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Table Games Dice Control in Craps Tables

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Bryant, Jan 7, 2020.

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  1. pressitagain

    pressitagain VIP Whale

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    This should be simple...

    if a dice setter sets the dice and throws the dice.....OR
    If just throws the dice....
    You’re variance argument says the outcome is the same. Correct??


    If the result is the same..... You can’t claim that dice setting doesn’t work!!!
    That’s illogical!!!
     
  2. BaileyPaws

    BaileyPaws Low-Roller

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    I'm pretty sure there is no evidence either way. In terms of repeatability and specifically reproducibility over time. If you find any feel free to post it here besides wong's report.

    I would say play how you want. Don't stop believing either way. I have a box fresh pair here. I'm going to work. Its gonna be a boring shift. Might as well get some practice hooks in on the conference table... its about the size of a craps table :love:. Dont wanna poke any eyeballs out with those voodoo things. I have a very high arch :headbang:

    If it makes you happy do it!
     

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  3. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    <In my most non confrontational voice>

    Can you tell me how one goes about "preventing a 7 being rolled"? I'd offer that you have to TRY to roll something else, one can't simply try to NOT do something when they are looking for a result. I guess a dice influencer could argue that there are six combinations of 7 on the dice and I'm trying to throw one of the other 30, but that seems a little ridiculous, doesn't it? If you are saying that setting both dice with a 3 facing up, tossing them exactly 5 MPH and landing them exactly one inch from the wall produces less 7's then it has to produce a specific number more often or it's just a random result, isn't it?

    In fact, a dice influencer should be trying to roll a hardway each time, not because it gives them the best payout, but because it gives them the largest margin of error when making the toss because any roll that isn't a hardway means each die is only one side away from being a seven because on each die the number to make a 7 is always on the complete opposite side of any given number (1 is opposite 6, 2 is opposite 5 and 3 is opposite 4), when a hardway is thrown the number on either die to make a 7 is now two sides away. So, if you are correct and the DI is just trying to "not throw a 7" he should be aiming for a hardway as that gives them the most leeway to miss their shot and still have a desirable result.



    Ah, my point exactly. They won't, no matter how hard you try, start the same way and we are talking about a process in which thousands of an inch WILL matter. You will not be able to, not matter how much you try, always stand in the exact same position with the dice the exact same distance to the floor (within thousand of an inch) and release them exactly the same way each time, you just can't.

    I would invite you to do exactly what I said above and set the dice in any manner you wish, you can stack them on top of each other for all I care and drop them even 100 times and I bet you will find the outcome does not produce a number more often than it should and it certainly won't fall outside of normal variance.

    Don't forget, that isn't even the endgame unless you can convince the casino to let you stand on the craps table with a pair of BBQ tongs and drop the dice and they count that as a roll. If you perfect the BBQ tong method you must still introduce swinging your arm, landing the dice in the same spot and then deal with those pesky pyramids on the back wall.

    Nobody has and nobody will ever reduce the house edge in craps by any measurable margin, let alone 1.41%.
     
  4. mrem3200

    mrem3200 VIP Whale

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    Also, don't forget the bounce off the felt has to be factored in. No two tables have the same "bounciness" if that is even a word. So, someone would have to realize that they are on a table that is firmer (or softer) and would have to know to increase the height they throw the dice by 2 inches and decrease the speed by .5 MPH to account for the firmness of the felt.

    As I have said on this thread, and ever other one on the topic. It is simple, if the casinos thought it gave the shooter an advantage they would not allow it. They let people set the dice all they want, just as long as they don't hold the game up.

    I have never heard someone explain to me that dice setting/influence gives the player a statistical edge and yet in the same breath explain why the casinos still allow it.
     
  5. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Nor will you.

    Likely for the same reason these dice influencers don't train themselves TO throw the 7 instead of trying to avoid it. I would argue that it must be MUCH easier to train yourself to toss the most likely number than to try and train yourself to avoid it.

    If I could take the number that is most likely to show up anyway and increase my ability to throw it by even 10% I could leave the casino a very wealthy man and do it in very short order.
     
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  6. AyDee

    AyDee is getting too old for this

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    I know this is going nowhere, but I hope it stays civil, and it is mildly amusing..:peace:. I re-read my Wong link, so

    an addendum
    to Wong trials., I believe in the first trial, which he won, Wong did cover any bets against him up to total of $100K.
    The terms of the bet were whether precision shooters could roll fewer than 79.5 sevens in 500 rolls of the dice. The expected number in a random game would be 83.33. The probability of rolling 79 or fewer sevens in 500 random rolls is 32.66%. First test had 74 sevens.

    as I linked and mentioned before, second test of 1000 rolls, with only one roller (wong struck above average at his first attempt, shared with another), combined with first 500, averaged out to expected, and Wong retracted his belief that Dice was beatable..

    Supposedly in the book (or after its 2005 publishing date?) he may have tried to explain why second test might have been tainted, @Nittany1 , could you give that a skim if you have a chance?
    He never flipped back to believing though, IIRC.

    The book is $9 on kindle from Amazon, maybe I'll get it if I hit a few hardways.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
  7. mrem3200

    mrem3200 VIP Whale

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    That's the issue with this whole discussion, which I think is a good one and I agree with you mildly amusing. I 100% don't believe it, but I can't prove it since it is not possible to prove a negative. Much like the people that think it is possible can't prove it. I would need a statistician to help me here. What WOULD it take to prove it? I don't know the answer to that. There was a post from a guy earlier in the thread, and (not picking on him) but he said some people in his church group, or something like that, had a tendency to throw hardways. Now, that is clearly too small of a sample and meaningless, it was variance nothing more nothing less. Is Wongs test above of 1,500 roll enough to prove it doesn't work? Or at least didn't for him. I don't know.
     
  8. Electroguy563

    Electroguy563 Vegas Joker

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    How true. Just between these two properties that are linked together for example (The Cal and MSS Downtown) if you play both properties tables long enough you will notice a big difference.

    At MSS you will feel like you are throwing dice at a plywood platform with no bounce at all. You tend to throw harder to hit the back wall. Otherwise the suits will get on your case.

    At the Cal if you were to throw like that it will bounce off the table.

    Many times I had to remind myself which property I'm playing. Anyway it takes a while for me to get back into rhythm.
     
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  9. Nittany1

    Nittany1 VIP Whale

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    I appreciate you reviewing the book and it has been years since I read it.
    Tried to find the book and could not.
    I must have been mistaken about his conclusions.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
  10. BaileyPaws

    BaileyPaws Low-Roller

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    I'm sure dice weight plays a factor too on that whole deboggle. +/- 1g or even .5g ....plus different table conditions as mentioned above...

    Edit. Not per die per different property.
     
  11. AyDee

    AyDee is getting too old for this

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    my last trip, MSS tables seemed pretty bouncy (also very clean felt). Dealer friend told me they were redone around a year ago, felt more recent than that.. Suits did get on my case. I was tired and maybe slightly short rolling one of them. looked enough like a random bounce to me..

    (every hot roll I see seems to get sweated at Cal and for 2x odds, no thanks)

    4Q, now, that table has a deadness I like, and a kind (so far) boxman/crew as well.
    Freemont tables are pretty tired as well. and the roll counter would be real interesting in a VMB meetup experiment.
    ;) I love a few don't bettors at the table.. someone's always getting paid. Come lay 20x dont odds at MSS. Sometimes both sides can come out up.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
  12. Electroguy563

    Electroguy563 Vegas Joker

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    You know, I might have been a bit hasty in my post. I'm trying to remember my last trip (Nov.) and you are right. I did bounce a couple of throws off the MSS table. I did visit Fremont so maybe that's where that "flat surface" feel is.

    I do know I always have a problem with Cal/MSS. What works for me at the Cal I notice I always have to adjust when at MSS and vice versa. Seems like the tables at both are the same length so maybe it's just the difference in bounce. I like to throw at stick left right at the hook.
     
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  13. Big Tip

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  14. Big Tip

    Big Tip VIP Whale

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    I appreciate that.
    I don't know why anyone would try to post in a confrontational voice about something as unimportant as a discussion about something so innocuous as this one is.

    I don't think one person on this thread has said that dice setting unquestionably works. The only people that anyone should get upset about are the shysters that sell the "how to" programs to those that are obviously less intelligent than we folks discussing it are.
     
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  15. AyDee

    AyDee is getting too old for this

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    Should I start a thread about yelling at the dice table, because it seems to work for me? ;):p (at increasing my ev, meaning entertainment value)

    I'm still working on my "comprehensive C's of craps system", but one day, I'll release it for free. .:faint::whistle:
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
  16. Rob6 8

    Rob6 8 Low-Roller

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    When playing craps you should
    1) always try to win. Try anything YOU think will help.
    2) Have fun. Try anything YOU think will help.
    Usually the two go together
    But think 3 times before paying someone to teach you something you may not be able to do.
     
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  17. AyDee

    AyDee is getting too old for this

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    also there's tons of free dice control theory, slow mo rolls, and "flim-flammery" up on youtube to watch, and mock, if that's what you're into.

    Also some half decent betting systems.. I love CEG because (same w. BJ), they often run so damn bad at the beginning, you go, "yep, that looks real, just like Vegas".
     
  18. Big Tip

    Big Tip VIP Whale

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    I had a good laugh with a thought this generated for me.

    The folks that are so adamant that dice control does NOT work probably adhere to the plethora of superstitions surrounding the game.I say probably because most of us do follow those superstitions. Like betting big when the woman shooter says, "first time at a craps table for me." Her roll probably won't be any better than randomness says, but hey, it MIGHT!
     
  19. BlacklabberMike

    BlacklabberMike MIA

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    47 minutes at Casino Royale. her quote later was "I should have bet more":kill:
     
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  20. vegaskid74

    vegaskid74 VIP Whale

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    In fairness, this statement is just as unprovable as anything ever spoken by the dice influencing believers. Again, the fact that you can't do a thing, don't know anyone who can do that thing, and haven't witnessed anyone doing that thing doesn't make it impossible. I love science too, but there were a whole lot of things that were thought impossible (flight, space travel, etc.) by really smart people until they weren't. Again, I'm not arguing that there are thousands of dice influencers out there right now killing the casinos. If they exist I would guess that there are less than a hundred in the entire world. Interestingly enough, most card counting experts agree that the number of card counters making real money (say $250k+ per year) is probably under a hundred as well.

    This is an easy question to answer. Back in the 1960s Ed Thorp came out with "Beat the Dealer" which proved that blackjack was beatable and taught players how to do it. The casinos freaked out and changed the rules of the game to make it unbeatable. The result was that players quit playing in protest. So then the casinos had a choice to make: kill the game for fear of card counters, or leave it alone for a few weeks, possibly take some losses, and see what happened.

    They decided to put the old rules back in place, they held their breath, and the rest is history. Blackjack quickly became the most popular casino game in the world and the amount of money being won by casinos on it absolutely exploded. Because here's the thing: blackjack is 100% scientifically proven to be beatable, and yet it's impossible for 99.99% of the people who try to count cards to do it successfully for any serious amount of money because of the skills and psychological toughness that is required.

    Hundreds of thousands of people have lost billions of dollars over the years trying to beat a game that is proven to be beatable, but they never had the skills to beat. Many of those people never would have risked a dime on the game if they knew it was unbeatable. The casinos did the smart thing by leaving a beatable game on the floor. They've made thousands of times as much money off of wanna be card counters over the years than they've lost to the few really capable ones.

    So the easy answer to your question is that casinos make tons of money off of wanna be dice influencers as well. If dice influencing is possible, it's certainly so difficult that there must be thousands of DIs who think they can do it but can't for every one that truly can. If the casinos refuse to allow dice setting and "controlled throwing", that will just dispel the illusion that the game is easily beatable in the wanna be DIs minds and chase them away from the game. Remember, these are people who are only playing the game (or betting far more than they would for pure entertainment purposes) because they believe it's beatable. Why disavow them of that belief? I'll gladly take the risk of having a few truly skilled DIs win a few thousand off of me for the chance to make millions off of the thousands who think they can but never had a chance. And interestingly enough, while blackjack has been dying over the past 20 years (because the casinos have made it effectively unbeatable with 6:5, etc.) craps has been enjoying a resurgence.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020
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