NFL: Is Buffalo +9.5 a gift?

I know Tom Brady is God but New England's defense is mediocre at best, the running game is awful, and the loss of Welker and Gonzalez will hurt. Rob Gronkowski is doubtful.

Buffalo can run the ball. Last season, Buffalo had the 4th best Yards Per Carry in the NFL.

Buffalo at home +9.5 looks good to me.

 

I have NE defense on my Fantasy league. they will dominate!

 

NE has had a lot of time to get ready for them. I'd give 14 and take NE.

 

I wouldn't play this one because in my mind there are too many unknowns right now for both teams.

How will EJ Manuel play? I believe he's going to be good and I like the duo of Spiller and Jackson at RB. I like Stevie Johnson as a big play guy.

How will Brady do with those unknowns at receiver? More than likely he'll make Boyce, Thompson and Sudfeld (at TE) look all world. But I don't trust the Pats defense because of that secondary.

A couple years ago the Bills smoked NE in the first week...and memories of that game along with the questions I mentioned have me staying away.

I hope Buffalo wins though - a ton of people in my suicide pool have picked NE

 

Suicide pools are fun. I won won a few years ago.

No way I take NE this week. A BUF win would not shock me in the least.

 

As a lifelong Bills fan who attended every home game from age 5 to age 18, I'd like to say Buffalo has what it takes to win for you with 9.5. But unfortunately, there are factors that lead me to the conclusion of a double digit loss. A QB playing his very first game. A distracted running back in the immediate aftermath of his grandpa's murder-suicide. The only thing resembling a shutdown corner is out for several more weeks. I wish I could tell you that we can do this, but the truth is...we CANNOT do this. I'd take NE and give the 9.5.

 

I vote -9.5 for the Pats is a gift and thats having CJ Spiller on my fantasy team. I don't think EJ Manuel is at a point that he can attack the vulnerable Pats defense. With that said, 31-17 Pats.

 

Guess that's why I don't do the sports book.

 

Uh...sorry about that. I hope you didn't listen to me!

 

Read this AM sports book big profits on football came from Tampa Bay & NE games.

 

I believe you have just become the forums new handicapper!!

 

gj JDub

 

from a Dave Tuley article:

Standing in the betting lines at the LVH making last-minute wagers (and this was true in the dozen other Vegas books I visited over the course of the weekend), all the surrounding chatter was about the teams people were using in their parlays and the most common phrases heard were "the Patriots are going to blow out the Bills and their rookie QB," "the Jets are the worst team in the league and are going to get crushed by the Bucs," "the Raiders can't keep up with Andrew Luck and the Colts," "the Seahawks are for real and are going to run over the Panthers," and so forth.

 

Patriots are going to blow out the Bills=Yep most thought that but I wouldn't get over excited about it as it's a long season.

Jets are the worst team in the league and are going to get crushed by the Bucs=they are the worst team but the bucs aren't all that great. Never thought it as a blowout.

the Raiders can't keep up with Andrew Luck and the Colts=most thought that.

Seahawks are for real and are going to run over the Panthers=most thought that and the hawks are for real.

 

which is why the smart money bets the opposite of the public's perceptions. Some of Week # 1 lines were just too high and out of whack compared to the NFL's current choice of parity around the league.

 

Also, I realize that I am stating this in hindsight, but any home dog getting + 9.5 is a must bet in the NFL. (Unless it is like Alabama playing Sam's Jr. college, or similar)

 

1st games of the season.
I belive 10 games were decided by 7 points or less which isn't the norm. This next week will show the cream rise and the crap sink.

 

Especially a division rival.