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2017 March Madness musings

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by Bungadin, Mar 3, 2017.

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  1. Crambone

    Crambone Gnaeus Pompey Magnus

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    I'm not a serious gambler but appreciate others' opinions. Tell me what you think.

    Last football season I found OddShark.com which led me to MM seeding stats. Here's the regular season stats at Vegasinsider.

    2014-2016 Tournament snippets from Oddshark.
    #11seed is 8-4 ATS, 7-5 SU. The winner of #6 vs #11 (10-10) covered all but 1 time since 2010 (2014 Providence lost but covered). Might as well take the ML if you bet the dog.
    #14 8-4 ATS. 4-8 SU
    #12 7-4-1. 6-6 SU
    #13 7-5 ATS. #13 rarely wins
    #1 vs #16 .500 ATS since 2011. I guess you get a big lead and coast in the 2nd half like the Atlanta Falcons.
    #2 vs #15 This matchup is consistantly .500 ATS over the years. Rare upsets in 2016, 2013 and two teams in 2012.
    #7 vs #10 virtually .500 last 3 yrs. #7 is 8-4 SU
    #8 vs #9 Winner has covered 9 of last 12 games. Last year all #9's were favored.

    A couple bets I'm going to make:
    Parlay a few dogs+ for the first half only. Play some vid poker with the winnings.
    Key all four #11+ and #14+ mixing in seven #1ML, #2 ML and #4 ML, total of eight bets, 8 team parlays

    Some observations clouding my judgement. All the seeds are Tourney, not National, rank.

    Kentucky Only 15-13 ATS for the season but #4 in 2016 and covered. #2 in 2015 won by 23 but didn't cover. #8 in 2014 covered a few rounds as they made me some cash that year. Basketball culture.

    Kansas is only 10-15 ATS in the season but they covered in the last 2 Tourneys as #1 or #2 seed. Seeded #1 in 2011, 2013. Seeded #2 2012, 2014. Impressive pedigree.

    Gonzaga 20-6-1 ATS in the season. #11 seed last year and won by 16. Lost to BYU on Senior night Feb 25.

    Oregon 17-11 ATS Covered last 2 yrs as #1 and #8. Longest home win streak.

    Butler 16-10 ATS. #9 in 2016 won, #6 2015 and 2013 covered in both. Stunned #2Nova Feb 22 by 8

    Providence 18-10 ATS for season. Won as #9 last year. Upset by #12Dayton in 2015. #11 seed in 2014 lost by 2 to UNC. Might be a money line bet if they are underdog.

    MidlTennSt 19-8 ATS. Beat #2 MSU last year. They're better this year hovering around an #11 seed.

    Dayton 16-8 ATS this season. Won as #11 in 2014 and 2015. Upset by 19 points vs #10Syracuse last year.

    Villanova Only 15-14 ATS this year. #1 in 2015, #2 in 2016 and 2014 covering all 3 times.

    UNC 14-13 ATS. Didn't cover last year vs #16. Beat L'ville by 9 on Feb 22, Pitt by 17 Feb 25.
     
  2. Rush

    Rush MIA

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    You won't see MLs on the 1 seeds in round one.
     
  3. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa Front Line Winner

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    Good post - very informative

    I factor some numbers in along with the eye test and momentum of teams. Can't wait for next Sunday to see how it all shakes out. I'm watching a lot of games today to start scouting out teams.

    The Wednesday flight out the night before The Madness begins is always great. I'll have all of my first round leans written down so I can get the bets in once I'm checked in.
     
  4. catman

    catman Low-Roller

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    Could you tell me where in oddsshark you found your historical data. Thanks
     
  5. Crambone

    Crambone Gnaeus Pompey Magnus

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    I Googled "seed match up history" or something like that and got
    http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/march-madness-seeds-8-vs-9
    There are links to the other match ups on that page. I never did find it thru Oddshark.

    That crimps my style a bit. Have to go #2 and #4 ML then.

    I use the "eye test" also. KY seems to be a slow starter then a strong 2nd half team.

    I added a Wed night in Laughlin to get my bets in at Will Hill at the Edgewater. That casino is dead so I usually use them as a stop over to LV. Cuts the drive time down an hour then only 90 minutes to the DTG.
     
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  6. WichitaMuskie

    WichitaMuskie VIP Whale

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    That's not necessarily true. ORU was only something like +500 against Memphis a few years ago. But you're right that, in general,, maybe 1 of the 4 games between 1s and 16s will have a ML.
     
  7. Crambone

    Crambone Gnaeus Pompey Magnus

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  8. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa Front Line Winner

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    Winthrop and that little 5-7 dude they have looked good yesterday. So did Dunk City. I'll be hoping for good lines on both of them.

    Got three games tonight to watch!
     
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  9. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa Front Line Winner

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    I feel like a little kid on Christmas Eve!

    Dunk City vs Florida State is going to be fun to watch and I love that Dunk City is getting 14 points.

    A lot of juicy lines so far. I'll post my leans on all games later this evening.
     
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  10. Madchef

    Madchef Tourist

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    Not heading in till sweet 16 which is better than nothing. Can't wait so much fun!
     
  11. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa Front Line Winner

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    Ok here are my leans on all opening round games. These opening lines are from South Point's book via Brent Musberger's website (www.vsin.com). The show where he just had Derek Stevens on was great. Stevens bet $11k to win $10k on every first round game.

    EAST

    (1)
    Villanova vs (16) TBD
    (8) Wisconsin [-6] vs (9) Virginia Tech --> WISKY
    (5) Virginia [-8] vs (12) UNCW --> UNCW
    (4) Florida [-12] vs (13) ETSU --> ETSU
    (6) SMU vs (11) TBD
    (3) Baylor [-13] vs (14) New Mexico St --> NEW MEXICO ST
    (7) South Carolina [-2.5] vs (10) Marquette --> SOUTH CAROLINA
    (2) Duke [-19.5] vs (15) Troy --> TROY

    MIDWEST

    (1)
    Kansas vs (16) TBD
    (8) Miami [-1.5] vs (9) Michigan St --> MIAMI
    (5) Iowa St [-6.5] vs (12) Nevada --> NEVADA
    (4) Purdue [-9] vs (13) Vermont --> PURDUE
    (6) Creighton [-2] vs (11) Rhode Island --> RHODE ISLAND
    (3) Oregon [-15] vs (14) Iona --> OREGON
    (7) Michigan [PK] vs (10) Oklahoma St --> MICHIGAN
    (2) Louisville [-22] vs (15) Jacksonville St --> JACKSONVILLE

    WEST

    (1)
    Gonzaga [-22] vs (16) South Dakota St --> SODAK ST
    (8) Northwestern [PK] vs (9) Vanderbilt --> NORTHWESTERN
    (5) Notre Dame [-7.5] vs (12) Princeton --> PRINCETON
    (4) West Virginia [-14] vs (13) Bucknell --> BUCKNELL
    (6) Maryland [-1.5] vs (11) Xavier --> XAVIER
    (3) Florida St [-14] vs (14) Florida Gulf Coast --> DUNK CITY
    (7) St Mary's [-3.5] vs (10) VCU --> ST MARYS
    (2) Arizona [-17] vs (15) North Dakota --> ARIZONA

    SOUTH

    (1)
    North Carolina [-25] vs (16) Texas Southern --> TEXAS SOUTHERN
    (8) Arkansas [-1] vs (9) Seton Hall --> SETON HALL
    (5) Minnesota [-2] vs (12) Middle Tennessee --> MIDDLE TENNY
    (4) Butler [-11] vs (13) Winthrop --> WINTHROP
    (6) Cincinnati vs TBD
    (3) UCLA [-17] vs (14) Kent State --> UCLA
    (7) Dayton [+6.5] vs (10) Wichita State --> WICHITA ST
    (2) Kentucky [-19] vs (15) Northern Kentucky --> NORTHERN KENTUCKY

    There will be line movement and these are all initial leans. I won't bet every single game and I will finalize my picks on the flight out Wednesday night and post the tickets in my Trip Report.

    Let's discuss! Who do you like? Why?
     
  12. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Plenty of books offer them. They just don't get much action because you have to lay such a ridiculous amount on the favorite
     
  13. Crambone

    Crambone Gnaeus Pompey Magnus

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    Where do you see the +14? Vegasinsider tracks the line movements and it opened at 12.5 and is now 11.
    http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/[email protected]/date/3-16-17/time/0305#CA

    How much eye candy do they need to not favor surging Michigan by 10?

    NW first ever trip to the dance. I like Vandy.

    Iowa St won B12 as underdog. Nevada played anyone above their tier? They cover but only as a favorite. They need another touchdown.

    Marquette might win this game outright. Recent history shows both with bad losses but SC can only beat the likes of Tenn and Miss St and their ATS is pretty dismal. Marqette has wins over Creighton and Xavier twice plus .500 ATS. I bolded them twice for emphasis.

    Watching ND lately they can't score when they need to.

    Another late surging team. Dukies to continue blue reign on Troy.

    Purdue not good much lately. Vermont hasn't lost since Nov but in a lesser Conf. Vermont+

    I'm taking UNC hoping they're pissed from the loss to Duke and they return to rolling over opponents. Not a scientific reason I know.
     
  14. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa Front Line Winner

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    I was watching the live broadcast from South Point and they opened FSU at -14 and then it was down to -12 by the time the show ended. I knew that 14 wouldn't hang around, sadly. I just hope now that it's at -11 that people bet it up because I want to take Dunk City really bad!

    You highlighted two I wasn't solid on - Purdue/Vermont and SoCar/Marquette

    I like your info on Marquette and it's enough to make me rethink.

    Can't wait!
     
  15. Crambone

    Crambone Gnaeus Pompey Magnus

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    How fast does that plane fly?

    And spelled the name wrong once so I am .500 ATS (against the spelling)

    The pre MM fever got to me so I'm going yet another day early. Plus I get to bet the play-in and NIT games. These are the only two I've looked at.

    Tuesday
    Kan St vs Wake(+1) Both have good wins but WF beat Louisville Mar1 and it doesn't take much to sway me.

    Wed
    Providence(+1) vs USC I am Providence all the way. I peg them to beat SMU on Friday after covering a recent tough stretch in schedule.
     
  16. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa Front Line Winner

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    Haha! Not fast enough. It's about a three hour flight so I'll have everything wrapped up so I can drop my stuff at Palazzo and go down to a CET book to use the diamond line to get bets in. I'm not gonna stand in the massive Venetian line again this year.

    Good luck on the early games! Wish I could head out early too.
     
  17. Rush

    Rush MIA

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    Don't they have a sport/race app you can sign up For? You would never need to get in a line.
     
  18. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa Front Line Winner

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    Yeah they do but I'm old school with sports and like to go to the window and have the actual tickets.
     
  19. firemanpete3

    firemanpete3 Low-Roller

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    You have alot of the same leans I had as well, Rocky. Especially like Purdue, Michigan, Winthrop, and NW. We differ on Marquette and ND. Good luck!
     
  20. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    Wait until you see the lines, you might like the digital tickets a little more then.
     
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