfect) Last Thursday it came out to $97 in free play for the promotion. Plan on taking next months offers and coming here one or two Thursdays next month. Not as good as Vegas, but better than what Maryland has had lately.
     
    November 2020
  10. DDB

    DDB Low-Roller

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    That sounds like a pretty fair gamble to me.

    I don't know much about 9/7 DB, but most games with flushes paying 7 have a real tricky strategy. That extra credit from a flush 6 game changes many holds. I have been working on 9/7 TDB myself lately.
     
  11. vetsen

    vetsen Low-Roller

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    As Trig alluded to, I would be careful with your "random" assumption. Many times when a casino says "between $5 and $1000" it really means you get $5 about 50% of the time, some $10, some $20, and maybe a 1 in 2000 chance of getting the $1000.
     
  12. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yeah it varies for sure, but for most of these setups about double the minimum prize seems like a reasonable "average" value.
     
  13. bman77

    bman77 Low-Roller

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    yeah, the 9/7 strategy is definitely different from 9/6 double double. I actually play 10/7 DB out in Vegas and the strategy is just about the same, so it's not too bad of an adjustment.I ended up with $30 in free play with the promotion last night lol. Definitely less than the last time, but that's how it goes.
     
    November 2020
  14. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Iirc, the only strategy difference between 10/7 and 9/7 DB is to break Aces up at 9/7.
     
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