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NFL Week One Bets

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by UKFanatic, Sep 6, 2021.

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  1. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    In any given game, yeah I can see that. But Peyton was trash throughout his entire last season (when he was healthy enough to play). Brady will still have some good games. He will have stinkers too (just like the last couple seasons). I just assume it won't be this week because he is rested, relatively healthy, and the Cowboys defense stinks
     
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  2. Michael Smith

    Michael Smith VIP Whale

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    I listen to Cowherd—Max and SA are on at the same time as Matlock (I'm old). Colin smooches Brady's ass every chance he gets. In fact, I would say that Cowherd talks about Brady more than anything else. I just think time is the conqueror (cue Jackson Browne). Brady may have a good year, but at 44, it will be like Manning in Denver. Workmanlike and let the defense do the heavy lifting. The problem, however, might be Arrians—he likes to air it out and I'm not sure he can devise a grind it out game plan. It's why I would seriously fade TB as a repeat winner—I think GB and SF are the most serious contenders for this year's NFC championship—at least that's where my money is.
     
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  3. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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  4. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Goat of all Goats , My Hero

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    I would say the Rams are better than Packers and 49rs ,IMO think that's the Bucs only challenge (I repeat IMO):thumbsup: we will get a good idea in week 3 .
     
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  5. Michael Smith

    Michael Smith VIP Whale

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    So, Stafford is the savior? Doubt it. Shanahan owns McVay. I'm not buying the Rams this year. I think they will have no run game and Stafford will have to throw 40 times. Great defense, but it's the same defense they had last year when they couldn't match up with the Packers. I just think that if the Niners stay healthy, they win the West and maybe the NFC. I'll take 6-1.
     
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  6. gadgets19

    gadgets19 VIP Whale

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    Now all depends if I decide to go crazy a make an upset card.
    2 of 3 out of CIN/IND/NYG
     
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  7. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Niners are 5 and 3 against Rams since McVay took over. That's good, but I wouldn't call that owning another team. That said, I think both these teams will be very good this year. I think they will have the two highest win totals in the NFC this year
     
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  8. Michael Smith

    Michael Smith VIP Whale

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    Two of those losses during Rams SB year and Shanahan was using C.J. Beathard at QB. Four in a row since. This year will tell us a lot about these coaches as McVay moves on to Stafford and Shanahan now has a decent backup if JG goes down again.
     
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  9. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    By the same token, McVay was using Goff during those four losses. There is a reason he benched him before the playoffs last season. Regardless, I like both coaches. They are both really good offensive minds and they each have flaws as well. I think they will have the two best win totals in the NFC this year and wouldn't be surprised if either team wins it all :thumbsup:
     
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  10. zoobrew

    zoobrew VIP Whale

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    Of course the Rams fans have to wonder if Stafford took the Lions "Bobby Lane" curse with him:wink2::grrr:
     
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  11. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

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    Gotta be careful with rams lots of changes to the D this off-season including theIR stud DC
     
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  12. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I'm not sure how to feel about their linebackers, but the D line and secondary look good. Plus, I think they are going to score more this year. If they score more, that should put pressure on opponents to throw more to compete in those games. That plays into the strength of the Rams defense
     
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  13. Mr. Scripps

    Mr. Scripps High-Roller

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    Like the Saints to win, Winston is an upgrade from Brees and as UK said good matchup on defense.
     
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  14. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I did end up backing out of this bet yesterday. Now the ine has oed to 4.5 and I am talking myself back into jumping back on it, lol. Will probably wait another da or two and see where the line ends up.

    I like the Saints O line. I assume they will put Lattimore on a secondary receiver and double Adams. If they can run the ball well, control the clock, and keep Rodgers on the sideline, that is a good receipie for them to at least keep it close in this game
     
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  15. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I decided to add a couple small player props on tonight's game. I waered under on Zeke's rushing yards and over on lamb's receiveing yards. Probably twenty minutes after I placed the bets, I was taking a walk and listening to a couple sprts betting podcasts. Both of them mentioned those props are being on their list of favorites for tonight. Not sure if that is a good or bad sign lol
     
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  16. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

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    My concers with the Rams D is that they lost Donalds wingman on the Dline in Michael Brockers, a pair of DBs in Troy Hill and John Johnson. On offense they lost a good center in Blythe and Whitworth at LT will be 40 soon and may regress
     
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  17. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Legit questions. The D line changes look like a significant downgrade on paper, but I think will be better thn you are giving them credit for. Part of the reason for that is because the attention Donald gets makes things easier for everyone else up front. I think the seconday will be fine. Losing Hill hurts. He was a great third corner. But I like Williams. The O line, I have no idea how to analyze. I just rely on what I read from people who do know how to analyze those units and everything I read this summer suggested it will be fine (not spectacular).
     
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  18. zoobrew

    zoobrew VIP Whale

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  19. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    That started well! I won my Dallas +8 wager (small, but I will still take it), both my props (easy money; really, I was just fortunate to predict the Dallas strategy on offense very accurately), and I even threw an over bet down right before the game kicked off. So now I have a little cushion to work with for the rest of the weekend. As of last night, my decision to place my wagers ealry in the week has both helped and hut. A couple lines have moved in my favor, but two moved against me (including the Dallas line, but fortunately that did not matter)
     
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  20. Travel Fanatic

    Travel Fanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    A few observations and thoughts after last night's game:

    *The line movement yesterday and today on the games I wagered has been small, but interesting. I cashed out of my New Orleans bet (at +4) and the line soon went to +4.5. That had me thinking about wagering it again. Tonight, its back down to 3.5. Haven't seen any news, so not sure why it moving. Similarly, the Giants moved to +3. The Broncos seem to be a popular pick this season. Now its back to +2.5. Finally, the Vegas line moved half a point to +4, which makes sense considering the Baltimore injuries yesterday. Glad I got the extra half point by wagering early. My largest bet (the Cincy under) has moved half a point in my favor. I still expect at least another half point in my favor by kickoff

    *I am trying to decide if my power rating on Dallas is off. I bet them last night, so obviously I never thought they were trash the Tampa bettors thought of them. In a lot of ways, they were exactly what I expected. Strong offense and a weak defense. Part of me feels the game was not as close as the score indicated because they won the (true) turnover battle 3 to 1 and turnovers make such a huge difference in any given game. At the same time, Dallas was below average in the red zone and kicking game. They weren't great in the red zone last year either. But that stat is not usually consistent year to year and you can't forget the turds they had playing QB for a lot of those red zone opportunities last season. So maybe last night they were just unlucky in the red zone and they are, in fact, better than they showed last night. The main factor, however, that surprised me and has me thinking that I should have rated the Cowboys a tad higher in my initial rankings was the coaching. They had a really good offensive game plan last night. i even said before the game that Dallas could compete if they abandoned the run, ran play action, and threw a lot of quick balls to keep Dak upright. They did exactly that, but even beyond what I anticipated, mostly by throwing and setting up plays outside the numbers where the tampa defense is weak. That was really impressive how many different ways they found to get the ball wide and match up against weak corners. Initially, I rated DC ahead of Dallas in the division, but the harder schedule for DC would make the division a toss up. Now I'm feeling Dallas might be a game better than DC if they keep this up. And yes, I have way too much time on my hands to think about these things lol

    *Something else that I pondered today: the Dallas offense kind of reminds me of the late nineties/early 2000s Titans. Until the playoffs of their Super Bowl run in 1999/2000, they were a power running team. But by the 2000 regular seaosn, they finally transitioned the focus of the offense away from Eddie George and shifted it to Air McNair. The way Dallas started last season (before the Dak injury) and the game last night feels similar to me. For a few season, Zeke was the focal point of the offense behind a really good O line. But now its Dak's team, just like the Titans became McNair's team. Of course, the Titans had a much better defense and were one bad game against the Ravens from making it back to the big game. I don't think Dallas is there yet, but it should be interesting to watch over the next couple seasons if they can rebuild their defense
     
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