Video Poker What are the odds of this crazy draw?!??

And I don't just mean the 5/5 flushes, i mean the 4/5 ace of hearts!

 

47 cards left in the deck, 1 is the ace of hearts, run it 5 times

So 4 ace of hearts is

1/47 * 1/47 * 1/47 * 1/47 = 0.0000204931428919226%

4 ace of hearts + 1 flush is

1/47 * 1/47 * 1/47 * 1/47 * 9/47 = 0.0000039242188516448%

5 flushes is

9/47 * 9/47 * 9/47 * 9/47 * 9.47 = 0.0257%


You're meant to use that incredible drawing power when you have 4 to a royal ....

 

Yeah I got about 1 in 5 million of 4 ace hearts, but that calc is same as mine actually calc odds of 4/4 ace hearts not 4/5 right?

 

edit: nm

 

Hey neither of us is teaching math class lol. I'm impressed with anyone who knows the 1/47*1/47.....

 

edit: nm

 

Nope im math failing ... It does matter. Damn you beejay!

1/47^4*46/47 * 4 + 1/47^4

That is odds of (where B means blank and ? is anything)

BAAAA +
ABAAA +
AABAA +
AAABA +
AAAA?

So it includes odds of all being aces. Multiply by 46/47 if 5 being aces doesnt count.


Final answer. For now

 

reminds me a bit of my pic when I drew one card and hit 3 strait flushes out of 5...

 

I'm confused about your choice of hold cards. You were dealt 342AK all hearts. You chose to hold 342K which seems incorrect. Shouldn't you have held 324A so that you had a possibility of one (or more) straight flush(es)?

 

What you talkin bout Willis!?!?

 

Sorry, nevermind... I was confused because the first, larger graphic you posted showed "HELD" under the 3, 4, 2, and K (but not "HELD" under the A). I am not familiar with your trainer app and didn't understand that the left-hand side was your originally dealt cards.

Disregard...

 

There is no better service one can provide than giving the "whatchu talking bout Willis" opening.

 

This is actually an application of the "multinomial distribution".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinomial_distribution

A: Probability of hitting repeated flush card...1/47

B: Probability of hitting non-repeated flush card...8/47

C: Probability of missing flush...38/47

Probability of 5 flushes with 4 flushes drawing the Ace...

P(A=4; B=1; C=0) = 5!/4!/1!/0! x (1/47)^4 x (8/47)^1 x (38/47)^0 = 5 x (1/47)^4 x 8/47 x 1 = 40 / 47^5 = 1 in 5733625.175

But I would argue that you make this thread no matter what if you hit all 5 flushes with 4 being the same card of any rank. Therefore, that would increase the overall probability by nine, or 1 in 637,039, which is quite close to the dealt royal probability (1 in 649,740) . Save the dealt royal for the casino, imo.

 

i wouldnt have made it with 5s.....cause 5's suck balls.

thanks for the legit explanation.....once my wife replaces the cleaning ladies with an actuary, I'll know my days are numbered.

 

I've also noticed multiplay STP hands where there a lot of identical cards in identical positions on the various drawn hands.

It's probably just the human tendiency to find patterns even when things are just random; but I still sometimes wonder if maybe their random number generator is not quite right.

 

Talk about weird coincidental patterns, I had these two draws at two different casinos 9 months apart:

 

Here ya there. 5s hate me. Better than Aces or Deuces hating me though...:evillaugh

It's supposed to happen occasionally when things are random. A couple of years ago when I was not entirely focused on my own machine, I remember my neighbor converted quads from trips on 3 of 3 lines of nickels on an STP game (probability = (2/47)^3 = 1 in 12,978. What bothered me the most was...no picture...no self-muttered "wow"...no pause in play. He just acted like it was another hand. If I ever acted like that...someone please drag me to GA...and I don't mean Georgia.

 

About the same as me picking up the girl in the Direct TV ads. You know, then ones with the horse.