NFL Week 1 Picks ATS

Patriots -10.5 @ Bills, 1pm

Like the Patriots here, EJ Manuel got very little preseason experience in and it will be tough to score as many as the Pats will. The Patriots are 24-15 against the spread vs. Bills since '92 and 13-6 ATS in games played at Buffalo.

Pick: Pats -10.5

Titans @ Steelers -6.5, 1pm

The Steelers defend Heinz Field very well and I don't expect that to change anytime soon. If you can get the line under a full touchdown, I say take it!

Pick: Steelers -6.5

Bengals @ Bears 42.5u, 1pm

Two of the better defenses in the NFL going toe to toe means low scoring. If you can lock in under 6 TDs I think you've got a legit shot. This one goes something like 21-17.

Pick: Under 42.5

Dolphins +2 @ Browns, 1pm

The Dolphins were picked by some experts as AFC East champs over the Patriots, now they're getting 2 points from a Browns team that finished 5-11 last year before revamping the defense but leaving the same offense on the field.

Pick: Dolphins +2

Potential Big Play of the Day: Dolphins +115 Money Line

 

Like your first two picks, but disagree on the under in the Bears game. Bears showed an ability to score a lot of points when healthy and in good weather last season (both of which should apply today). And the Bengals defense is not that great. First six weeks last season, they gave up more than 20 points every game, unless they were playing a rookie quarterback. I see the game being close, but more in the 27 to 24 range.

 

Congrats on the Michigan win Klawrey. I had them in my successful 4 teamer and won $60 because I am lame to only have it for $5.

I should bet my Dolphins+points because I don't have a heart.

 

Well they ended up going over today but only by 2.5, more often than not while betting the Bears this year, I would stick to the under and be willing to bet you will come out ahead. The Bears may have the potential to put up 30+ but more likely to put up 20-24 and hold a team to 13-20.

As for the Bengals, they were actually ranked 6th in Total Defense last year, just one spot behind the Bears so by saying they're "not that great" you're just lying to yourself, that's the top 20% of the league. But in the end you were right about over by 2.5 points.

 

Your Dolphins were the only thing keeping me afloat in the 1pm games, I lost 1 unit on the Patriots and 1 unit on the Steelers but won 3 units at +115 on the Dolphins money line.

Riding the over in this GB-SF game (48.5) and it doesn't look too good early. And going with the Giants +3.5 tonight against the Cowboys.

 

Actually, I don't think I was lying to myself. By measuring points allowed, I think Cincy was either top 8 or 9 last year, not sixth. But more importantly, look at which teams they held to low scores last year. I would argue that they only held three teams with experienced or quality QBs to less than 20 points last year (and even then, I am giving them credit for holding the Chargers to under 20 and some people would certainly argue that Rivers is no longer a quality QB). I don't consider that a great defense. For the most part, their defense played well against poor teams last year and I didn't see a lot of improvement this offseason. I would rate them as an above average defense, but hardly great. Combine those facts with the facts that the bears scored fairly well last year when healthy (which they were this week), the Bears coaching staff is offensive minded and wants to move the ball up and down, and the bengals have an improving offense, that all added up to a pretty easy over bet (one of only two over bets I made for week one). So call that lying to myself if you like, but I will happily cash my ticket on my next trip to vegas

 

Again like I said you were right with them going over by 2.5. But thank you for validating my point that they are a good defense with them being 9th in Points Allowed which is still top 28% of the league on top of top 20% in Total Defense

Enjoy your win!