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WYNN Resort Stock Price - Experts Opinions Wanted

Discussion in 'Casino Industry & Development' started by mrstealth, Jan 11, 2016.

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  1. mrstealth

    mrstealth High-Roller

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    I've been watching the price of Wynn stock for a little over a year now, and watching the reports, rumors, etc. I know things in Macau have really deteriorated and are creating tremendous downside pressure on the stock, but just looking at the assets, both here and in China, I have to think the stock has a lot of value (and no, I cannot see any scenario in which Adelson/Sands could buy out Wynn).

    Uncertainties:

    - Lawsuit with Kazuo Okada. According to all of the research I can find the lawsuit isn't even scheduled to happen until February of 2017

    - The situation in Macuu. Not sure how you accurately factor this into the stock ?

    I understand that any responses are just pure speculation, I am interested to hear the thoughts of others on the subject.

    My question is this - for those of you that have monitored (and/or even own and trade the stock) - what is your opinion on the price of the stock in the Mid 50's as it is now ? What do you see as the potential bottom ?
     
  2. VegasDave

    VegasDave Addicted

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    I am not an expert, just a fellow watcher. I like the stock because of the dividend. No idea where it is going, but at least it has that going for it.
     
  3. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    There should be at least one more round of support at $50 again, if it gets there it'll have a 4% yield, which is what saved it back in 2012 when it dipped under $100 after one bad Q.

    The current situation, however, is worse than one bad Q. They need the gov't to change policy and they need the Chinese markets to bottom.

    If you wanted to go in here ($57/$58), I'd make it small.

    If you see the Shanghai and Hang Seng continue to deteriorate and WYNN never goes below $50, that will be telling you something.
     
  4. mrstealth

    mrstealth High-Roller

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    Thanks Chuck, I appreciate your thoughtful response. I see the stock is down another 1.50 or so (2.85%) today to around $55.

    With all of these external variables/unknowns right now (especially the Chinese factors), it's really hard to figure how low the stock can go. I hate buying a stock when it's on the way down so I just may wait here and see if it dips into the low $50's and below I think I;m gonna start buying. 4% yield isn't the end of the world, and over the next 6 - 12 months hopefully we can get a clearer answer to some of the external factors affecting the price.
     
  5. NickPapageorgio

    NickPapageorgio OG of the Sal Sagev Hotel

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    Finding a bottom is like trying to catch a falling knife, both literally and figuratively. It's obviously approaching value territory but you have to be prepared for further correction. Stocks often defy logic. "But how can it drop further, when it's down 82% in 12 sessions?" It can.

    Nick:beer:
     
  6. mikeyvegas1

    mikeyvegas1 Low-Roller

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    Wynn stock is going to get most of its growth from Macau. Growth in Macau looks like it will come from the mass market not the high rollers. Wynn does not really focus on the mass market so its recovery could take longer then LVS which is well positioned to take advantage mass market growth.
    As far as a bottom people get paid millions to predict that stuff and get it wrong so good luck. Same thing with a turn around it could be 3 months or 3 years but I think with the growing middle class in China and more transportation infrastructure to Macau from the mainland all of the Macau gaming companies will go up from current levels if you want to hold them long enough.
    I also do not think LVS will by Wynn unless we dip into a deep recession and it is survival dependent. Then Steve will use the money plus get some funding and build the newest fanciest casino/resort the world has ever seen once again.
    In full disclosure I have a small amount of LVS shares that I am very long on collecting the nice dividend until it recovers and then go from there.
     
    Sons 21st birthday trip
  7. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Good info and I am glad the question was asked because I was also thinking about getting in on WYNN and perhaps even LVS and the others.

    I am also trying to figure out when I want to get in on oil. It keeps dropping so I am going to see if it hits $28 and then buy a little bit
     
  8. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    To be honest, a 4% div doesn't really mean that much with a volatile stock like WYNN. You're not going to be comforted by the div when you lose a year's worth of divs the day after you buy it.
     
  9. Krh2o

    Krh2o MIA

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    Last year Wynn had to cut its dividend. That is never a good sign. They also have faced some delays with their newest Macau resort. Best thing that could happen is Wynn gets bought. That would be a nice jump from this price.

    I like LVS more then Wynn, because their balance sheet can support their dividend. They raised it for this year. It is currently 6.60%, now as the stock goes up it will get smaller, but at this level its a pretty solid dividend play in my opinion.
     
  10. leo21

    leo21 VIP Whale

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    I don't know about the current value but more uncertainties to take into account are the different projects in various stages out east. Some are involved in long political debates that have to be resolved before they can break ground.
     
  11. StingerHook

    StingerHook Low-Roller

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    I'm in agreement with what Chuck & Nick have both said. If you're dying to have some shares then take a small position here, but I would wait to see if it can find support at $50.
     
  12. DRPinVA

    DRPinVA Low-Roller

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    I have personally stayed out of it simply because of the uncertainty with the Chinese government/Maccau. Many things you can factor into the price of a stock, but I don't know enough about the Chinese government to be able to factor that into a company's value.
     
    Oh Boy! Oh Boy! Oh Boy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  13. Spock

    Spock Tourist

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    I have been looking at WYNN for some time along with LVS and BYD (Boyd Gaming).

    Considering the amount of debt that WYNN has currently and around 20% short interest - I would certainly wait to buy in. If you look at the latest gambling numbers - the strip had a decline and the downtown revenue was up something like 28%.

    Looks like the kids partying all night are not gambling much.

    BYD is interesting but too expensive at more than a 100 P/E ratio. I made around 70% return in last year on BYD before cashing in.


    Waiting for the stock to drop to low 40's . .. give it time and it will go there.
     
  14. RealSolGlow

    RealSolGlow Low-Roller

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    The Vegas strip is also projected to make a profit for the first time in years this year ending 2016.

    If the WYNN goes to the low 40's its a big buy but I would jump on it at 45 and be happy with a long term investment. If things go south they will be targeted for a buyout from somebody and that will only help.

    Just my $.02.
     
  15. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    WYNN pre-announced 4Q earns this morning. So far, it's trading up in a horrid tape.
     
  16. Spock

    Spock Tourist

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    Taking LVS up also .. WYNN up 10% ...

    Steve had confidence in the Q before buying the million shares :poke:
     
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