1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

2017 NFL wins over/unders

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by BigShot55, Jun 17, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. BigShot55

    BigShot55 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2014
    Messages:
    247
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    40
    Gotta make my preseason prop bets during my upcoming trip. So far I like:
    Ten over 8.5
    Hou under 8.5
    NO under 8.5
    Jac under 6

    What are your picks?
     
  2. BobLasVegas

    BobLasVegas Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2007
    Messages:
    244
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    26
    not sure what the totals are except for NE
    But...I would take NE Under....Carolina Over and my hometown of Cleveland, as always, Under.
     
  3. bdautch

    bdautch VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2013
    Messages:
    1,683
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    24
    I like the Bills over 6.5 (I think they can make it to 7), and San Diego under 7.5 (I don't think they play .500 football given their mediocre and unwanted circumstances).
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. 93 Octane

    93 Octane Chief bottle washer

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2016
    Messages:
    2,917
    Location:
    Mississippi
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    37
    Cowboys under
    Jets under
     
  5. bwatson23

    bwatson23 High-Roller

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2013
    Messages:
    653
    Location:
    Michigan
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    11
    Jets under is my biggest bet among the NFL totals. They are looking at 2-14.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. BigShot55

    BigShot55 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2014
    Messages:
    247
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    40
    Completely agree on this one. Also, perhaps I have a character flaw but I find that rooting for a team to suck (betting their under) for an entire season is more fun than betting overs. :D
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2017
  7. Tarstarkas

    Tarstarkas High-Roller

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2017
    Messages:
    579
    Location:
    moved to Maine
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    16
    NE under but SB bound
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. Celtics2424

    Celtics2424 Tourist

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2016
    Messages:
    10
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    10
    NE over... 14-2. Jets are going to be horrible.
     
  9. bwatson23

    bwatson23 High-Roller

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2013
    Messages:
    653
    Location:
    Michigan
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    11
    Agree completely, because you start the season being ahead on your bet (with zero wins to start).
     
  10. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Brady # 1

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2012
    Messages:
    3,874
    Location:
    Miramar , Florida
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    50
    NE over
    Miami over
    Jets under
     
  11. MiamiDave

    MiamiDave You Can't Handle the Truth

    Joined:
    May 13, 2017
    Messages:
    1,028
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    24
    A betting thread never truly begins until the hometown fan comes in to take the over. :love:
     
  12. Celtics2424

    Celtics2424 Tourist

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2016
    Messages:
    10
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    10
    Whens the last time NE went under? The year Brady got hurt?
     
  13. MiamiDave

    MiamiDave You Can't Handle the Truth

    Joined:
    May 13, 2017
    Messages:
    1,028
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    24
    I'm not arguing whether or not they're going to go under or over. Just pointing out that fans of teams generally make the worst bettors. Sure, if you were a New England fan betting your team then you'd have done pretty incredibly the last 16 years. Alas, as is the case at the roulette table, the numbers from the previous years don't carry-over to what their win total will be this year. Sure, the fact that they're super bowl champs gives them a very high likelihood for at least double-digit wins but they're no more likely to go over than under just because they've hit the over in 90% of their last 16 seasons. Trends on mainstream bets are a gambler's fallacy.

    If I were making a case for an under bet, I could point out the fact that Brady will severely physically regress at some point. But who knows whether it's this year or three years from now.

    I think NE total is one of the harder totals to bet this year, as is my own hometown team's.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. Celtics2424

    Celtics2424 Tourist

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2016
    Messages:
    10
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    10
    Yes i agree with your statements about betting the hometown teams, and the fact one of these years Brady will decline.

    Im not just saying that because they are my favorite team though. They went out and got better. Added Gilmore, Cooks, and a few others. Kept all their main pieces too.


    "Perhaps the biggest factor to encourage people to take the over: The Patriots have the easiest upcoming schedule in the NFL, per Football Outsiders. Ten of their 16 opponents are projected to win seven or fewer games with just one, the Pittsburgh Steelers, expected to win 10 or more (13). That leaves just three opponents — the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders — as the only other projected playoff contenders on the schedule.

    “They don’t have too many marquee games, and that’s another reason why their regular season total is so high,” Kornegay said.

    The Westgate has the Patriots favored in five key matchups this season: a Thursday night game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Super Bowl rematch against the Atlanta Falcons, a game in Denver against the Broncos, against the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City and a Monday night clash with the Dolphins in Miami.

    Another Las Vegas sportsbook, CG Technology, has New England favored in every game from Weeks 1-16. Week 17 is excluded because of high variance caused by potential playoff seeding, players sitting out the final week or playing partial games.

    Using that schedule, and Football Outsiders’ 2017 team projections based on its Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings, the Patriots have a 59 percent chance of going over 12.5 wins for the 2017 regular season."
     
    • Like Like x 1
  15. MiamiDave

    MiamiDave You Can't Handle the Truth

    Joined:
    May 13, 2017
    Messages:
    1,028
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    24
    If gambling were that easy we'd all be millionaires.

    With exception to <1% of sports bettors, the only millionaires are the sports books.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  16. 93 Octane

    93 Octane Chief bottle washer

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2016
    Messages:
    2,917
    Location:
    Mississippi
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    37
    12.5 is a great number for the books as it is juiced heavily and requires Brady to stay healthy and go 13-3 in the absurdly weak afc east...to me it's a wager that wins if he plays every game and loses if he misses 2-3 with a minor injury,
     
  17. BigShot55

    BigShot55 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2014
    Messages:
    247
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    40
    Even if Brady gets hurt, the over is still a winnable bet because of Garapollo.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2017
  18. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2009
    Messages:
    9,921
    Location:
    Boston
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    24
    I went and looked at NE's opponents records last year. Everybody knew going in they had a cupcake schedule last year.

    Last year's regular season opponents finished the year with a 43% winning pct. This year's regular season opponents had a 53% winning pct last year.

    So a tougher schedule, although obviously doesn't take off-season changes into consideration.

    Their roster is gonna be immense. 14-2 is still asking for a lot, though.
     
  19. Celtics2424

    Celtics2424 Tourist

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2016
    Messages:
    10
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    10
    14-2 last year with Brady out 4 games, Gronk hurt more than half the year, Bennett at 50% most of the year, Hightower out a bunch of games, etc.

    Nothing is a lock obviously, but they got better and their division got (arguably) worse.

    In the past 2 seasons combined, with Brady starting, they have lost a combined total of 4 games (29-4) including the playoffs.
     
  20. arrgy

    arrgy Tourist

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2012
    Messages:
    47
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    12
    Miami Over 7.5 @ +110 is probably the best I have seen in town.
    Second is a tie between Philly Over 8 and Dallas Under 10.5 (which I think has moved down to 10).
    Third, JAX Over 6. I can see them even split in their own division, at least one win against LA and SF, one against NYJ and Rams, they can probably beat the Browns. That is 6 right there.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.