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Thoughts on the play? It worked...

Discussion in 'The Poker Room' started by TRN, May 30, 2017.

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  1. bigalbr

    bigalbr VIP Whale

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    I just ran some numbers and was shocked at how bad they actually were. I expected this to be a play that I knew was wrong, but that you could somehow do some mental gymnastics with implied odds and conclude that it was correct. Looking at it, I just don't see how you can make that case.

    In this case, we won the max. $400. It cost us $22 VPIP. So we got paid about 18:1 on our voluntary bets before we turned the nuts. Villain is very likely drawing dead at this point unless we think he has a set. I'm discounting a set here because I think it's an unlikely holding compared to his range and our outs are clean regardless of whether he's holding a pair or set.

    The problem is that we are about 1:50 to make our straight by the turn. There's really no way to outplay that deficit. We got a near perfect board for our holding and can't make enough to justify the play. Villain is going to win most of the time when we don't flop a monster. I don't think we win his stack if we flop trips. I think we lose a lot when we make a pair and continue past the flop.
     
  2. MiamiDave

    MiamiDave You Can't Handle the Truth

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    So bigalbr, you defend your BB against a relatively small raise with.... top 10% hands only? Your next 10% or hands would be playing RIO hands OOP. Good luck not getting crushed on those in the long term...

    Any chance you'll be in Vegas at the end of June? I'd love to play on your table.
     
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  3. meyers67

    meyers67 VIP Whale

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    I think the pre-flop call wasn't very good. That seems to be a consensus on this thread.

    I actually think the flop call was poor as well. You don't have the implied odds and you're out of position. I've had so many hands like this where I get my card on the turn, and I can't get another dollar from the villain because he checks behind on the turn and folds to my river bet.

    Give up your $3 and move on.
     
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  4. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 I Run the Vegas Hotdog Stand

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    If I was in my right mind and playing it like I'd like a higher-stakes game or tournament I probably don't call a 3.3x raise pre-flop with those 2 rags. I figured we'd get to this point in the thread where it was theory vs. beer. If you've played 1/2 or 1/3 anywhere, you probably realize everyone plays that kind of crap. You can take two approaches... tighten up and play premium hands (and when you're in the hand, everyone knows what you're holding), or loosen up and go with the speed of traffic, play a polarized range of strong and weak hands, adjust to your opponents, and get used to playing more post-flop.
     
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  5. meyers67

    meyers67 VIP Whale

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    I agree with what you said 100%. I'd just play the crap in position - it gives you more ways to win.
     
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  6. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    On the beer vs play argument, I am fine with that. But regardless of how the decision was made, it is still fun and useful to analyze the decision outside that context. By all means, call preflop because cheap drunk and fun. Its still worth thinking out "would this be a good call without those factors".

    I don't agree there. If you call the flop, there is 51 in the pot. If you assume you never win the pot unless you turn the straight, you only need to assume you'll win 35 more to have the implied odds.

    Given the history and image of these two players, that seems pretty likely. Even if turn goes check check, it is easy to get a river call. The straight will be about as disguised as it can be.

    And if we think villain will really shut down often on the turn, that could also give us another card to draw to when we don't get there. And this is before any consideration that villain could be c-betting air, and you could possibly steal on the river.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2017
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  7. tipdrill

    tipdrill Low-Roller

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    Result is obv good.
    I'm firing on that flop 1/3 or 1/2 pot and prepared to call a 3bet.

    For the turn:
    If he just calls the turn: I bet 1/2 pot
    If he 3bets: I check to show weakness, and hopefully induce another bet.

    River:
    Those size stacks I'm pretty sure its getting AI in any scenario.
     
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