Table Games you never walk away from a heater...

the subject title is a simple one, but here's what I want to know: when is it time to walk away?

My story: I'm a BJ player through and through. I've had heaters just like anyone else, Sadly, they rarely seem to last very long and thus don't create the worry of "when do you walk away". Its clear the heater is over, its time to go or more frequently, it's time to grind back the losses just sustained in the hopes some positive variance will come your way.

Yesterday, at Harrah's Lake Tahoe (my winter hang out of choice), I played my usual 1D BJ. One thing I did differently was to walk in with the strategy of going big early, and then backing down as needed. I'm comfortable with $50 action and will press up as warranted, typically walking away with a $100 HA.
Back to the story...I sat, changed $500 and played $100 right away and started winning. Good start I thought, and backed down to $50. The good cards continued to come my way, so I upped my bets and walked away +$2k after about and hour and a half of play. I was honestly a little out of sorts as I wanted to cheer on my good fortune, but the others guys at the table were just getting hammered...I was the only one getting any cars. Time to get some lunch and ponder my next move.

Typically, I have stop limits on either wins or losses. My win limit is often 2x buy-in, so yesterday was already an aberration by the time my lunch break come. Having a 4x win in a short time frame told me that I should be thankful, book the win and hang out for the next couple hours. So, back to the floor I went seeking out my former table with the plan of slow-playing the afternoon and not whittling away my wins. That table was full, and with not much else available (that was desirable), I headed for the HL thinking I would give it a whirl at $100 since I had been playing mostly that in the first session. I typically don't sit $100 tables because I like the flexibility to retreat my bets to my comfort zone, so this was an unusual play for me. In the HL, the 1D table was occupied, so I sat the 2D with a familiar dealer, changed the $2k into black chips and began with the mind set that I would min bet and stop my loss at $1k if needed. It was not. The good cards continued to come my way, and even through a couple swings on the table I raised up my winnings to $3k in another hour's time. It was time to color up again and consider my position.

At this point, I was candidly unsure of what to do. I was clearly on a sustained heater and it was lasting longer than I was used to. I was also being more aggressive than usual with my bets, not recklessly, but pressing them to $200 with the occasional $400. Again, for a $50 better, these are outside the norm.
My gut said walk, book the win. But i remembered the line "never walk on a heater" and it was clear that things were going my way that day.

I sat for a third session, this time back on the floor at my preferred 1D table and played. The cards were mixed, and I was spinning my wheels a bit. So, I announced that I would be leaving shortly (my wife was done skiing) and started throwing out some larger than usual bets...$250, $400, $500 to test the heater. Won some, lost some. Nothing consistent. I did one more purple chip bet, lost and colored up at $2k....gave $1k winnings back to the house.

i'm pleased to have walked with a larger than normal win, but am still perplexed by the question of "how do you know when it time time to leave a heater"?

 

You know it's time when you say you should have walked away 10 minutes ago.

I've never heard of anyone leaving when their chip stack the highest it's been all session. Don't we always leave after a lost hand or roll to bitter us?

 

You played it exactly as I would have

 

I think you played well actually. You limited your losses and cashed in at times many would see a variance turn and give it all back. You stayed ahead. A heater to me is when you get a string of hands or rolls literally one after the other. To walk away from that would be foolish. To walk when you think the hands or rolls are done...that's smart play.

You were out of your comfort zone and wrote about it well. You also must have played consistently. Hats off to you again. The only thing I would add would be to continue limiting your potential losses, but never to limit your winnings. If you find yourself in a heater and you are winning, then keep pressing and keep taking the money. If you are a blackjack player then having a chance to split 8s against dealers 6, and having to split 8s three times in a row will leave you with multiple hands and decisions. As a player, this is a great opportunity. Some however worry about this position and don't play/bet it well for fear of losing. Recognizing opportunity is one of our few moments where we can beat the house. When you have that
Moment, you are truly playing. When you know you are done and the hands turn against you, then you should know you are done and be prepared to walk away.

 

Banner day in Deanland.

It's hard to know when to quit. I think you did the right thing, 'cause we've all been $X up and walked out $.5X and thought "Man, I shouldda...".
You just never know...which is probably why they call it gamblin'.

 

Said perfectly!

 

When to walk away from a heater? When you hit your floor.

I don't set a win limit. But I set, and hopefully reset, a floor limit. For example, if I'm up $250, I may say I will walk if I fall to $200. Then if the $250 goes over $3-500 I don't go below $3-500. So I always have the possibility of going jackpot, but not losing more than $100 in the expected fall.

 

The trick to heaters or winning streaks is that you can't predict when they will start and you can't predict when they will end. Having a loss limit or a win limit is good. But even better if you have a flexible limit that will allow you to ride a streak as long as it lasts while locking away your win.

Simple example is $100 buy-in. Win limit is $50, loss limit is -$50. If it goes badly you walk away when you lost $50. If it goes badly then turns around a bit, but it's a slow crawl to a $50 win, then walk away with that win. But if you are having a heater and the wins are coming your way like it did for the OP, then you slowly adjust your win limit upward. So lets say you are up $100 and so you have $200, now leaving with $150 is your "loss limit", though it's not really a loss because it is still a net win, but now you have a clear amount that you are willing to give back in hopes that the heater continues. With every big jump you set a new loss limit that locks in your previous wins.

Takes a lot of discipline, but at least you know you're limiting your losses and not your wins!

 

Ditto to what Terry Benedict said. I don't set win limits but I do have an increasing loss limit if i am winning.

 

I agree with Terry. I set floors depending on how I'm doing. I don't see the sense in having a win limit. Why limit your winnings? But you should always keep your floor in mind ahttps://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/index.php?posts/1425985/nd adjust it as you go. So if I'm a couple 2 Grand my floor might be 1500-1800 depending on how I'm betting. So If I drop down to that I walk away.

 

I will leave when the table gets cold. As long as I'm winning I'm sticking around.

 

I probably would've played it like you did. It took me awhile to learn this. I'll never forget one time I had a monster 45 minute roll in craps and half the table colored up after I sevened. The dealer said something like "you can tell these guys are all seasoned players - they're walking with profits"

I was convinced the hot table would continue but alas it did not. And that's when I understood to be aware of when it's time to color and walk.

If I am up like you were and want to keep playing I'll usually keep some in reserve and play with some of the profits. If I blow it I walk away and still have some left.

Better to walk away with some than go bust.

Of course I type this sober and not in the moment lol - sometimes I will hang on too long and other times I'll chase a bad session.

 

Its easy to set a loss limit, but hard to do when its a heater.
I left a table as my wife and I head to the room to shower, clearup and get ready to head back out.
Walk past the about 45 minutes later and see the same group of people.
"How has the table been?"
"Its still smoking."

 

Agree with this when playing BJ.It is often I should not have played the last 2-3 hands.
I often walk from a craps table after a big hand and ultimate seven out when the rack is the most full.It is very common at dice to see piles of chips stacked on the table waiting for a color up when they are at the max.

 

Yeah every real craps heater I've ever seen pretty much the entire table clears out afterwards.

 

I also agree with this. One great thing about table games in general is the chips are a great bankroll management tool. You can actually touch your winnings, and that makes it way more real than some credits on a screen. The chip tray in craps makes it even better. I utilize the tray for my "banking" and my pockets for locking it away. I stick with a sliding loss number, but if I go on a nice run I'll color up, leave a few rounds of bets on the table/tray, and deposit winnings right into my pocket.

I also agree with cjcjcj in that you know you should leave when you know you should've already left, haha.

 

Reminds me of the stock market a few years back and now.
Who is going to be the first and jump ship?

 

In the past, I've left a blackjack table immediately after winning a hand with a bunch of splits and doubles. I figure there's no way to top winning a four-bet hand.

I still haven't figured out how to leave a craps table on a high note. It's always a seven out, give a little bit back.

 

Try this next time:
Get your numbers pressed up to your usual "max", take a total of two "same bet" payouts, then take all of your bets down (except the line & your odds).
Wait for the point or the 7. Hit the point? Play the bet-money & winnings on the next roll... nothing else. When the 7-out eventually happens? Color out & go.

 

I Have never understood the logic of setting a win limit. Unless you have a phobia about owning a casino, this does not make sense to me.