NFL Week Four Bets

So a lot changed this past week in my power ratings. Three games makes it easier to start getting a real handle on a team strengths and weaknesses. So here are my top five and bottom five as of now:

*Top Five: Buffalo, Arizona, Rams, Cleveland, Tampa
*Bottom Five: Detroit, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Washington, Indy

Couple observations. First, I feel bad for Indy. I predicted back in the summer that they would have a rough start to the season. So their record does not surprise me. But the way they have played, especially on defense, has been surprising. The crazy thing is that their division is so bad that they could pull it together and go on a run to the playoffs. The Titans aren't as good as I thought before the season began, so there is still hope if you're a Colts fan. But right now, they are playing poorly. Washington is also a little surprising to me. They really should be winless. Granted, they played two tough teams (and got lucky against a bad team). But their defense, which should have been fantastic this season, has played terribly. Who played is no excuse. The Bills first two opponents limited Josh Allen but DC rolled over against him. And they really couldn't slow down the Giants, who somehow could barely score against Atlanta.

For the top teams, Buffalo has improved each week and Allen, at least this week, looked like the player from last season. If he keeps playing like that, they are likely to stay at the top.

No bets for the week yet. There are a few games I am looking at. For the early game, I think the Bengals win by a TD, but that's a decently sharp line. instead, I like the pop for Burrow to throw over 1.5 TDs. The Jags have been terrible in pass defense the first three weeks. Also, during the second half last night, I placed a wager on Dallas to win the NFC East at -180. Don't love that line, but if they stay healthy, who is going to beat them? They already completed two of the toughest games on their schedule, should win two of their next three, then have a tough road game but its after a bye week, and I expect them to win four of their remaining five division games. That should get them to at least nine wins. I don't see another winning record team in that division

 

I kind of wish I would take the time to watch as much football (pro and college) as I used to, so maybe I'm missing something....but I can't imagine there are two worse teams than the Jets and the Giants.

I can't say one nice thing about either team and can't imagine they will win more than 6 games combined.

Good luck this week, good people.

 

They're both awful and I considered them for my bottom five (both are on the cusp), but here is my reasoning.

First off, I don't think there is really any question Detroit, Atlanta, and Jacksonville are the three worst teams in the league. Even with Atlanta beating NYG, the Giants suffered some bad luck in that game. Statistically, those are the three worst teams in the league thus far. So it really comes down to the NY teams, Indy, and DC for the final two spots in my bottom five. The Jets have actually played better defense than the Colts and DC so far (which kind of stunning). In the Pats game, the turnovers left the opponent with a lot of short fields to score. That's not the defense's fault. It has been in some tough spots. The Jets defense has been around the league average. Their offense is woeful, but still came back to make the game against Carolina close. If they cut down on turnovers (which tends to be a random stat), they would rate higher. As for the Giants, I wrote a bit about this team last week. They are just a couple plays form being 2 and 1. Their offense is actually decent, probably league average (Indy and DC are not). And their defense has been poor, but actually still a little better than Indy and DC. Indy and DC have played a slightly tougher schedule, but their respective defenses (which are supposed to be the strong unit of those teams) just hasn't played well at all.

 

Not sure about Detroit, they did get screwed by the refs on Sunday with that delay of game non call.

 

I agree they got screwed by a bad call. But they hadn't played well to that point (nor had Baltimore). They had less than 300 yards of total offense against a defense that has played below average in its other games this season. I don't think getting screwed on that one play makes a bad team a good one. A good team wouldn't have given up that crazy long completion to Watkins in the first place.

I don't think this is exactly breaking news, but the Lions can't throw the ball downfield. That kind of play limits them significantly. They are another team I can see crawling out of the basement as the season moves along (I have less hope for Atlanta or Jacksonville), but they just aren't there yet

 

Jags are worse than the Giants by a lot. I don't think it's remotely close. The D, the impressive ability to make turnovers, etc.

I would guess that oddmakers would make the Giants a 3-4 point fave over the lions, 4-5 over the Lions, and something comical over the Jags and Jets. Also, the Tyrod-less Texans are just sad. They'd be a dog to the Giants for sure. They weren't bottom 5 on paper YTD because their O looked good with him, but, man, they're going to get starched this week.

 

Hollywood brown dropped two open TDs that hit him in the hands. The Lions deserved to lose that game by a lot. They cannot defend the pass at all. Swift and Hockenson are interesting on O, though, and they are scheming well for Goff. They're going to steal a game or two.

They at least look like they're trying.

 

Don't disagree Like I said, Baltimore played poorly too. And the Lions are actually playing better than I thought they would before the season began. I still like my under wager on them, but they will win a few games. For now they are in my doghouse, but they will get better as the season goes on

 

The Lions will win this Sunday,

 

On paper, I like the Bears. But after their performance last week, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Lions won. At least they know who their QB is going to be

 

As a Bear fan, it probably won't matter who they start. The offensive line is Brutal, along with the play calling!!

 

OK, here was what I have currently wagered as of today:

*Laying Denver
*Taking Philly
*A five leg moneyline parlay of a bunch of favs (the teams you would expect)
*Two prop bets: Burrow over 1.5 touchdowns tonight and Tampa first team to 20 on Sunday night
*And finally, one big moneyline: Tampa. I think Tampa wins by 4 to 7 points. The Pats defense has looked good, but not great against lesser competition. I see Tampa getting out ahead early and the Pats offense is not designed to play from behind and score on big plays. I could see them closing the gap late, which is why I am staying away form the straight bet. plus, I will be on the plane home from Vegas while the game is being played, so a moneyline wager will hopefully be easier to enjoy while I am trapped in a seat for a few hours. But I did risk enough to get me back ahead for the year on NFL if this wager hits. So let's go Bucs! The only way i see the Pats winning is if they win the turnover battle by a margin of at least 2 and Judon (or someone else) is just living in the backfield all game. That's possible. I just don't see it as likely. Tampa was sloppy with the ball weeks 1 and 2 and let inferior teams hang with them. They were better with the ball last week, but it didn't matter against a better team. This week, they are the better team at every unit except secondary. The Pats aren't equipped to take advantage of that mismatch. So it all adds up to a Bucs win by my analysis

I am keeping my eye on laying the Jets and Cardinals as well if the line improves.

 

I find all these bets very interesting. My numbers almost exactly agree with your bets. Denver big, Philly win, Tampa by 2-7. Hope I didnt just jinx you.

 

But you have to take the rest of the story...."they are playing the Lions". Sigh...

 

I am not sue Philly wins, but I think they keep it close. I had a freebet available, so i used it on that wager just in case the Chiefs explode.

Another line that is interesting to me is taking Carolina. My model told me that betting them at +5 was a good bet. I was tempted to make it, but decided not to out of concern that my model is not accurately rating the value of the injured players on Carolina. But then after not betting it, I saw that the line has dropped this week?!?! So maybe my first instinct was right, but I am still staying away

 

Good start to the week! My moneyline parlay stays alive and I hit my Burrow prop. Not entirely sure why, but winning those props is more satisfying to me than picking the game right. I think its because good prop bets require slightly deeper analysis and depend very much on specific matchups. Anywho, hope the trend continues through Sunday night

 

I added a Rams -4 wager for the weekend. Originally, I liked the Cards and thought the line might actually move in their favor. instead, it went from 5 to 4. I did more research and learned how ineffective Nuke Hopkins has been against Ramsey. So that info combined with the line move, I decided to put a small wager on LA

 

My thoughts on the Pats: they should be 2-1 if not for that Harris fumble at the end of the Miami game. Not to mention that was Mac Jones first NFL game. Last weeks blowout was due to belichick and the team looking forward to this weeks game. They’ve also been without Trent brown - their top run/pass blocker - who is back this week. 4 weeks ago the advanced line was TB -3. Are the patriots really 4 pts worse or the bucs 4 pts better? In my opinion no. That’s an extreme swing. The line moved due to last weeks blowout and the patriots looking worse than they are due to the absence of Trent brown. I’m on Pats +7 for 8u and Pats ML 1u

 

@Joe12794 Did you get a chance to see that 97 percent of the bets are on TB?
Boy if NE covers , the sportsbook managers will be rolling in the dough in the vault just like Scrooge Mc Duck!
I'm pulling for ya.
I'm from the NE area.