LIVE from Aria, a 36 hour sports betting spectacular!!!

put down the bottle lol.

 

At the skypool now. So here is the early afternoon update.

After lunch I stopped by an emptyy craps table. Since it was empty, I bet my usual dark side wagers. It went ok. Should have stopped sooner, but still left the table up a couple hundred. Then I started to feel a bit ill. I walked too the high limit for a piece of chocolate, hopsing it would sooothe my stomach. It did a little, so I sat down at a table thinking I would play a couple dozen hands. It didn't go as planned.

The first two thirds of the shoe was a disaster. Too mny plyers and then a long nsty chop. That's the pattern that always gets me. Soon, I realized I had given back half my winnings from the morning. Plus, another big bettor sat down with me and was bettting really large (20 to 40 thousand a hand). He would hve been crushed, but we hit a long streak of pairs and he kept winning the side bet. he smartly left the table up about 50k. I kept playing. Thankfully, it finally turned. The bank started winning. At one point early in the shoe, player was ahead of the bank by 12. By the last hand, it was tied 36 each. And the last hand was a bank! Got back my losses plus a couple thousand!

So now I am at the pool and about to finalize my NFL picks. It will likely take a couple hours, so I will update later. One thing I have noticed, though, at this pool: the men and women serving and attending here are dustractingly good looking, lol. I come to Vegas so often and have seen so much, I don't usually notice that. I feel like I have seen it all. But this pool season, I feel like Aria has morphed into Ace Rothstein and is weighing the pool employees before work each day

Will send out my final picks in a bit

 

Yeah, I can make a case against each team in my top five. I am not very high on your Jags this year. But, they do play in the worst division in football, so who knows. I wouldn't be surprised if eight wins is enough to win that division

 

He played against a great defense in Super Bowl

 

Pats will be just fine.I think of watching them play in February in Miami ,close to my house 10 minutes

 

i'll be at the pats-skins game in october. pats side, 50 yard line, like 15 rows up or so.

 

Take Arizona to be the team to go 0-8 at home.

 

OK, research finished and bets determined. I will post them tonight or tomorrow after I have actually made them. But for now, here is my general analysis:

AFC playoff team will be Pats, Browns (surprised me), Texans (by default), Chiefs, with Denver getting one wild card and Pittsburgh and the Chargers battling for the other spot. NFCplayoff teams will be Eagles, Packers, Saints, and Rams, with Chicago,Dallas and Atlanta battling for the wild cards.

A few surprises for me when I drilled down into the schedules. I like Denver, but did not expect their schedule to work out so favorably. They are obviously my big dark horse playoff team. But I see them not only making the playoffs, but also wiinning if they get the Texans.

I am on board with the Browns being improoved and considered them a fringe playoff contender. I assumed they would end up with 9 wins. But after analyzing the schedule, I mark them down for 11 wins.

In the NFC, the Rams schedule is brutal. Just brutal!!! I think they win their division via tiebreaker with only 9 wins. That puts the Eagles and Saints in the top seed positions in the conference.

Somehow I found three wins for the Dolphins, which is about two more thann I assumed they would get. Stilll, I am taking thhe udner on them. And poor Detroit. They do not fare well in my power ratings, but even I was surprised to chalk them up for only two wins when I looked at their schedule (I had assumed it would be 5 or 6).

The Giants will start the season strong, quickly fade, and end up with five wins. Still, I was surprised my model had them with a winning record at any point, lol.

Carolina will also start strong and then fade, but much later in the season than NYG.

Minnesota, what a disappointment. Even though, I have them in the upper half of my power rankings (just barely), I think thhey still end up with a losing record.

I am happy to offer my opinion on any other team anybody is interested in discussing.

And Pats fans, cool those homer fires, lol. I have them tied with the Chiefs for the best record in football (13 wins). But you're not being objective in your view of Brady. He will have some great moments this year. But he is going to have some stinkers too. Just be thankful the AFC east is terrible.

 

Pool fun!

 

AFC East a lot better than last year, As far as Brady you are starting to sound like Max Kellerman, lol, he is not falling of the cliff yet.

 

Injuries will determine a lot , Mahomes and Mayfield should not scramble as much as they do, REMEMBER ,I said it when you did your football gambling ,I dont wan't to sound like a MMQB.

 

As an aside, I find it interesting that Circa will let you play both sides of the futures bets. For example, you can bet on a team to win the Super Bowl; you can also bet on a team to not win the Super Bowl. Patriots are +635 yes, -1060 no. By contrast, Dolphins are +50000 yes, -999999 no. Sorry, Miami.

 

I think there’s some decent value in the Steelers on season total over and SB champ odds. The fact that the Browns are bigger favorites in the SB win prop and have a higher season total win bet is crazy.

 

Just throwing this out there and its percentage varies year to year, but for Week 1 I tend to fade first year coaches. Last year that angle went 7-0. This could be another good year for that, especially with new coaches for bad teams such as AZ, Cincy, Tampa and Miami. I'm definitely parlaying those four, but I could also make a case for Green Bay losing to Chicago, NY Jets losing to Buffalo, Denver losing to Oakland and the Browns losing to Tennessee.

 

Good stuff so far, keep it up!

 

So far Pats fans are by far biggest homers ITT. Feel free to fade any of there advice.

 

AFC South regressed. You may be right about the Texans, but they seem to be a bit of a trashy pick this year.

 

Yeah, someone has to win the division. But no model I ran had them more than 9 wins. And some of them had them at 8

 

OK, quick update befoore I go to sleep. The evening did not go as planned.

I left the pool shortly after my last update. I have been feeling poorly all day. So I decided to go ahead and run around to make my NFL bets rather than waiit til the morning (in case I feel bad). After that, I decided to stop in the high limit and chase a few hundred more dollars to reach an even number for the trip. Sigh. A couple hundred bucks turned into three hours of play. Fortunately, it worked out in the end, but that was dumb. So now I am exhausted and about to crash.

But before I do, here are my season win total bets for you to discuss or criticize:
Pats OV 11
Riaders UN 6
Eagles OV 9.5
Lions UN 7
Bucs UN 6
Falcons OV 8.5
KC OV 10
Broncos OV 7
Fins UN 5
Colts UN 7.5
Titans UN 8

I also made some college bets because I am a degenerate who knows very little about college ball. Still ....
Missouri OV 8
Clemson OV 11.5
UGA OV 10.5
UT UN 7
UCLA UN 6.5

I also made a ton of individual games bets at CG using their weekly season lines. I willl list those each week in the usual NFL betting threads

 

Woooooooo! Definitely a chance. The West division game should be a cake walk this year.