I am starting to get January offers from Total Rewards so this may become moot if something better comes along. Last month I got a nice offer for three nights at PH in a Hollywood Hip Room (even though calendar would give me resort) plus $300 in free play. I booked this for a friday through monday along with an executive suite at MGM for monday through thursday (no free play, but the suite upgrade). I am low diamond with just under 20k tier points. Recently I got an offer from Total Rewards for $125 each of free play and resort credit, but with better rooms. (5) nights in any non-suite room at Flamingo, Ballys, and Harrahs (inc. petite suite), 4 nights at Paris (up to Red Room Luxury) and PH (up to Resort room) or Caesars 3 nights up to Octavius Luxury. What would you do? Keep the PH room with $300 free play and hope for an upgrade? Stay at Paris in a Red Room(most likely will get an upgrade to red premier) with Dining/free play? Stay at Caesars with Dining/free play? If I knew I would get the Octavious Room I would stay at Caesars, but I have got burnt and downgraded to Palace before.
I would do the HO with the free play and then do the sandwich. I will be at Bally's in a few hours and have stayed at Paris and Planet Hollywood, and much prefer PH. My room at Bally's is comped but i might try the sandwich for the new Jubilee room (maybe $30) might do it? Probably not. I stayed at Caesars in August but not knowing if you'll be upgraded above Palace and only 3 nights, well, i wouldn't. My choice is Planet Hollywood, $300, 4 nights, and probably a nice view of the Fountains.
One way to judge your chances of getting the Octavius room would be to look at the rates for those 3 nights without logging in. Then you can judge whether they're higher or lower than other weekends in Jan. If they're lower, your chances are better. That said, a downgrade from Octavius to Palace isn't that big a deal in my mind. In fact, I booked the same promo ($125 freeplay + $125 resort credit) a couple of days ago, and the rep was going to put me in Augustus, but I asked her to put me in the Forum tower because it's less of a hike and the Forum rooms have a connectivity panel to the TV. And I was able to get 5 nights, 3 free under the offer and 2 more comped due to play. The way I look at freeplay is, once I run it through, how much am I likely to have left and if I take that remainder and run it through until there's nothing left, much is will I earn in RC's? So you're looking at an extra $175 in freeplay at the lower properties. Play it through once, and you'll probably have about $150. If you cashed out then, you'd have $150, vs the $125 resort credit at Caesars. But if you play it out, how much in RCs will you earn? Not much. I'll normally favor resort credit over freeplay, IF I know I'll use all of the resort credit. I was surprised to see that Ceasars offer because I don't usually use offers. It was actually listed as two different offers online, but both with the same code. I didn't really believe it when the rep said you get both. I think that, on top of 5 free nights which could have been in Augustus, is a great deal for a player at my level.
I would be inclined to do one of the play/resort credit offers unless I thought I would have good luck converting the free play into cash. I wouldn't be afraid to take CP. Even if they couldn't honor Octavius, I can't seem them bumping down to Palace with the way they market Augustus/Octavius now.