Table Games Dice Control in Craps Tables

It all strikes me as untestable.

The shooter carefully sets the dice, throws: easy 6.

Did he have any influence? How can you tell?

 

The original post asked “do you feel your dice control attempts have given you a slight advantage over the casino at the craps tables?”
He was not asking for charts, graphs or data. Real experiences...Gambling in general involves variance. A person who sets the dice correctly, throws the dice correctly, and makes wise bets on the table, might be able to influence the outcome of numbers just enough to negate the house edge. Just as blackjack player who counts cards or uses correct strategy can influence the winning edge.

 

I think the difference is that, with card-counting in blackjack, it's verifiable math - anyone can use it & the math stays true, regardless. When I get a positive count, it's a positive count for everyone at the table, whether they act on that or not.
With dice-setters, it comes down to a matter of "faith". There is no consistent or obvious math to support it.
It's: Do you believe that that the shooter is able to physically minimize the odds of a 7 being being rolled (or some other number or set of numbers).

The results of a positive count can be tracked...the results can be accurately predicted & observed and they can be reasonably depended on, so long as one recognizes that variance is still "in play". (You can still get a K-6 on a +5 count in a 2-deck game...unlikely, but it can & does happen from time to time).

A dice-setter? Unless one tracks 1000s of rolls, from the same shooter at the same table? Variance can explain every single good run or bad run.
Play even just 100 hands of blackjack with a +3 count or better on a 2-deck game? I can practically guarantee that the player will win more units than flat-betting, assuming he increases his bet on positive counts and decreases them on negative ones.
Even with variance, card-counting is remarkably consistent & dependable, given enough hands played.

 

Craps is like shooting the rapids with a bunch of strangers. Never know what the next turn will be like.

Why I posted this I have no idea.

 

I played on a table in Harrah's where this German guy was throwing using a setting technique. He hit the Fire Bet and the place went bonkers. Even though I arrived on his second roll and was shut out of the Fire Bet, I made a $600 profit on his turn.

 

If YOU believe it helps you, then go for it. I DON'T and bet that way.

 

I put the 3's to make a V and throw. sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.
However you throw, you need a bankroll of at least $200 at a $5 table.
JMHO.

 

I personally believe it's highly unlikely that 99.99% of those who think they can influence dice actually can. That being said, I learned a long time ago that just because something is impossible for me or even 99.99% of the population doesn't mean it's impossible for everyone. My guess is that dice influencing is probably possible, and there are about as many successful practitioners in the world as there are Michael Jordans, Tom Bradys, Tiger Woodses, Justin Verlanders, etc. in the world. Just because I can't throw a baseball 98 mph and hit a 6" target 60.5 feet away repeatedly doesn't mean no one can.

 

So remove all the variables, run a test and see that "Dice influencing" is just nonsense people on YouTube spout to sell systems and somehow, people have bought it.

Would you agree that, even when standing next to the stickman, the dice must travel over three feet and then hit the back wall that is designed with pyramid shaped bumped to ensure the dice bounce off it randomly? Would you agree with that? I'm not really sure that point is debatable so I'm going to assume you agree.

Are you of standard height, at least to the point that it is not more than three feet to the ground when you stand up straight and leave your arm hang to the side? I'm willing to say for taller folks that may vary and be over three feet, but still unlikely.

Still with me? Hang in there, I'm getting to my point.

We will now remove as many variables as possible and prove you cannot, with any predictability, and certainly not enough to even dent the house edge, control the outcome of the dice.

Stand with the dice between your thumb and forefinger with your arm hanging straight down and release the dice directly to the floor. You may use a carpeted floor, a hardwood floor, a tile floor or you may lay felt that matches the craps table on the floor, I don't care.

We have now removed as many moving parts as possible. There is no arm swing to worry about, no wrist action to control, no distance to the back wall to worry about, no chips in the way, etc... The only moving part is the actual release of the dice from your fingers. This is all I want you to work on, a consistent release of the dice from your fingers which would be part of the player's toss anyway, but I have simplified the entire action to exactly one variable. I will go one step further in case you are worried about the humidity causing the dice to stick to your fingers and allow you to use talcum powder if you wish (something the casino surely won't). Not sure the powder will ensure that consistent release? Ok, I'll go one step further, you may use a set of BBQ tongs to release the dice. This will ensure they are released the same way every time AND reduce the distance the dice travel to the floor.

Have I removed as many variables as possible yet?

Practice that as long as you want and I am sure you will find the outcome of the dice dropping to the floor to be, wait for it........completely random.


There is a reason that casino dice have a size tolerance of .0002 inches, zero tolerance for weight difference on any side of the die and even the depth of the spots on the die cannot vary more than .0004 inches.

That is a pretty demanding set of specs for the accuracy of the dice and people think they can control said dice across as much as 8 feet, swinging their arm, releasing the dice, avoiding chips on the table at a rate more accurate than those specs?

Come on people.

 

Anyone that ''controls'' the dice, won't last long at any ''real'' casino.
Someone might get away with that shit at a ''house casino'',or at a church bingo night type place.
But in a casino nowadays.... Nope.

 

I like to employ dice control techniques. I try for consistency. I set for hardways and I set for the 7 when I throw on the come-out.

It's fun. It's part of playing craps. Trying to win against the casino. Who knows, just at the moment of me throwing one of the millions of throws I tried to control, the stars might just align and the universe is in harmony.

I got it right and the dice land 4 and 4. And I played the hard eight with a black chip.

Like I mentioned, it's all for the fun and love of craps.

 

Everything you say is true, but that still doesn't prove that dice influencing isn't at least theoretically possible. Practically impossible for the vast majority of the population? Sure. But as mentioned above, so are the exploits of Lebron James, Tiger Woods (in his prime), Tom Brady, etc. I absolutely agree that those who are selling courses on dice control are hucksters who almost certainly can't do it themselves and have zero chance of teaching someone else how to do it. Lebron James, Tiger Woods, and Tom Brady don't give lessons. They just go about doing what they (and no one else) can do. I believe there are a few DIs out there like that as well, but I certainly can't prove it either.

 

You forgot to mention practice.

(tangentially OT)
Just started watching a doc Takumi: on Japanese craftsmanship (had too many talking heads in it to stick with it, also just saw it is produced by Lexus so prob becomes an infomercial).. (amazon streaming, though there may be a 60,000 hour version here: https://takumi-craft.com/us/en )

but my short takeaway:

Made by Chef’s Table director Clay Jeter, the film looks at the Japanese concept of Takumi:

In the West it’s often considered that it takes 10,000 hours of study for the average person to become an expert in their subject. But in Japan you’re not considered a master of your craft until you’ve spent 60,000 hours refining your skills. That’s the equivalent of working eight hours a day, 250 days a year for 30 years.

 

To be fair, there's also a delta between "theoretically possible under the laws of physics" and "theoretically possible without getting caught and thrown out". The vast majority of dice-influencers employ various sliding techniques, which surveillance (or even an observant pit boss) will catch on to.

 

Interesting. I've always heard the term Takumi used in the context of an optical lens maker who is highly skilled and can detect glass flaws via hearing, among other tricks of the trade, of course.

I take it then that the term is more of a generic term for a master craftsperson.

 

In all my years on VMB, I haven’t seen one person make the claim to be a ‘dice controller’ or a ‘dice influencer.’ The detractors need to recognize the distinction between the three terms...

Also, it’s illogical for ANY detractor to claim to understand variance. If a dice setter has the same variance whether they grab the dice and throw them or whether they set the dice...why argue variance???? Again....illogical argument....

BUT if there is even the slightest chance that dice setting MIGHT work....

 

You are, at least somewhat, comparing apples and oranges. Let's use Lebron as an example. I can make a 3-pointer, I've done it and so have countless high school athletes in real games. Lebron just does it better than the rest of us, on that we agree. He's accomplishing something that has a decent margin of error. Did you know two basketballs can nearly fit side by side and go through the hoop at the same time? It's off by just over an inch.

When you try to throw an exact number on the dice the margin of error is less than a hundredth of an inch. Nobody can be that accurate.

Lebron's shooting percentage from the field is .504 for his career, when a "dice influencer" can call his shot and hit it even half that much I would be inclined to listen. You will not find such a person.

 

I've read this post several time and have no idea what point you are trying to make.

It does seem as though you are saying I do not understand variance. When you have the time I would like to have that argument.

When I play craps I am a "pick em up and wing em" thrower. My local casino once had a promo where they awarded prizes to the 5 longest rolls of the day. I won second, fourth and fifth in the same day with rolls of 46, 42 and 41. I never won a top 5 spot again in the two years they had that promo.

I guess, by your definition I was a dice influencer for exactly one day.

 

Let it be said again, this is not the purported goal of dice setting. The claim is that it can prevent a 7 being rolled less times than average.

Also, I didn't think that your idea of dropping dice with tongs supports disproving of the theory.
I would be willing to bet that if you hold the dice with 3-3 (or any same, repeated number) facing skyward and dropped them on even a hard floor, they would come up a certain repeated way more often than if a random numbers are held skyward on each drop. Yes I know that they are going to bounce a lot when they hit the floor. This is what apparently validates your point. "Certainly that bounce creates randomness." But if they are starting the same way, then more often than random, they will do the same thing. They won't repeat every time of course. Far from it. Just more often than random. Maybe only 8% more. Or 1.41% (See what I did there? )

LOL, like I said at the beginning of the thread, I really don't care if this is the 5th or 6th dice setting discussion I've participated in here on VMB!