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Why can't I hit a parlay?

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by phade, Jun 30, 2016.

  1. phade

    phade Low-Roller

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    Looking for advice for the August trip.

    I go to Vegas in July or August only - and the only action I get into is MLB. I'm not a giant baseball fan but I know enough that I feel confident.

    Every single day, I'll do downstairs and make a handful of bets for nominal amounts ($10 each). I'll usually do two 3-team parlays and a couple straight up picks on teams. I do fairly well picking single teams.

    However, I have yet to win a single 3-team parlay in all of my Vegas trips, which has to be around 50-60 parlay bets over the years. I don't pick crazy longshots...usually have two heavy favorites and then a coin flip game for the third team. Two of 3 teams often win.

    Obviously it's not massive money at play and its recreational for me because I'll check in with the games over the course of the day/night and like to tune in when we sit down for a dinner or something.

    I need to break the curse here - let me have your tips please!
     
  2. jagdan61

    jagdan61 Low-Roller

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    I do better staying away from 3team parlays and concentrate on 2 team parlays. I usually will only do a couple of them a day and for larger amounts ( 50-100) I would rather make fewer bets for larger amounts than make many small bets with 3 team parlays.
    I find i do much better with this stagedy. But it's all about fun and what you enjoy.
     
  3. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Lay the favorite. You're more likely to win picking three favs rather than two
     
  4. Rush

    Rush High-Roller

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    Baseball is a season long journey of streaks. Bet teams that have won 3 in a row, and against teams that have lost 3 in a row.
     
  5. Sinatraatthesands

    Sinatraatthesands Low-Roller

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    Look at the daily situations for live dogs. Dogs that have lost 5 or 6 in a row vs. a team on a 4+ win streak. You say you follow BBall so I'll assume you can find where the value is and isn't in those situations.
     
  6. Sinatraatthesands

    Sinatraatthesands Low-Roller

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    There you go. Didn't read you post before I replied.
     
  7. Jerry Snuggit

    Jerry Snuggit Tourist

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    Maybe switch to football?

    Just kidding. But there is a guy on SiriusXM radio, if you get that, on the weekends named Scott Wetzel. His strategy is "Opposite Picks." He talks through his prediction of the game, all the reasons (for example) that Dallas will beat San Francisco and cover, and just when you're convinced, he's like, ok, we're betting on the 49ers. Might be a strategy to break a slump. LOL.
     
  8. Dr Nostron

    Dr Nostron Low-Roller

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    I call that the Costanza method
     
    • Like Like x 1
  9. phade

    phade Low-Roller

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    All good stuff - much appreciated!
     
  10. pd54

    pd54 Low-Roller

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  11. Mafioso

    Mafioso Low-Roller

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    Parlays in baseball should be throw away money
    Bet 50 or 100 on your straight bets

    and bet your three team parlays by taking 3 + money Dogs
    think about it
    a ticket with a +140 a +125 and a +110 dog for 10 dollars will pay you 100 dollars

    Its worth it and since you cant hit one anyway I would guess you are playing mostly Favorites
    why not get a real payout if and when it does hit?
     
  12. pd54

    pd54 Low-Roller

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    I have a system on picking my teams. They are usually all favourites. Sometimes have one or two underdogs.
    I only bet very small but I have had a great return this season (profit of 41.39%).

    I'm not looking for a 'real payout' or any of that. I pick the ones I think will win
     
  13. POPO2012

    POPO2012 Low-Roller

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    I found that my problem was lack of information. I opened a Twitter account and started following Sportsinsights, Greek Sportsbook, Oddsharks, and Vegas Insider. Sportsinsights is my favorite, learned alot from those guys. So during the day you get everything from trends to injuries. My accuracy improved just from obtaining information and making more intelligent informed wagers. I mess around with offshore wagering which has been fun. I'm small beans alot of $5 -$20 wagers unless its something worth a larger wager.
     
  14. phade

    phade Low-Roller

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    Taking it all in - leaving in under three weeks.

    I usually bet a few straight games - and do well, buy the parlays just bite me in the azz.
     
  15. Rush

    Rush High-Roller

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    BaZING!


    [​IMG]
     
  16. POPO2012

    POPO2012 Low-Roller

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    Niiiiiice
     
  17. phade

    phade Low-Roller

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    Salt in the wound sir, salt in the wound!

    Congrats!
     
  18. Al Beeski

    Al Beeski Tourist

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    Find AL slugging teams i.e. Toronto, Texas, Red Sox, Orioles & take over....bet against Braves, Twins, & reds
     
  19. Clancy3434

    Clancy3434 Tourist

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    I hit a 5 team parlay on opening weekend of the NFL last year... Other than I too have pretty shitty luck.

    If it were easy to hit 3+ team parlays, the casinos wouldn't offer then. 50 straight parlays without a hit seems pretty extreme, but just keep plugging away and don't bet more than you're willing to loose.

    And/or just bet it straight