Table Games BJ bet size/buy in/bank roll formula?

based on most of your replies, im buying in about right in the avg of what everyone else does. I usually buy in at 20-25xs my small(starting bet) bet. but that total buy in represents about 20-25% of my total trip budget(gambling, food and entertainment). I always press at a 1, 1, 1.5, 2, 3 pattern into my winning streak, and if I make it all the way thru 5 wins, I reset at 1. Last time I was in Vegas, I was absolutely throttled at a table at Monte Carlo. I lost my 25x buy in , in about 3 shoots(losing with 18,19,20 regularly). I bought back in figuring I couldnt be that unlucky, quickly lost about 15 more bets, so I lost about 40% of my vegas budget in about 5-7 shoots of BJ and walked away salty, thinking I should not play at my stakes without a larger bankroll

 

Negative variance sucks. Monte Carlo last time I checked many of the BJ shoe games on the main floor are 8 decks, which the variance is pretty wild with 8 decks. However, they do offer surrender.

 

well, buying in with 1/4 of your bankroll in one session is a lot. unless you only have limited amount of time for gambling and are only there 2-3 days. BJ is a fairly high variance game and it's really easy to churn through money when you get a bad shoe. of course it's also easy to get it all back when things turn around, but you can't run out of money first. you might try buying in with half what you normally do. if you lose it all, you know the shoe just isn't running for you right now and you come back later with the other half. losing 40% of your bankroll in one session right off the bat can definitely put a sour note in the trip.

 

Yes I agree. I think buying in with about 10% of your bankroll is about right. And betting about 3-5% of that per hand would be wise. Then you always have a chance of coming back....never give up...

 

I'd love to do this, but my bankroll is only $1000, so 10% of that is $100, and then by bets would be $3-$5. Using the risk of ruin chart (http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/12/) I can bet $20 a hand and still only have a 0.25% chance of going completely broke.

 

honestly with $1000 bankroll if you're trying to make it last more than a couple of days, $5-10 per hand is where you should be. you're missing the third variable on that risk of ruin chart and that's how many hands. if you bet $20/hand with $1000 you have a .25% chance of going broke in 200 hands. at 80 hands per hour, that's only 2.5 hours of play. if you're trying to make it last for 3-4 days at 4 hours per day, that's 12-16 hours or 960-1,280 hands. your risk of ruin at that level for that long is 20-25%. 100x more likely than your figure. $10/hand drops that down to around 1%.

 

Thank you for going over the numbers a bit, I thought that's how they lined up but wasn't positive. I'm okay with only 200 hands. I'm not primarily a BJ played, I just like to be able to play it without losing my whole bankroll. 200 hands is plenty for me, as I'll also be playing craps, poker, and some money wheel.



Just kidding about the wheel. :Þ

 

You might be joking about the money wheel... but when we were in Las Vegas in early April a lot of casinos had this new electronic Big 6 wheel, done by the same company that does Shoot to Win Craps.

Basically works the same way: you sit at your own terminal, insert money in the machine and then about every 30 seconds there is a new game. You place your bets on your terminal's screen and then whoever is next to go pulls a lever attached to their terminal to start the wheel spinning.


Anyhow, point I was going to make was: when we were in Las Vegas this last trip the machine was in a few casinos and everywhere we saw it the seats were almost always full.

 

Also, to understand you correctly, you are going for a 5 in a row streak. For you to hit that streak, it will occur only 1 out of 32 times (assuming 50-50 odds for rounding purposes). So, although I would normally buy in around 10x-15x, when I come in with different betting strategies for sessions, I would alter my buy ins. In your case, I would say 32x.

Alternatively, you could go for a 4 in a row streak (1 in 16 chance of hitting it), buy in with the same 32x. However, after going through 16x, then double your initial bet. For example, buy in at 320, initial bet at 10 looking for a 4 in a row. If it doesn't happen after 16x, then increase bet to 20 for the last 160. That would be more of a combo positive and negative progression betting pattern.

Overall, the house will win, but it is more fun to ride the ups and downs with betting patterns.