Four Nights at the Mansion

Damn UK, while I love your thought process and agree with many of your outcomes, you are HATIN' on my Eagles & Jalen Hurts! What did he do to you, man? In Philly we are hopeful he will be better than your numbers predict, but I don't think we're a playoff team this year either, even in our crappy division. I think Hurts will be pretty good though, now that he has Smith & others around him to help, and hopefully an O-line that isn't injured all year again.

Very interesting take on the Texans, but it will be funny to see if it happens! I just can't bring myself to believe in the Rams like others do, and I live in LA. I don't think McVay is the incredible genius he has been portrayed as, though he is a really good coach. I agree the Raiders won't be good this year; I'm holding off on buying Eagles/Raiders tickets until the price drops further since I think both teams will be bad and they don't play until Oct 24.

Good luck on your bets! Thanks again for answering all of the follow-up questions from other VMBers! I have learned SO much just by reading everyone's questions and your patient responses! Cheers!

 

rookie WR are generally not very good is the major issue with Smith. I'm intrigued to watch the NFC East, though. I have no clue who will win.

 

Bellagio was hand-shuffling as of a month ago, at least in high limit.

 

I have no clue who will win either, just probably not my team lol anybody but the Cowboys I guess

 

One of the dealers at MGM mentioned to the supervisor that the pre-shuffle is a new process. So either its very, very new, or they are only breaking it in at MGM Grand.

 

I love talking NFL, so here are my thoughts on the Eagles:

There is a serious talent dearth on that team. I can't imagine the O line is worse than last year, but frankly, its been below average since the super bowl season. So any upgrade there helps them, but I am assuming they will still be below average. I agree with the comment that rookie WR don't usually provide a ton of help. I feel like for every Randy Moss, there are twenty Nelson Agholors (just to hit home for you, lol). I do like Smith long term for them, though. Finally, it doesn't help that Hurts is the QB. I like Hurts. I watched him throughout college at Bama. I suspect he is a good leader and works hard. But he just doesn't have the talent. He's Tebow without the odd christian-backed fan base. He's a runner with a good arm. But still a runner first. I don't usually make wagers on the assumption that a player will or will not get hurt (because that is so ahrd to predict). But doesn't that seem inevitable with Hurts? He was refusing to slide when i watched him in the first pre-season game!!! He is a big dude, but he going to take a lot of hits. Add in that they have a compotent backup that I think they aren't afriad to put in there, I could see the Eagles even replacing him late in the season if they are out of contention just to see if Minshew has any value. Hurts also doesn't check the boxes my model likes when it comes to advance stats. He is not great at hitting the throwing windows in stride. So it will be tough for his receievers to get a lot of easy YAC. Throw in that I don't rate the Eagles run defense highly and I can see other teams eating up the clock with running plays while Hurts is on the sideline. All those factors add up to an under bet for me.

As for the win total bet, let's say they split their division games (I don't think they will, but its also not unreasonable to think that). That gets them three wins. Where are they going to get four more wins? Have you looked at that home schedule (well, I assume you have as a fan, but others probably have not)? Its brutal! BRUTAL!!! Besides division games, the Eagles home games are San Fran, KC, Tampa, the Chargers, and Saints. That's a monster schedule. The road schedule is obviously easier, but road games in general are harder to win. So even if they somehow win two of those additional home games (which I think is less possible than going .500 in the division), they still would have to win two road games from the following: Atlanta, Carolina, Vegas, Detroit, Denver, and Jets. I could see them beating the Jets and Lions on the road, but the other games are asking a lot to win on the road. So for the Eagles to get to seven wins, either Hurts has to be a ton better than I am expecting or they will really have to get lucky and thread the needle on that schedule.

Its possible. I just don't think its likely (hence the bet). But hey, if it does happen, I will be happy for you and other Eagles fans (and sad for my bank account). I don't invest myself personally in team fandom anymore (other than UK basketball). So I enjoy watching the happiness it brings others. If I am wrong, I hope it works out for you

 

Just to continue the sports talk, here are two other props I studied and thought about last week while lounging at the Mansion:

*The over on Mayfield passing yards. I decided against it because the total being offered was a little higher than I expected and I think its a pretty sharp line. But for a lot of reasons, I think he will throw for more yards per game this year than last

*The over on CeeDee Lamb. All summer, I was planning on this prop being one of my bigger wagers. I think he is insanely talented and poised for a huge breakout. Plus, an swful Dallas defense makes me think they will be behind and throwing a lot this year. I only talked myself out of it after reading as much info as I could find last week about Prescott's health. He needs to be there for Lamb to get over 1000. But I don't trust what is being said about his health. I might still make a very small wager on this prop before kickoff on Thursday, but I think my funds are better wagered elsewhere

 

I very much agree with a lot of what you're saying. Info on Hurts is that he works hard & is a great leader, even as only a 2nd year player. But I am hoping he has improved since last season. I don't think it was fair to start him last year with an O-line that changed 15 out of 16 games last year. We have made some improvement there via the Draft but I think we'll see those benefits more next year than this one. Obviously I have a soft spot for some of our SB heroes, like Kelce, Graham, and Cox, so even though they are aging I still think they're great (that's why I don't bet on my own teams, just everyone else's, I know I'm biased lol). I completely agree about Hurts needing to learn to slide (Wentz didn't know how to do that either and LOOK WHAT HAPPENED in 2017). As an Eagles fan I know EXACTLY how often run QBs get hurt (McNabb, Vick), so that it my big concern too. Flacco looked terrible in the presason though so I like the Minshew grab, plus he totally fits in with Philly fans so at least if they suck it will be entertaining. You just had to bring up Agholor didn't you? Everyone is forgetting about Reagor so I hope he shows up this year and kills it. It is more likely Smith will develop and be better long-term rather than immediately getting 100 yards/game, but it's the most hopeful week of the year so here I am Plus we have the softest schedule in the NFL for receivers so that will help a little maybe? haha

I always assume we split division games. We're not the Patriots of the Tom Brady era with a guaranteed 6 wins each season. But I think the Chargers & Saints will be closer games than expected (thanks Drew! see ya in the booth!) at home, and Vegas, Detroit, and the Jets are wins on the road. But again, it's the most hopeful week of the year! There's a reason why even though Eagles/Raiders tickets have dropped from $540 to $300 each I haven't snagged them yet. I'm guessing by the time that game roles around I can get them for closer to $140/each. I love bargain hunting game tickets. A few years ago before the Rams were good we went to their season-opener at the Coliseum against the Colts because the night before the game I scored 2 tickets for $4 total. Not bad seats either!

Speaking of the Colts, my BF is a Colts fan, so despite losing Wentz (I don't think we should have gotten rid of Wentz AND Doug but that's a whole 'nother post) I will still be seeing him on my TV screen every Sunday. I hope he has a great season, I think he has it in him, especially with Reich as his coach again, but he's got to be able to stay healthy which looks increasingly less likely so who knows. The Titans look to be great competition for that Division though.

 

Wow what an awesome TR! I think I played BJ in the mansion room once early on in the pandemic, there literally wasn’t any 3/2 BJ going on MGM’s floor. It was an early afternoon midweek and the table minimum was $100, could this have been right, being in the mansion casino? Just wondering what the BJ minimums are now after vegas getting back to ‘normal’? (I play more than that most of the time but like starting lower then adjusting my bets as I go along) I just remember walking in and not paying any attention other than to the ONE BJ table going lol. I never show these TR’s to my wife, she doesn’t care, but I need to show her this one, it’s that awesome!! Thanks…

 

The only time I glanced at a BJ table on the main floor was on Monday. The minimum was $25, but I didn't look long enough to even know what the table rules were

 

I don't really disagree with anything you're saying. I think its a bit hopeful, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they win those other games (except the Chargers; I think they primed for a monster season).

As for the Colts, they have been so difficult to evaluate this summer. In my power ratings, I have placed them as high as the top eight and as low as the bottom third, just based on injuries, news, and information I gathered. I ended up rating them in the middle of the pack (just a little lower than the Titans). I think the Colts will start extremely slow (really difficult schedule for the first month) but fight their way back to 8 or 9 wins. I have Titans, though, at 11 wins, keeping the Colts out of the playoffs. Each year there are a couple teams that missed the playoffs the year before but then make it the next season. The Colts and Steelers are the two AFC teams I feel mildly confident will miss out after being in the playoffs last year

 

Was wondering about the mansion casino but thanks

 

Sorry. I reported that info earlier in the report, so I assumed you were asking about the main casino. Mansion minimums on BJ were $200 to $500 depending on the time of day

 

Thanks for the amazing TR. So much fun, loved reading along!

Question: What does the casino look like? Is it big, small, are there lots of tables, slots?
I can't find any pictures online.

 

Its just the MGM grand casino. The "Mansion" casino is just another name they give the high limit room at MGM Grand. The walkway between the Mansion and the main part of the resort goes straight through the high limit room, but you can also get to that room from the main part of the resort as well (its next to L'Atelier and across from Wolfgang Puck).

I would estimate that its on the larger side s far as high limit rooms go. It doesn't always appear that way because they pack a lot of tables into the front half of the main room. But there is a little more space in the back, plus plenty of smaller rooms much farther back for reserved tables and big games. I would guess that its larger than Bellagio high limit, but smaller than the Wynn high limit area. Its probably most similar in size to the Aria baccarat high limit, albeit an entirely different layout. There are no slots in there. MGM Grand (like most high end casinos) has a separate high limit slot area

 

UK, I respect your process, the results and all of the opinions....but you do know teams that win the Super Bowl (or get demolished every year in the NFCCG) make the Postseason, yes?

I know you have a love affair with the Minnesota Vikings so I have to believe they are the team you expect to win the NFCN.

Pack has a tough schedule on paper for sure...but all 'tough' schedules look that way before the season starts and many teams everyone expect to be good win 5-6 games (maybe GB is one of them this year).

The Coach and the team have really clobbered everyone in this division the last two years and it is a very talented roster. I don't really see anything changing on that front.

The kid they're throwing out at LT (Elgton Jenkins) is in the discussion for most underrated-nobody talks about players in all of football (how ithe hell he wasn't a Top 100 player is laughable) and I would argue he might be GB's best player not named Aaron Rodgers. Replacing Bakhtiari for six games was seemingly a concern after watching Billy Turner get annihilated in the NFCCG over there....but I don't have any concerns about this kid or the position right now.

Great report. More Del Taco meals next time, though.

Good luck with all of the picks.

 

I like 20 to 1 odds on a team I rate in my top 8. Good luck!

No real love for the Vikes. I rate the Pack higher, but they have the tougher schedule. In the end, I think the Pack and Vikes are both likely to sit at 9 wins. The Vikes will win more early, but the Pack should catch up. I bet the no playoffs on GB mainly because I like the odds on it and I don't think them (or the Vikes) will be in line for a wild card berth. So they have to win the division. Their schedule is pretty well balanced throughout the season, which is why I expect them to likely alternate wins and losses through most of the season. If they get upset early, though, and fall behind a bit, I think there is potential for the tem to check out. Its clear Rodgers wants out. So could he reach a point where he isn't putting forth maximum effort if he thinks its a lost season? I think its possible. I also struggle with how his teammates, especially on defense, feel about him at the moment. Football players, moreso than any other team sport, really seem to get sideways with their teammates if they feel they are not playing their best. I still think they are a very talented team, but schedule combined with the potential disruptive psychology of the team prevents me from getting excited about them.

 

My boyfriend is from MN and would never lay a penny on the Vikings. He said they always end up choking when they are ahead.

 

You are so right about how crazy it has been trying to predict the Colts this year. Like, how can a team that never has any drama have this much drama now? It will definitely be a rough start for them. .

 

That is definitely a homer take, but I udnerstand your bf's sentiment. I have noticed that under the current coaches, the Vikes seem to alternate good (playoff) years with bad ones. That would mean they are due for a good season, but I think its just coincidence. Its certainly not a fact I would base my wagers on. Its just interesting