Safest method for Coin-In Theo?

My last two trips to Vegas, I feel like my coin in did NOT translate to the 10-20 percent average estimated loss or theo. Maybe I was just unlucky, or maybe there is a safer way to maximize value? If I had $1000, is it SAFER, for purposes of earning theo coin in, to do 50 twenty dollar spins, or 1000 single dollar spins on a slot machine? Or does it truly not make a difference? My theory is the more spins guarantees a better theo result, almost like doing a poll or survey of people, the variance of range is smaller.

I imagine that's also why Video Poker takes more dollars per tier credit earned? Because the house edge can be reduced if you're playing by the books?

What about "specialty slots" - are those tier credits reduced as a way to pay for the licensing? If I play any licensed machine from the 2000's, is it likely to be considered a specialty? I want to have the most fun (which yes, means Willie Wonka over some basic 7's and cherries) but not if it is going to cost me, I've got another 80k TCs to earn Platinum at MLife and I need to be savvy.

 

The more spins you can get, the safer your bankroll will likely be. However, with that said, you're still dealing with a very small sample size. Anything can still happen.

 

More play equals better chance of arriving at variance, whether that's a good or bad thing. Your best bet to hit variance would be to make tens of thousands of spins for a nickel. But you'd be virtually guaranteed to lose 10-12% over time.

The higher coin-in per tier credit games tend to be those with lower holds, just like VP is as you mentioned. I'm not sure why they would ever apply that to the licensed copyright games as they have the highest holds in the casino among machines. You can still hit variance on those, just it's going to be at 12 to 15% loss instead of 10-12% just ballparking.

 

I see what you're saying MCann, do a bazillion nickels, you will likely NOT leave Vegas in the green, but your theo will be earned. Do a few hundred dollar spins, you could come away rich, or still broke, with a lower theo. Neither is a perfect win, which is why, it's Vegas

 

Exactly. I hit right at variance in my Biloxi trip I just took. I did almost $15,000 coin-in at Beau and ended up in the $1,400s in the red. But as many 2 and 3 and 5 dollar spins as I did, I spent almost 12 hours in the casino my last day just minimum betting stuff and who knows how many thousands of spins I did that day, but it was many thousands for sure.

 

I’ve found the old 5 reel, 9 line nickel slots give a high rate of hit but low volatility. I can sometimes play a Hundy on one for an hour two. Really stacks up the tier credits. They just don’t give the cool bonuses like the video slots.

 

I miss the ones that had a good bonus round, like Flip-Flop.

 

Joaks, yes, when I was just trying to learn and figure all this Theo stuff out, I think I found a machine called I dunno, Fireball? It seemed to add up the TCs like 20x faster than the other "fun" machines I played, and not just because they have mini games which eat up time. Ironically, the other coolest bonuses are the ANCIENT machines that have reel sets that rotate on a spinning arm of sorts, where you like get clock time in a kitchen or "travel around the world." Bizarre, probably fascinating at the time of invention. Still now, really.

 

First off. You cold play a 100% machine and still walk away with NO MONEY. Actually, the chances are very high this will happen.

Let me explain. Assume you play a $1 per spin machine. And, the only possible win is $1,000. No little wins. No bigger wins. Just that one. So, only one in every one thousand spins will pay anything- on average. And, you could put in $5,000 and win nothing, or you could put in $1 and win the $1,000.

As to nickels vs dollars, etc. Most higher denom machines are a few percent better than low denom in their hold.

With all that said, a $1,000 bankroll you can easily burn through it in 20 minutes, and you could also get to play for 10 hours. All depends on the wins along the way.

 

I've determined it is all pure luck. You could do things on the margins that should help. Higher domination and such. However, without millions of spins, you are likely not going to see a difference.

This is probably not even something that matters, but psychologically, I've been trying to get up from a machine after a big win. Allows you not to give it all back. But probably could also just give it all back on the next machine.

 

I play for win, play for fun, or play for the thrill.
But I don't play for theo, or for comps. That's the wrong approach.

 

First and most important to understand is coin-in and bankroll are 2 dramatically different things. In your example you are talking about a bankroll of 1000 you are willing to lose. That will never be less than 1000 coin in, but should almost always be more than 1000 coin in. Hold matters in this, but variance and volatility matter far more. To level out variance and volatility the more spins you can give yourself the better off you will be. Say you do something like 1000 spins on the dollar machine; figuring a 10% hold your theoretical loss is 100 dollars and you should still have 900 left in your bankroll. In actuality you may have 0 (unfathomably rare, but possible) or you could have 100s of 1000s of dollars (top jackpot on every spin) (also unfathomably rare, but possible). Assuming you are perfect to theo you now begin the cycle again with 900 1$ spins (your coin in is now 1900 from your 1000 bankroll). Assuming perfection again you would have 810 and repeat the process again so on and so forth until out.

You are not looking to change the theo result, that's a fixed number for the casino and is entirely theoretical. You want to change the actual result and have it be different from the theo to the good.

Coin-in of 10000 on a 10% hold slot has a theoretical loss of 1000. That's the number your comps are predominantly based on. From that 10000 you could have any number between 0 and a-lot depending on variance, volatility and "luck". Your goal is to maximize your coin in and therefore your theoretical worth to the caisno, while also minimizing your out of pocket loss.

To that end, more spins is better usually, because while the variance has a greater chance to even out, however at too small of a number, the opportunity to hit a big win which is needed to balance the ledger, may not be big enough. What you're looking for is balance between a big enough risk to produce decent wins, but small enough to bare 10-15 losing spins in a row.

By the way, I think it's awesome you are trying to learn all of this and I will help any way I can. The more educated you can be when gambling, the more likely you are at least getting what you deserve!!

 

Don't play for theo, comps etc is true, but is different than knowing what your theo is and what your comps should be. That way you can maximize return from a losing proposition. If you are 1 TC away from Diamond with CET, but have decided you are done playing for the year, you would not risk 5 dollars to earn a 100 dollar dinner, no resort fees, etc? If you would then you are "playing for comps"

 

Well hit damn Alex, thank you. Do you know if there’s a chart explaining what the expected result or technical result of a certain amount of dollar spend should result in for Theo / coin in? I imagine an excel formula could actually calculate this.

And thank you, you’re exactly right, I’m not going to legitimately solely play for comps, obviously comps are never or rarely going to be HIGHER than what you’re supposed to lose, that would just be bad business. That said, yes, knowing where you are at and what you’re after when nearing a certain threshold when doing ones gambling anyway, is very useful.

 

Thanks NoStress, that makes a lot of sense. I guess if 5 million people buy a lottery ticket for a buck and 1 person wins 4.5 million dollars then the lottery company could also estimate a 10 percent estimated Theo but almost everyone loses

 

Out of curiosity, what perk of the Platinum tier appeals to you so much?

 

Based on other threads, I assume its the cruise offer

 

From my very limited experience and sample size.. coin in is dependant on 2 items, amount bet and type of slot... I normally have a 10k coin in "target" for every gaming day, that keeps my offers where I like them, I like to play a combination of older mechanical reels and penny slots. Penny slots can suck a hundo within 3-5 minutes if you don't hit a bonus.. even at 2.50 or 3.00 bet level, I love them, but between the bonus dependance and the slightly lower payout % they can be moneysuckers... for mechanical reels, the older the better, older machines tend to have better payout percentage and you can minimize variance with the 5 or 9 line machines at the quarter or dollar level, several 5-line dollar machines will let you cycle your money much longer, mixed 3 bars are very common and pay back your 5 credits, or 9 line quarter machines will also work as well.. that has been my limited experience, but based on my mlife statements I am generally at the 85% theo or above.. hope this helps..

 

What does this mean exactly? For example, if a quarter machine returns 90%, then that's 10% theo, right? If that's right, are you saying that you're able to get enough replay which each dollar, like 8.5 times replay, to achieve 85%?
Or are you saying that the machines you play pays back 85% per spin?

 

My bad.. I meant that I normally get an 8500 coin in for every 1000 dlls of actual lost money... so 10K coin in cost me anywhere between 900-1200 dlls of actual money lost