In honor of TRN ... how would you play it?

You are misusing the idea of pot control here btw. Pot control is for when you have a medium strength hand vs. their range. we don't pot control when we beat 80%+ of their calling range and that calling range is dead to us but for 3 outs.

 

When there's a new player I have no read on, I am going to play a little safer, a little more by the % than by the player/read. The trips are a pretty strong flop. Yes a few hands could beat it... but unless I have a read that this guy an absolute nit, or a loose crazy canon, I am going to play.

 

I'm not talking about how I would play 87 when I say bet hard. 87 is a potential disaster hand here where you have the potential to lose it all a good % of the time. Absolutely I would slow it down here.

 

I am not saying the JJ, J8 are as likely. But your line is a $30 win most of the time, and those boats cut into the rare amount of the time you get action.

You are saying 40 combos of other 8, but how many of those 40 combos would have folded pre flop? Overall we are talking 18.4 % chance that one of 4 other random hands contains an 8, and then you need to massively discount for most of the 8's, especially from the initial limper. Very liberally we'll call it all 7-8. all 8-9, and 8-10 suited. So we are talking a quarter of that 18%. So this is in the neighbourhood of 95% win $30 (this is using your own reasoning above that no one else is calling the overbet anyway), 4-4.5% bigger win (less big than you think when your stack is upper bound but some of the limpers could be on shorter stacks, and a chop about a quarter of the time.

And I am saying overall, I am having trouble seeing that as higher EV than a smaller bet that could get calls, and will still take most of the stack of a weaker 8, if not all.

Not really. First, you might assume you beat 80% of the range when a scare card comes on the turn, but a LOT calling range doesn't call another bet anyway.

Second, if you think 80+% of the calling range is dead even with a spade ,Q or 7 hitting, explain again while a smaller flop bet that gets called in that range is a bad thing?

 

Curious if you would have raised or just called the initial overbet with the initial min raiser still to act.

 

Your first point is a reason to bet larger on the flop if you have big trips, not smaller. If they are only calling one street - get as much as you can on that street!

The average player with an 8 is calling a turn bet if a Q or a 7 hits. They have trips.

A lot of flush draws are folding a paired flop. If they are stupid enough to continue at the price I am setting, it's going to be high. I'm not betting $20, getting two callers, then peeing my pants when the turn makes a flush. As you note, not only can you be behind now, but it can kill your action.

Why do you want to give people good odds to call you with hands that can catch you when you still have 90% of your stack behind you? If they are going to chase with draws, let them pay a silly price

 

Except that of course there is a sliding scale to call. A flush draw that thinks it is against trips or less needs 4-1 on a call. They probably would not credit a lot of implied odds given the risk they are dead to a boat and the redraws.

If you bet $25, you are giving them 2-1. Some players will stretch for that call. None of them will ever call your massive overbet.

So the calling 1 street gets less likely the more value you try to extract.

Plus, with a smaller size, it is not only the draws you potentially price in. With a bet in standard range, opening that early on a paired board could pull a call from a jack, especially if you have a balanced or aggressive table image. Maybe even a mid pocket pair (we'll assume on that action that no one is slow playing a big pocket). Simply a look up call in position to see if you'll slow on the turn. If someone reads you as just taking a stab at it, they could even call to float with air.

And none of those hands mess with the overbet, because they don't want to be in a pot for their stack. So in trying to get max value from one caller you actually do really narrow the range of flop calls you can get. All for that 4 percenter with the case 8.

Getting 2 callers is actually not that bad at all. You have to sweat the turn scare card a bit more, but they don't know what each other has, and have to sweat you AND one another even if they hit. As far as they know, they are up against 2 players with trips or trips and a boat. Plus the times they will be chasing the same draw, so you got twice the calling for one set of outs. Remember how the overbet was to make sure all the money gets in? If one of the 2 callers is a worse 8, your smaller bet still sizes up the pot for a bigger turn so you can stack off that 8. And you get all that for taking on a little risk that they hit and you don't improve, which isn't even necessarily full stack risk because a flush still needs to be careful.

As you note, you don't really have to slow down much for Q or 7 offsuit, that player would have had to call a longer odds draw, while worrying about both a boat and a potential flush even if he gets home. So a 9-10 (non suited) caller is far less likely, and even a 9-10 suited is likely to tread lightly if he hits the straight.

As tackled above, you don't have to overbet to not give them good odds.

 

Here's the fundamental disconnect. Why are you so focused on getting $25 from a flush draw or $15 from a jack instead of $300 from the other 8?

I'm not trying to get calls from flush draws. I'm trying to get the stack of the other eight.

For perspective, this guy overbet the pot 1.5x and you raised into him with 87. Do you really think the average V can fold 8s here?

 

Its not a disconnect. I addressed it. You are trying to win a stack that is in the hand somewhere around 5% of the time, where you'll chop a quarter of the pots and lose about 11% of them with a boat catching up without you recatching. That doesn't actually come out to a huge long run payoff on the move if you fold every other hand out. Even if you assume a limp and min raise call from any position with any K8, Q8s, 10 8s, any 98, any 78, and 8-6 suited, that is 7% of the time.

You keep harping on it like it is in dispute. In the above, I generously assume your strategy will always get the stacks in regardless of cards to come, and always fold out everyone else.

But its not like that is a magical accomplishment. You would have to actually make a concerted effort to not get more than half the case 8's stack anyway, and any aggression on the worse 8's part or a just beat kicker and you get it all anyway. In fact, a smaller bet could even pick up a bonus of a caller who then gets squeezed out by a raise by the other 8.

In short, you are freezing out all manner of other hands you are well ahead of, many more of which could be in the hand, to win an extra 0-125 bucks on 4-7% of flops.

Your point was simple and there is no disconnect. I'm just not sold on the long term value being worth it. I think the much more frequent small gains of a smaller bet, plus the natural action of 8s vs 8s would any way pay you more in EV

 

Not reading two pages of full text when the answer is very easy..fold pre

 

This was an interesting read from different angles.
I didn't read the light print, I didn't see the suit of 88J flop, I'm thinking he has JJ or A8 when he shoves

Seeing the light print now, I'm assuming the one 8, & J were S's on the flop
So, he shoved with a S draw, only three spades on the flop and pair of J's to your trips. Weaker & drawing
He suks out on a S draw & you risked your stack on 8/7 hitting trip 8's (not a boat) with medium kicker any redraw S's from the 7?
(you didn't mention the suit)
But even so, it is a medium one if it is.
Hard to say with the trips and the shove and you have a 7 kicker
My thinking says call because I never believe any poker player...lol
What are you doing playing 8/7 os anyway? jk
So, your call was correct, he obvioously thought he was ahead
Hard to beat a player with a Horseshoe up the ol' sphincter, although he did have a lot of ouches!