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Would you hedge ?

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by robxj, Dec 22, 2014.

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  1. robxj

    robxj Tourist

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    I need the Vikings to beat the bears in week #17 in order to win this ticket. I am guaranteed a push but want to lock in some profit. I'm probably going to hedge Bears Money Line which is +260 for $400. If the Bears win I will win over $1,000 on the hedge bet. If the Vikings win then I win my Over/Under 6 wins bet for $1325. Seems like a no brainer to hedge $400 on Bears ML +260. Any thoughts or advice on how to play this angle?

    Thanks

    ROBXJ
     
  2. thunderdave

    thunderdave Low-Roller

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    Since you've got the 6 wins, I would not hedge. Consider it a free roll.
    That's just me.
     
  3. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Well, I am going to try and talk you out of it, lol. I recall being in a similar circumstance two years ago with the NBA Finals. I had a $2000 futures bet at 6 to 1 on the Spurs to win the title and Game 7 was approaching. I decided not to hedge. Obviously, I was wrong. But I don't regret the decision because unless you are talking life changing money, why hedge? And you're in an even better position than I was two years ago because you get a push at worst! Even better, the Vikes are the favorites! You have the odds in your favor on a wager where you cannot lose money! I say let it ride, unless that $1000 is going to make a significant difference short term in your life
     
  4. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    Yep... though I'd probably hedge for $366 to maximize the win.
     
  5. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    I think this hedge is relatively cheap to win $1000.

    It's not life changing, but I'd rather book $1000 win than push. Gets me a few more hands at BJ.
     
  6. bubbakitty

    bubbakitty native Texan; born and bred.

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    I learn something from this board everyday. I did not know betting OVER 6 meant a tie if only 6.....I (incorrectly) assumed you had to win 7.....to win. I thought that was why they had the 1/2 bets like Cowboys over 8.5 games....meant 8 was a loser....9 a winner....

    Does this mean the UNDER 6 wins too if Chicago somehow finds a miracle in the season? You would certainly be acceptable in hedging if losing the game meant losing the entire bet....like betting the last number needed to max the fire bet.....just in case....

    Thanks for the info. Changes my approach next year....
     
    1st Super Bowl DT...Panthers / Browns no doubt
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  7. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    I'd hedge myself..84 year-old buddy of mine a veteran gambler who has been around the block a few times,always says anytime you have the book by the balls,take the $.

    On a side note (I see your ticket is LVH) last season my o/u bets at CET (Rio) on Miami and Chicago both landed on 8.I thought they would be pushes,but they were not because CET bets also had the EXACTLY 8 win option.Hope that is not the case here for you with the LVH.
    In any case looks like you are sitting pretty.Congrats.
     
  8. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    I would hedge, to lock in a significant win.
    Remember this is the NFL, so on any given Sunday....
     
  9. robxj

    robxj Tourist

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    Wouldn't the ticket say "Ties Lose". I have just assumed all along that I had the push @ 6 wins. I rally hope that is the case. Why would there be 1/2 #'s if pushes weren't in play. Just put the # at 6.5 and that takes the push out of play. Anyone else want to chime in if I don't have a guaranteed push?
     
  10. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    6 wins is a push.
     
  11. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    Rob when you placed the bet was there an option for the Vikes to win 6 EXACTLY ? If not you're ok..Just relating my small surprise last year but with Caesars.
     
  12. robxj

    robxj Tourist

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    I don't recall James. I would have never made an exactly 6 wins bet, especially at +110. Others have assured me that I have the push locked up so hopefully that is the case. Thank you everyone for chiming in. Merry Christmas!!
     
  13. thunderdave

    thunderdave Low-Roller

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    Call LVH and try to get a ruling on the 6 wins exactly. That might sway your decision.
     
  14. robxj

    robxj Tourist

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    Will do. I'm assuming that an "exactly 6" win bet would say it. It wouldn't say "OVR 6" as is the case in my bet. Will call the book just to ease my nerves.
     
  15. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    Yes Rob an Exactly 6 ticket would say that...My bets last year said Miami under 8 and Chicago over 8.When both teams landed on 8 I thought they would be pushes.Sent the Tix in and got a letter from the sportsbook that stated that the winning wager was Exactly 8 on both teams and therefore my bets were losers.
    Hopefully the LVH did not have that option to play the EXACT total.If not you have the push..Sorry to cause you concern about this.
     
  16. robxj

    robxj Tourist

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    No worries James and thanks for the comments. I just got off the phone with the Westgate, former LVH superbook and they said I have the push locked up so no worries. Glad to know.
     
  17. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    Awesome thanks and best wishes!
     
  18. bjpcyclone

    bjpcyclone High-Roller

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    I'd hedge. Here are your four possible outcomes:

    1. You don't hedge, Bears win. You push and collect $1,200. Net $0.
    2. You hedge $400, Vikings win. You collect $2,500 - $400 hedge bet (+$2,100). Net $900
    3. You hedge $400, Bears win. You collect $1,400 + $1,200 push ticket. Net $1,000
    4. You don't hedge, Vikings win. You collect $2,500. Net $1,300.

    Seems like a no brainer to me to hedge. You are giving up $300 or $400 in potential value by hedging (if you lose). If you don't hedge (and lose), you are giving up $900 or $1,000.
     
  19. Labeeb

    Labeeb Low-Roller

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    I would approach it as a free roll situation as well and not hedge. Assuming that a dime is a normal futures type wager, there's no need to give away equity when in this position. Long term you're doing yourself a disservice. Just a matter of whether you are viewing this bet in your short or long run. Good luck!
     
  20. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    Benched QB Cutler is now going to start Sunday. Who the hell knows what is going around in his head. Yesterday I would have said don't hedge. Now, who knows?
     
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