Airfare Direction?

Just booked airfare for Vegas trip Sept 29- Oct 4. Fares out of Charlotte were going up week by week. Just wondering what all you seasoned travelers thought about how the fares were going move in the next few months. I know it is just guessing but i'm curious of what you all think.

 

I've been watching airfare for around that time for a couple of months now. It's been holding steady up until a week ago where it went up 5%. In the past, I would have expected it to drop 5-10% in that 6 month window, but find it unlikely due to the rise in fuel costs. My thinking is that it will hold steady for the next few months then possibly start moving up as the seats are filled.

 

Utterly unpredictable in general, except maybe for real short-hauls.

I started using Google Flight alerts to track 2 BOS -> LAS flights on one date and 2 LAS -> BOS flights on another. I didn't set them up until I had already booked. I was OK with the prices the day I booked.

I've gotten at least one price change alert every week since I set them up two months ago. Sometimes up, sometimes down. But they've never touched the price I booked at.

But for any given route, maybe they add back a daily flight that they previously removed. That'll change things.

 

Definitely unpredictable but I'm seeing nothing that makes me think fares will go down. Fewer flights seem to be available and that means higher prices.

 

Saturday morning alert (this is for a first class seat mid-August):


Two days later (this morning):

 

The price on this changed two more times this week.

So 4 changes in 8 days.

 

I just booked a return trip from Brussels, Europe to Las Vegas. Going is BRU-JFK-LAS with Delta, return is LAS-AMS-BRU with KLM. Economy class, ‘Light’ ticket but have checked bag and seat selection with airline status. Paid €480. That’s almost as cheap as in 2019 for me.

 

IMO airfare prices are unsustainable and at the point airlines are just using "rising fuel costs" as an excuse
Example
My 3 trips so far this year phl-las nonstop $153-$258rt
Aug,Sept trips same flights are $818rt
No way 2x fuel cost = 3x+ airfare
And
If I change in MIA (50% further) fare drops to $458
Instead I booked my nonstop flights for 17k ff miles rt per flight

 

(imho)Pent up demand general inflation and fuel. Airlines are testing how much will you pay for the trip you put off for two years. Prices will not drop or even stabilize til people stop buying.

I made several trips to Vegas during Covid. Enjoyed low fares and empty planes even with the mask hassle had some great times. The airlines were losing money every day.

I spent the last month looking for an affordable fare to Vegas for June. Finally found Allegiant round trip 1 bag No seat assignment Thur-Thur red eye return for $300. If you are very flexible on dates and times there are still some bargains to be had.

It may be a while before we see discounts again--

 

My wife and I fly Delta and if it wasn't for our Son being a Pilot it would definitely be a major Bankroll leak!!

 

I genially recommend booking no more than 3 months in advance. This was absolutely true pre-covid and it cant hurt now.

If you book tooo early, I feel like they're preying on peoples FOMO. You're traveling in fall, which is a slower period. With the economy and oil prices, to me, I cant see it going much higher and you might even fall into some sort of fare sale. Worst case it will be about the same, +/- a few bucks.

 

It's not just pent up demand and fuel prices... it's also a lack of supply as most airlines aren't flying with the same # of aircrafts they did pre-COVID. Pilot staffing issues + shortage of aircrafts is a reason for this.

 

Pre vid I 100% agree with the "too early" trap but as long as the "no change fee" rules exist I recommend people "book early and book often"

 

I just booked a flight Saturday for a trip I had to postpone in March. Considering what’s been happening with airfares, I should consider myself fortunate that I only had to pay $80 above what the March flight cost ($300). There could be more upside between now and then in airfares, and given the costs of other fuels, I don’t foresee a decrease.

 

I've been watching/booking for trips the last six months. I've seen a consistent, steady trend of rising prices the closer you get to the flight date, unfortunately.

 

If I were betting on the direction of airfare price movement over the next year, I would bet on it to increase further from where we are at now.

Between upward inflationary pressure on wages and the skyrocketing cost of jet fuel (and associated derivatives), I don't think the airlines can avoid increasing prices.

For context, check out the 30 year time series of jet fuel and the recent trajectory over the past year:



And even more dramatic, to me at least, is the movement of jet fuel relative to crude:



Historically, the two move in a very correlated manner. But in the last several months, jet fuel has rocketed (ha) far above crude.

So long as the current European conflict continues, I suspect that the associated greater uncertainty in energy markets will result in greater volatility in the spot markets and a higher risk premium to be paid in the futures markets (airlines often purchase options on jet fuel futures contracts). All of this adds up to higher costs to acquire fuel, and airlines will surely attempt to pass these costs on to the customer.

 

It's more than oil; passenger counts are nearly at where they were in 2019. Biz travel is coming back. And there's issues with plane and crew shortages. Everything is working to push prices up.

You need something that affects the supply/demand balance to drive prices down at this point

 

Up? Yes.

Up enough to dissuade folks from flying? Apparently not.

 

Lack of staffing will be more acute, demand for travel will continue to rise, inflation shows no sign of leveling off and fuel prices - who knows. Yes, I see prices not getting any less expensive.

 

Interesting article about rising airfare costs. 43% rise since last year. I am booking multiple trips ahead now. Since I usually fly SW I can keep checking when they have a sale and rebooking when it's lower.


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