Daytona Beach poker room offers insane high hand jackpots. They also operate a room in Orange City near Orlando and tables in both rooms compete for the jackpots. Today the jackpots were $800 for the first half hour and $400 bottom half. We were on our last hand of an $800 session, the high hand posted is quad 3s, 10 kicker and this happened on my 1/2nl table. I was dealt pocket 3s in mid position. Player to my right raises to 15 preflop. I call and there is a third caller who will be last to act. Flop is 343. Bingo. Now all I care about is checking to the river hoping for a higher kicker. Well, the preflop raiser bets 30, I call and the third player shoves. All 3 9f us get it in, 2 of us all in to find player one has pocket queens, me quads and player 3 pocket 4s, giving him a boat. Only a 4 or running queens can beat me and the whole table is pulling for a big card. Turn is a 6, river a king and I scoop up the pot and 800 plus. Sweet.
cool, my local room every tuesday for a while did high hand tuesday every hour for 1500 bucks, 2-11 at night. Was playing when a lady got a queen high straight flush with about 50 minutes to go, guy offered to buy her out for 800, she said no, and lost to a royal flush with 2 minutes left on the countdown
I would have held my ground with a queen high sf. That had to hurt. I guess I ruined the day for the guy with 333310
Why would you refuse the guaranteed cash just to chase 400 dollars extra? Hell, I'd take half the cash. Money now is always better than probably money in the future... (that's why I prefer salaries over bonuses.
exactly what i said, its guaranteed money. one hand ties you and two beat you. I wouldve taken it no looking back. Also, salary is always better than any forecasted bonuses that may never come!
Awesome win @Scotch12rox thanks for sharing! For the guys saying they would have taken the payout, I'm pretty sure the EV was higher for not taking the payout. The odds of a queen high straight flush getting beat or even tied are minuscule given the size of the room, number of hands, and time left I believe.
But what are the odds of a royal flush happening within that time frame with that many tables/players and time remaining? Pretty low I'd wager.
When the odds are low, I've found that is when the probability is high. I know that sounds like an oxy moron, but when it comes to gambling, that always seems to be the case (at least for me). Think about it, how many times have you seen a board full of black on roulette and yet it still hits black 3-4 more times after that. Yes, the odds reset with every spin, but c'mon. So, I'd rather take the guarantee. Plus, you're thinking mathematically. We're flawed creatures, so we take what we think will net us out better.
I would respectfully disagree that this is not true in poker or in business for that matter. It's a function of time and risk. She figured the $700 premium ($1500-$800) on future money was worth the time and the risk. Considering that we are talking about 50 minutes and the fact that only 8 out of 2,598,960 possible hands could beat her, she was almost certainly correct. Sometimes you can be right and still lose. Winning poker players know that and work hard to not let bad beats affect their play. The law of large numbers is absolutely fundamental in gambling.
Around 5.03%-10.63% of the time on double zero if I'm figuring correctly. I think people put more weight on unlikely events because the rarity of them makes them more memorable in the first place. I can't remember all the times I've seen a P.S.O. at craps but I can recount nearly EVERY hour long roll I've ever been on, where it happened, and roughly how much I made. We are indeed flawed creatures but if you let the math into your life, you will overcome those flaws and make decisions with better information. Thinking mathematically IS the path to netting out better.
To be fair, I was speaking more to what works for me and my psychology. If we all thought alike, well things would be rather boring. As alluded to before, mathematically speaking, my logic is horribly flawed. But, when gambling, I generally act on impulse. Bad habit I suppose. Either way, thanks for keeping us honest