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Table Games Baccarat Strategy

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To win $50k at $50 per hand. Impressive. Baccarat is a volatile game. My strategy is to get up a certain amount of units or a percentage of my buy in, relax then repeat. Greed is the main problem for most people I would say.

For instance, I buy in for $100 playing $10 per hand. Depending on how everything is going, my goal is to get up 25-75% of my buy in.

If you want to get a higher limit using the martingale system, bring a few friends. Say there is a $25k max bet. If you have 3 friends with you. Your max bet is 100k, including yourself. When I was young, I experimented wit the martingale system. The payout is not worth the risk. It's better to just fire a large hand to win big then fire a large hand to win 1 unit.
 
dunebug81 said:
Autoshuffler? I can honestly say I've played at 80% of the casinos in the US in the last 4 years that offer table games and would have baccarat. never have I seen an auto shuffler used. What casino are you talking about?
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This was at Mandalay Bay, about 9 years ago. And if you look around Vegas, you'll see lots of casinos using auto shufflers at mini-bacc (not so much at big bacc). I have never had a run like it using Martingale since, though I have had several $XX,XXX runs with it. However, I have also been bounced out almost immediately with $10K+ losses several times with it. As I have repeatedly said, neither this nor any other betting strategy for any negative expectation game devised by any human has ever been a "winning" system. This is simply a way to win more often than you lose, so you can enjoy the illusion that you are winning more often than not. It is not a way to win more money than you lose overall.
 
RiddickBull said:
To win $50k at $50 per hand. Impressive. Baccarat is a volatile game.
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He just posted his progression, it wasn't martingale at $50 units. He played martingale on steroids and more than doubled up sometimes. So his net win on each streak would be either $50, $150, or $1150. His potential loss though after 8 straight losses would be $18,850! :faint:

By the way baccarat is one of the least volatile games. Though given the stakes people play it probably feels volatile as hell.
 
thefish2010 said:
Of course you can win in the short term. Over the long term, however, it is mathematically impossible for you to be ahead of the house. Are you really going to argue that it's possible to beat a negative expectation game over time? The house edge is inescapable and you will eventually lose every dollar that you choose to bet.
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Maybe I am reading this wrong... but it looks like you are suggesting no one wins more than they lose over the course of their lifetime. I really must be reading it wrong because that is a ridiculous suggestion :)
 
Ronoh said:
Maybe I am reading this wrong... but it looks like you are suggesting no one wins more than they lose over the course of their lifetime. I really must be reading it wrong because that is a ridiculous suggestion :)
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I'm not sure if you are kidding or not, but you aren't reading it wrong :) . If there is such a person, I would love to meet them and ask them their secret lol. Steve Wynn claims that none of his players are ahead over the long term. This of course doesn't include players of games that aren't negative expectation - such as poker players, or those that play with a mathematically positive expectation like card counters at blackjack, edge sorters, etc. But you are correct in your interpretation of what I said - no one beats a negative expectation game over the course of time with money management techniques or pure luck. Doesn't happen. I wish it did!
 
thefish2010 said:
I'm not sure if you are kidding or not, but you aren't reading it wrong :) . If there is such a person, I would love to meet them and ask them their secret lol. Steve Wynn claims that none of his players are ahead over the long term. This of course doesn't include players of games that aren't negative expectation - such as poker players, or those that play with a mathematically positive expectation like card counters at blackjack, edge sorters, etc. But you are correct in your interpretation of what I said - no one beats a negative expectation game over the course of time with money management techniques or pure luck. Doesn't happen. I wish it did!
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Okay, first the obvious type... many of the 6+ figure winners on slot machines. My father hit $45K on a 75/75/75 Let it Ride straight flush (small time player on a fluke wager of his last remaining gaming funds before heading to the airport). Guarantee he is +lifetime.

Now more to the type you are probably talking about... take a serious bacc player who puts in thousands of hours over the course of his lifetime. Is it possible for him to be up over any random 100-hour stretch of that time that spans a number of months? Of course it is. Therefore it is entirely possible for someone who puts in 100 hours of play on bacc over the course of their lifetime to end up a winner.

Obviously no one can beat a -EV game over the course of infinate hands, the math will catch up eventually... maybe that is what you mean, as I said I may have been reading it wrong.
 
Ronoh said:
Okay, first the obvious type... many of the 6+ figure winners on slot machines. My father hit $45K on a 75/75/75 Let it Ride straight flush (small time player on a fluke wager of his last remaining gaming funds before heading to the airport). Guarantee he is +lifetime.

Now more to the type you are probably talking about... take a serious bacc player who puts in thousands of hours over the course of his lifetime. Is it possible for him to be up over any random 100-hour stretch of that time that spans a number of months? Of course it is. Therefore it is entirely possible for someone who puts in 100 hours of play on bacc over the course of their lifetime to end up a winner.

Obviously no one can beat a -EV game over the course of infinate hands, the math will catch up eventually... maybe that is what you mean, as I said I may have been reading it wrong.
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In gambling long or short term is defined by the actual number of trials (hands/spins played), not the amount of time in between them (which is meaningless). If your father never plays that game again, he hasn't won over the long term - he won in the short term. FYI it doesn't take an infinite number of hands to get reasonably close to the theoretical (negative) return of the game, and it takes even fewer to simply be behind but not yet at the exact expected loss.

Think of it this way: each and every hand of a negative expectation game like baccarat moves you further away from the possibility of ever being ahead overall. On baccarat, you actually start with around a 50.5% chance of never being ahead overall - on bet #1 in your entire life. It only gets worse from there. With every hand, you further diminish those chances, and relatively quickly it becomes astronomically unlikely that you are or ever will be ahead of that game. As gamblers, it is incredibly difficult to conceptualize this, because through the magic of variance we see wins and losses occur, and have winning and losing sessions and trips. But it is a mathematical fact, and the only reason that Las Vegas has been able to keep their doors open for so long.
 
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thefish2010 said:
If your father never plays that game again, he hasn't won over the long term - he won in the short term.
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He has put in plenty of time both before and after... I suppose it comes down to the question when does "short term" become "long term"?

If you define any player that is +lifetime as being in the short term (be it 1 hour, 10 hours, 100 hours, whatever) then I completely agree with your theory... on a long enough timeline the math would eventually catch up.
 
Everyone is saying the same thing...as has been said many times, at infinite playing time your actual loss and your theoretical loss intersect. Anything short of infinite time is "short term" and you could be ahead for that game...
 
The casinos are in the long term on their games because they are open 24/7 and that is why the math favors them and their balance sheet. The longer a player plays a negative expectation game the more probable he or she is to lose money. If I had $100,000 dollars I wanted to wager at baccarat I would have a better mathematical chance of winning by placing one single wager of $100,000 than I would by making 500 wagers of $200.:peace:
 

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eric.mckeeman said:
JimboS has a good point. Baccarat is great in the fact that you can have fairly low minimums ($25 usually) and high limits ($20K). The necessary bankroll is very key in using a negative progression. I used it the last time I was in Vegas and walked away with $500+ (betting the $25 minimum).

There are two tips I will give you if you decide to bring $20K to the table: 1) don't play on tilt when you start losing 4 or 5 hands in a row and 2) set a goal amount and don't get greedy.

You could use this for BJ as I saw tables in Bellagio that had similar mins/limits; however, I don't want to think while I gamble so baccarat is perfect for me.
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Just the other day, there was a run of 23 Bankers at the baccarat Table.
if Martingale (negative Betting is your flavor of choice, I would recommend to stay away from Baccarat and play BJ (Streaks of 3) or roulette (Streaks of 5) or Sic Bo (Streaks of 3)

Baccarat is the best games for Streaks. Highly recommend for the Positive progression better.
 
BacPro45 said:
Just the other day, there was a run of 23 Bankers at the baccarat Table.
if Martingale (negative Betting is your flavor of choice, I would recommend to stay away from Baccarat and play BJ (Streaks of 3) or roulette (Streaks of 5) or Sic Bo (Streaks of 3)

Baccarat is the best games for Streaks. Highly recommend for the Positive progression better.
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varmenti!!!!

So glad you can finally drop by.
 
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