1/2 Bally's Poker Room WSOP

Scenario.

1/2 Bally's Las Vegas.

I normally don't play 1/2 as much but I was here playing a marathon session, I started at 1 AM and it is now 10 AM the next day. I was in the game for $900. I stacked off my first buy in with 88 on a 567 board vs two pair on a Q turn. Then got top set stacked off to a straight.

So at this point my stack was around $650 when this hand comes up.

The game dynamics obviously change significantly for this duration but generally the game is pretty tight so my VPIP is probably around 60 and I open raise pretty much everything in position with suited cards and broadway cards and pp.

V has about $600 as well. I think hes a local reg, maybe mid 60's. He over values top pair. He barrelled twice with A8 on a A94K board, then check called an all in on a river 3. Barrelled meaning large over bets.

So I would imagine top pair is the nuts but I also can see him calling with over cards on a low flop.

On to the hand.

I raise $10 my fixed opening raise size with no limpers HJ with QT off.

V is in the BB and calls.

Heads up

Pot $21

Flop
J54.

BB leads $20. I call thinking I can catch some equity with 9, K, Q, A. Plus he seems to over bet pots so I decide to float in position .

$61

Turn Q

BB checks, I lead out $35 and he calls.

$131

River T

He checks and i lead out $55 where in insta jams all in.

Pot $186

My first thought is check raise river at 1/2? How often is this a bluff. But I maybe just maybe see I guess he could have AK. I never see 98. So at best he has JT, worst he has QJ.

Are you calling it off or folding.

 

Probably folding when that deep even though he doesn't have a lot of combos to beat you with. I just don't see what you can be beating. AK may not be in his range because if he put you on AJ or AQ then he would be folding that turn with 4 outs. Any decent player with AA or KK is going to check/call your river bet, he has no reason to jam. It's a pretty wet board to be bluffing. I think he's on JJ, 55, 44, or QJ. You didn't mention whether the Q on the turn made one or even two flush draws, though.

 

Sorry board was complete rainbow

 

More info on villain would help.

Have you seen him slow play strong aces pre before? Especially OOP? AK should be 3 betting you. It is also a slightly less likely donk bet, and turn call.

Have you seen him run any big bluffs? This is a massive overbet at the end, and at these limits, I think you do well assuming its never a bluff until you've seen a villain capable of it.

It is a weird spot because with what you've suggested about him overvaluing hands, JT is the hand that makes the most sense for those 3 streets of action. And against a known better player who will run big bluffs, an adventure with 67 suited, or turning AJ into a bluff to scare off AQ or KQ would be possible.

But I'm not sure you really know villain enough to give him credit for those.

I mean, any hand beating you (except maybe TT) would be a bit of a bizarre line. QJ, 44, and 55 donking pot size, then check calling small turn? k9, 89 getting here at all?

But the odds are not great, and you are playing for 300BB stacks. So if I haven't seen villain overbet value shove light or run big bluffs on the river, I simply can't see a call. Do some talking, tank it out, try to goad him into a show. But ultimately I think you fold.

It feels like you are telling us the story because he had JT, but in the moment, I fold this I think.


Also, I don't think I call pot size on the flop against someone who barrels pot sized with top pair on the hope of picking up draws or an overpair with a bad kicker. Unless he donk bet bluffs a lot, I just let it go.

When you do get to the turn and river, against this villain suddenly checking, I'd probably bet bigger. Which sadly means I'd likely face a sicker decision if he shoved, as the odds would be better, and a bluff would be even less likely. But on the plus side a bigger size might lead him to call down that JT too.

 

I agree with that part for sure. You basically admitted he gets in bed with top pair and never lets go. You're calling a pot-sized flop hoping a Q hits and it's enough or that you get runner-runner 2p/3oak or a back-door straight? I could see calling the flop if you think you can push the guy around but your OP described him as that not being likely.

As far as the set play is concerned, I could see a villain getting fancy here with a set (even going so far to checking the river and possibly losing a value bet), particularly if you're playing as loosely as your VPIP indicates. At this level of stakes I see the fancier plays happening more and more often, and they're usually proud of their poorly played winning hand even when they accidently give up tons of value by out-thinking themselves.

By the way, are you sure your VPIP was 60? That's like ridiculously high in a full ring live game. Like spewy-high, even for a LAG.

 

More Villain.

He probably sat down an 1hr ago. Seems like a player who played stud, draw games from way back in the day. Probably mid 60's. I think but not sure a Vegas local. I asked him if he was, he said he wasn't but the dealers knew him and he had a Diamond total Rewards card.

I don't think he slow plays Aces but he has never shown down AA or AK.

No, I haven't seen him run any bluffs.

Yes, I agree, JT make the most sense in his line that he took.

I also discounts sets on the flop as well because, I don't think he would have checked back them on the turn nor the river. I could be wrong but based on how he played I do.

I would agree that floating the flop was questionable or more likely bad but I had a few reasons. This villain seemed to over value top pair top hands and over bet the pot. I have seen him bet 1.5x pot on several occasions where people would fold. I had position and felt he would be willing to overvalue hands if I connect well flops. Also, he seemed a bit stationy, in that he was more willing to call then fold.

On that A8 hand where he barreled two streets and check the river, his opponent was bluffing and he was willing to stack off with A8. So that is why I floated and we were pretty deep.

My VPIP was probably 60 for three reasons. 1), All my player to my left were super tight OMC. 2) I was getting decent broadway, suited connector cards. 3) I live and play in LA. The drop in LA is so high, I can not ever play this style. Vegas rake is so cheap, I feel like the cage is off when I am here.

You guys are right though, the last few times I have played 1/2 in Vegas, check raise river bets are becoming more common. I am definitely more aware of them now.

I didn't tank for a while and tried to talk to him. He seemed somewhat relaxed but concerned. I asked him will you show if I fold and he said no. I never show anymore. I came to the conclusion of talking to him that he did not have AK but either QJ, JT.

 

That is just it though, you didn't connect that flop at all.

You only want to float in that spot against a guy who will fold his jack to overcards on the turn. Not a station. Your Q is a mediocre out, and A,K, or 9 give you some river outs, but enough that you need to be able to semi bluff and push him off anything weaker than 2 pair at a minimum.

And FWIW 2/3 of the time the turn will brick, this villain will likely barrel and you'll fold. Do you really think you can win enough off of bluffs and queens to make up for that?

There is no run of cards good enough to play 60 percent of hands over 9 hours. That can't be right. How much of that 60% were raises? Because if you are open raising 60%, you should be drowning in 3 bets, and anyone without the stones to do it should have left the game grumbling by now.

 

My thoughts -

- on the flop, its either either fold or even a raise would be ok (even with air if you think you can take it down later). Just calling isn't something I'd do.

- You tried to make a thin value bet on the river and he has a hand. Fold as quickly as you can.