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Video Poker Evaluating the latest Binions offer as it relates to VP.

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by bman77, Jun 16, 2020.

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  1. bman77

    bman77 Low-Roller

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    Requesting some help from my VP math gurus as it relates to the latest Binions offer. I'd like to know if in theory this would turn VP positive at Binions if play is perfect ( mine won't be, but let's pretend it is.)
    The offer
    Earn 4000 points- get $400 in free play
    Earn 40 in bonus comp dollars at 2000 points
    Earn another 100 in bonus comp dollars at 4000 points.

    Additionally with regular club rewards you earn $25 bucks for every 1000 points, so
    that should be another $100
    And $50 in comp dollars earned for every 1000 points, which would be $200 comp dollars in total.

    Total potential earnings. $500 in free play and $250 in comp dollars
    $8 coin in equals 1 point
    I'd be playing 8/5 Bonus poker. 99.17 return.

    Would this offer put the VP into positive territory? or if not, how close would it get? ...Thanks for any input you can offer.
     
    Spring 2024
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  2. 3OfDiamonds

    3OfDiamonds Waiting For “Very Good” Video Poker @ Rio…

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    Yes, definitely: just considering the free play/cash back, you are looking at 99.17% (EV for 8/5 BP) + 1.25% (promo free play) + .3125% (standard cash back) = 100.7325% EV ($234.40 on 4000 points/$32K coin-in, although let’s just say $230 because strategy cards aren’t perfect :)), and that’s not even factoring in 1.0625% back in total comp dollars if you hit 4000 points ($340 on same coin-in) :thumbsup::beer::feedme:
     
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  3. bman77

    bman77 Low-Roller

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    Thanks for the breakdown 3ofDiamonds, it looks like I'll be spending some time at Binions this trip.
     
    Spring 2024
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  4. jimboguy

    jimboguy MIA

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    It wasn’t clear in your post OP, just wanna make sure you know Four Queens is running this promo too.
     
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  5. FABismonte

    FABismonte Tell my wife I am "about even."

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    I second @jimboguy If you are a looking at 8/5 Bonus Poker with an expected return of 99.17% at Binions, I would Consider crossing the street to Four Queens and look at 10/6 Double Double Bonus at 99.96% or if you want to skip volatility 9/6 JOB at 99.54 %. Both games have better player return than 8/5 Bonus and JOB has pretty much same strategy as 8/5 Bonus.

    Both casinos have the same owner and the same promo and same regular cash back and comp dollars.

    FAB
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2020
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  6. 3OfDiamonds

    3OfDiamonds Waiting For “Very Good” Video Poker @ Rio…

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    I’ll third this motion posed by the two directly above :) Of course, if you can take advantage of both, by all means do so (just maybe 4Q first ;)) :thumbsup:
     
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  7. DDB

    DDB Low-Roller

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    If you are gonna play, you might as well play where the playin' is good.

    They ran a similar promo last year. I used it. I had a $1500 BR for the effort and played mostly 9/6 Jacks. After banging out $32,000 coin in (in one session), I was stuck about $700. I did not hit a royal, but did hit a SF. Quads seemed about on schedule. After running my FP through, and getting my $100 cash back, I was stuck a few hundred.

    All those comps provided a meal at the coffee shop and dinner for 2 at Hugo's.

    Such a large coin-in session did generate real nice mailers/comp offers going forward.

    I enjoyed it and would certainly do it again.
     
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  8. bman77

    bman77 Low-Roller

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    Thanks for the input everyone. To be clear, I stay at FQ every trip and plan on using the promo their first. I was just debating if I'd consider playing at Binions as well after doing so. The status of my bankroll after playing at FQ will likely be the deciding factor.
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2020
    Spring 2024
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  9. Don the Dentist

    Don the Dentist LV resident

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    And after putting $32K through the machines, you should get some decent mailers.
     
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  10. aliasyoshi

    aliasyoshi Low-Roller

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    Wasn't there a thread on this where someone posted a spreadsheet/screenshot that broke down this offer? I swear I saw it on these boards within the past week but now I can't find it.
     
  11. eliza

    eliza Creepy Vegas Friend

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    I don't recall seeing that here, but I keep a spreadsheet with promo values for my personal use - here's my numbers (based on perfect play, so discount it based on your accuracy depending on game/strategy). These numbers don't include the comps as I don't normally consider them. If you value them - you can add them in. Depending on how much you play - you may be generating future mailers that have some value for you as well.
    • Four Queens 10/6 DDB - 101.52% return (99.96% base game + .3125% cashback + 1.25% promo)
    • Four Queens 9/6 Jacks - 101.1% return (99.54% base game + .3125% cashback + 1.25% promo)
    • Binion's 8/5 - 100.73% return (99.17% base game .3125% cashback + 1.25% promo)
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2020
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  12. FABismonte

    FABismonte Tell my wife I am "about even."

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    Thanks for the breakdown @eliza.

    Eliza chose not to include comp dollars. But all visitors have to eat at some restaurant when in Vegas and I like Hugo's Cellar, so that has some solid value too. BTW, don't forget the great cookies you can buy with comp dollars at Magnolia's.

    FAB

    (Edited to remove a suggested correction to @eliza since she has now fixed a typo.)
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2020
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  13. FABismonte

    FABismonte Tell my wife I am "about even."

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    @DDB may I ask how long that session took? I recall that Four Queens 9/6 Jacks was only up to the Dollar level. I am interested in how long it would take to hit $32,000 so I can plan my time the next Vegas trip.

    FAB
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2020
  14. eliza

    eliza Creepy Vegas Friend

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    Thanks for the correction - I did indeed fat finger that entry. It is 10/6 DDB - I'm going to go back and correct it just so no one is confused.

    As a mostly solo traveler, I end up with about as many comps as I can use (especially at Four Queens with their generous comp policy) based on my normal play, so I don't get a ton of incremental value out of the comp dollars and therefore don't quantify it. But, for many the comp dollars would have a real value and should be counted. Hugo's Cellar is great! And I quite like the deep dish pizza at Chicago Brewing as well. I seem to be the outlier on Magnolia's - I can take it or leave it, but would never go there if it wasn't comped - although I may need to check out this cookie situation. I'll have to get to Top of Binions one of these days to check it out and use up some of those comp dollars.
     
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  15. Don the Dentist

    Don the Dentist LV resident

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    At a speed of 1,000 hands per hour...that is $5,000 coin-in per hour...its about 6.5 hours...round it up to 7 hours for drink deliveries, potty breaks, smoking, etc.
     
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  16. DDB

    DDB Low-Roller

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    Don is about right, 7 hours ish as I recall. When I was done my ass, eyes, wrists and hands were pretty sore.
     
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  17. Philonous815

    Philonous815 Well-Known Member

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    I hate playing on the uprights. I can't really last more than an hour on those.
     
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  18. Don the Dentist

    Don the Dentist LV resident

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    I agree. Very uncomfortable. At least at Binions there are 8/5 Bonus Poker on slant tops.
     
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