1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Win Goals and Loss Limits IE Money Management

Discussion in 'Casino Gaming' started by Ben Jammin, Nov 17, 2015.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Ben Jammin

    Ben Jammin VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,145
    Location:
    Cali
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    120
    We go to Vegas to have fun, right? So setting win goals and loss limits can cut into your gambling Jones. However it is better to receive than to give, at least when it comes to the tables in Vegas. (or any other form of gambling) be it Video Poker or Slots or whatever, one can say it is more fun to win.

    So the dilemma, if we have won our win goal, pocketed at least half of the winnings, and played on until we hit our second win goal or the streak has petered out but ... WE still have some of our winnings rat holed in our pocket (books) and we have walked away after a good session and we are UP! Should we walk away? Hell Yes!

    Now, how often does that happen? Not often enough according to Steve Wynn, who boasts he keeps 20% of every gambling dollar that flows through his casinos. So you might ask; "how can that happen?" Well, most of us who are advantage players wouldn't even go to the Wynn to gamble. Or anywhere else on the Strip for that matter with the exception of the High Limit Blackjack tables with minimum bets of $25 during the week, weekends higher.

    The fact is most folks don't know how to gamble. They know how to put a bet down, or pull a slot handle, or maybe they have a limited amount of knowledge of the game they choose to play, but they don't really know how to gamble. Why ? Because money management is as much a part of gambling as is knowlege of the game.

    I'm an expert level player, I know the rules and strategy of all of my games of choice but what good does that do me without a solid money management system? The short answer is NONE!

    Now, love him or hate him John Patrick has come up with one of the best money management systems I've ever used, and it has saved my bacon so many times I can't tell you, and it has also allowed me to maximize my winnings when I do get lucky.

    So, do what you will but if you are going to get serious about winning you really might want to look into a Good "Money Management System".
     
  2. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    :facepalm:

    Serious advantage players consider risk of ruin, but otherwise give very little attention to money management. They have the edge and thus want to keep right on playing (the only exception being drawing heat) Win goals and loss limits are psychological controls on the player, that's it. All they do is reduce your iterations. If you are still playing a negative expectation game, and still coming back frequently, you are still going to be a long term loser. The difference between you and the guy who "gives it all back" will only, over the long term, be that he made more bets.

    So here is my new 100% effective money management strategy: win goal and loss limit of 0.

    Put more simply for you, the only difference between you playing more today, and you 'walking away' and then coming back tomorrow and playing is on the psychological "reward" you give yourself for having booked a win. It it feels good, do it. But don't believe it has given you an edge.
     
  3. h0und10

    h0und10 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Messages:
    709
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    5
    The only "edge" we have over the casino is that we can decide when to quit! That is our house advantage. We can hit a decent size win and get the heck out of dodge!
     
  4. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    That is not an advantage, and thinking of it as one is borderline dangerous.
     
  5. sabre

    sabre Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2009
    Messages:
    190
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    This is just awful.
     
  6. Not at the table Carlos

    Not at the table Carlos Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2011
    Messages:
    321
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    7
    Thank you Nevyn.

    Ben, an "expert" advantage player like yourself, or so you say, realizes that each session is part of the long term, and session results are meaningless. An advantage player is one that actually has an advantage, and the longer they play, the more money they will win in the long run. Each individual session is part of ONE lifelong session. Money management to an advantage player is exactly what Nevyn said: psychological reward.

    Money management may be key to a recreational gambler, but don't start a thread that makes you out to be a knowledgeable professional gambler/true advantage player.
     
  7. hail2skins

    hail2skins Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2011
    Messages:
    288
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    30
    Can you fill us in on the bottom line (summarize briefly) of what Patrick recommends?

    I think what the OP is saying is that the casino's biggest advantage is not necessarily the built in advantage of the table games and machines, but the limited bankroll of the players compared to the relative unlimited one of the casinos. Seems that a lot of folks are either under bankrolled for their desired playing level, or they tend to steam to chase losses and get themselves into trouble that way. I think figuring out an appropriate bankroll for one's betting level and then maintaining consistency in your betting is a good strategy.
     
  8. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    Even if that is what he is saying, it is a common fallacy and not really accurate.

    It implies that a casino would rather have a person buy in with $300 at a $25 blackjack table to flat bet than have someone buy in with $10000 at a $25 table to flat bet because the second guy could 'ride out' bad luck. And that is simply not the case. The casino has a built in mathematical advantage. They want as many bets to happen, as big as possible. They love it if you are sufficiently bankrolled. A person who is down $300 is still mathematically at a disadvantage for the next hand whether they can afford to play it or not.

    Remember that the casino is all about the long run. They want to make sure you are not advantage playing, then they want to make sure you are playing.

    Do they dislike loss limits and win goals? Sure. But only because they are conditions under which the playing stops. That does not make these into winning strategies. It just mitigates losses by forcing you to play less, and changes the distribution of your outcomes.
     
  9. Ben Jammin

    Ben Jammin VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,145
    Location:
    Cali
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    120
    John Patrick has an extensive web site whereas he goes into detail on win goals and loss limits. His unorthodox approach to gambling itself has earned him a reputation as a Charlatan but you must realize that all theses gurus that adhere to the letter of rule IE "The Math" pretty much say the same thing. He deviates from the norm which has earned him some degree of notoriety.

    There is, without a doubt a specific mathematical approach to each and every situation that presents itself as far as the absolute basic strategy that will yield the highest and best return over the long run taking into account the Variance and other factors such as the size of ones bankroll with respect to being able to withstand the variance. Some folks simply don't have the resources to withstand a long term losing streak even though we know that lady luck will eventually turn our way once again and pay us back and then some.

    If you would like to see what John Patrick has to say then look him up on You Tube or his web site. Remember this guy came to town with only a few bucks in his pocket and went on to be an authority on gambling and has made his living over the years writing books and giving advice to folks like you and I on how to reduce your long term losses and minimize the house advantage.

    When minimizing the house edge we can maximize to some extent our earned comps. Free rooms food and beverages help to justify those losses which are in the long run inevitable.

    We can just have more fun with our gambling dollars, make them go further and get back more from them in the form of comps. After all, as I said in the beginning, We're there to have fun.

    .
     
  10. Buddha

    Buddha VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2012
    Messages:
    1,469
    Location:
    Chicago 'burbs
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    60
    Sorry, but I'm one of those VP players with repetitive cash-outs to protect session wins, and possible session losses.
    I usually start each day with 6 or 7 C-notes in my pocket, and begin each session with a $100 ... with two $$ rules that I adhere to.

    I'm sure there are dozens of players out there that would scoff at my cash-out system, but here is what I do .....
    If during a session, my $100 start-up becomes $165, I cash out my ticket, and start a new $100. If during my session, my $100 start-up drops to $35, I cash out my ticket. After my 6 or 7 sessions, I evaluate my cash-out totals, and will completely pocket everything above $500, and play those 5 sessions. After those 5 sessions, following the same cash-out levels, I re-evalute, pocket everything above $300, and then play those 3 sessions. Once I reach my desired player's point total for the day, I quit for the day, no matter what.

    Call me crazy, but I will not just sit there, and lose $100 after $100 , etc. , until it's all gone. Many experts will laugh at all of this ... but it works for me, and puts some "comfort" in my mind & pocket. I may not win every trip out to La-La Land, but I always come home with most of my money, if not a profit. Hell, I'm pleased as punch if I just break even ... since we never pay for a room, or a meal.

    "Buddha"
     
  11. dvandentop

    dvandentop VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,763
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    15
    Thanks for explanations everyone
     
  12. VegasDragon

    VegasDragon Roller

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2010
    Messages:
    397
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    121
    Like this post!
     
  13. Ben Jammin

    Ben Jammin VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,145
    Location:
    Cali
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    120
    When you factor in mistakes, tipping (if you aren't too cheap) and getting buzzed that leads to stupid mistakes, and those long term losing streaks called "Valleys" and then the "Hills" which are winning streaks then over the long long term you might be a winner or at best break even and with comps and perks then you might even get ahead however as the saying goes, Gambling is a hard way to make an easy living.

    Most of us here are short term recreational gamblers that have lives and real jobs and other obligations so we can't spend all of our days chasing the rainbow that is playing to the "Advantage".

    The best we can hope for is to MINIMIZE our losses, MAXIMIZE our comps and have a jolly good time doing it.

    If you want to make a job out of it or at best an obsession more power to ya but that ain't me!

    Lots of luck to you all and happy holidays!

    .
     
  14. sabre

    sabre Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2009
    Messages:
    190
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    Not so curiously, the way for a recreational player to accomplish this is to follow much the same approach that those "rainbow" chasing advantage players without "real" jobs do. It's certainly not by listening to charlatans like John Patrick.
     
  15. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2012
    Messages:
    2,664
    Location:
    Fort Worth
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    82
    Alright - here's my particular "money management" system & the reasons I consider it important:
    While I do not disagree what nevyn says about advantage-play, the fact of the matter is that the vast majority of us go to Vegas with finite amount of time to gamble & a finite amount of cash to put at risk.
    Because of this (limited time & limited gambling cash), it is prudent to manage both, unless one is prepared to fly home early or spend days in Vegas without gambling.
    I am a very-low roller, but I do count when I play two-deck blackjack. I do not consider myself a true "advantage player", but I win fairly consistently when I play blackjack (and, oddly enough, UTH).

    That, however, doesn't mean that I never lose. I lose on about 25% of my trips...even trips when all I play is two-deck blackjack.

    The house edge is based on a quantity of bets placed and time spent that most gamblers will never realize during an average trip. That means variance will most definitely play a role in the outcome of of most gambling trips.

    I can play perfect blackjack, never making a basic strategy error, always increasing my bet on positive counts and always decreasing or minimum-betting on negative counts - and still lose. That is the nature of the game. The distribution of cards & hands will - eventually - work out according to the math... but for most of us, that will take a considerable number of Vegas trips and a huge amount of cash wagered. Because of this, I have every confidence that, over time, I will remain a "net" winner at blackjack.

    But trip time & trip bankroll are still important to manage, since (for most of us) the primary purpose for gambling at all is to have fun and win... but having fun is the primary motivator.
    I allow myself a maximum of $700 a day for gambling (with some exceptions that are planned ahead of time).
    When I sit down at a blackjack table, I have a maximum session loss of $200 and a general session win objective of $200.
    I almost never exceed my session loss limit, but I frequently exceed my session win objective.
    This is because of how I feel at the table I'm playing. Am I keeping good counts? Is there any heat? Am I having fun? Are the dealers friendly & engaging? Is the floor guy(pit-critter) welcoming & friendly? Is the cocktail service decent? Are the cards falling well, or am I just getting unusually lucky with bad cards?
    All of these factor in to whether or not I remain after hitting my session win-objective.

    I also have a very large number of sessions where neither my loss-limit nor my win-objective occur...in fact, the majority of my sessions are smaller wins than $200... typically, about $80-to-$120.
    Many of my session losses are less than $200... in fact, the majority of my session losses are between $40 and $100.
    This happens (a lot) due to the same reasons listed above for staying at a table. In any event, I'm pretty certain that the only reason I'm up overall playing blackjack is precisely because of a willingness to leave tables before I hit my loss-limit or achieve my win-objective. Have I missed out on some good runs? I'm sure I have...just as I'm sure I've missed out on some terrible runs.

    I'm a firm believer in booking small wins. The notion that HA will eventually catch up with me? I don't think it will because of the way I play... solid basic strategy & keeping a fairly-good/accurate count.

    I've heard the argument that I should bet more, since my blackjack wins are as reliable as they are... and, if I had an unlimited bankroll, I would.
    This goes to my original point - most of us are on limited time, with a limited amount of cash.
    That's why "money management" is in fact important....not so much to whether you win or lose on trip, but rather because you want to maintain the ability to gamble the entire trip...even if that means booking smaller wins.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  16. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    I want to be clear that I have no issue with money management, nor win goals and loss limits.

    I just happen to think it is important to be clear about what they do and do not achieve for you.

    Because we have seen on here far too many people on here over the years honestly convincing themselves that they could be long term net winners just with these techniques. And when the OP includes an endorsement for someone who capitalizes on that type of magical thinking to sell books, etc, it is worth noting.
     
  17. NickPapageorgio

    NickPapageorgio OG of the Sal Sagev Hotel

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2007
    Messages:
    2,508
    Location:
    Yuma, AZ
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    99
    We have? Far too many? Who?

    I would postulate the exact opposite to be true. The vast majority of board members are rational gamblers with a firm grasp of house advantage and risk vs reward in the gaming world.

    Nick:beer:
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.