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Table Games Who plays this BJ strategy

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by angilynny, Oct 13, 2012.

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  1. angilynny

    angilynny Low-Roller

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    Last October when I was in Vegas I had a guy show me his stragedy. He did the $10 bet win and add $5 to that bet as long as you keep winning. As soon as you lose you go back down to $10 and start all over. I have won as much as $300 in a small amount of time. In fact from the time the guy taught me it I won for the next 24 hours straight. The most I have ever gotten up to is $40 out there. My goal is to get to 18 straight hands won which means $100 out there.

    For those of you who play this way at what amount would you pull back? What is the most hands you won in a row?

    Who finds this play foolish? I find it fun. After all if you get to $30 or $40 out there a few times during a 2-4 hour session you have probably won some pretty nice money.
     
  2. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    That's a simple progressive betting strategy. I like it but you need to start pressing more as you go up. So 5-10-15-25-40-60-100 etc. That's how you make some real money if you can get a streak going.
     
  3. angilynny

    angilynny Low-Roller

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    I'm chicken. I never have enough of a bankroll for that ever. I am a $300 a day all day gambler. If I am up before I go home this time I will try pressing more.
     
  4. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    It is neither foolish, nor smart. It won't help you win. It won't cause you to lose.

    It's all about the experience you want. If you're willing to risk your small wins for a chance to hit bit, then pressing is a must. It sounds like that's the action you're after - you enjoy it - so go for it. I'm the same way. The small wins don't excite me much and the small losses don't bother me. So when I'm winning and have built up a nice chip stack, I like to see if I can hit a nice run and win big.

    I would agree with shifter, though. If you're up a little, you might want to get a little more aggressive. Sure, it sucks when you have to split and then double a huge bet and have your whole good run wiped out. But looking down at your stack and realizing that you've just erased two day's worth of losses in twenty minutes is as good a feeling as there is. So I think it's worth the risk. You're there to gamble, right? :thumbsup:
     
    Number 50!
  5. angilynny

    angilynny Low-Roller

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    After learning this I can't just sit and play $10 anymore. I love sweating the cards when I get my bet big out there. You really sweat it when its you against the dealer and you're bet is increasing in size fast!!! I won about $200 in this same trip dealer vs me in 15 minutes tops and I had to walk cause my heart was pounding.

    BFF i did the math and figured out that if you were to get to $100 out there (10,15,20,25,30,35 and so on) and win it you would win $945. That isn't even counting any BJ's doubles or splits. ooh how I would love it.

    Still have 4 weeks and 6 days til vegas and I want to go now.
     
  6. blackjacknut

    blackjacknut VIP Whale

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    Progressive betting strategies mathematically do not work. Only with unlimited wealth, bets & time will progressive betting strategies work. Yes you may find yourself winning in the short run, you may sit down at a table and for 15 minutes amass a nice sum of money. Go back at some given point in the future and you will find yourself loosing with the same strategy.

    I've been playing BJ for 7 years now...multiple tournament plays and wins (yes tournament play is a different beast) and have been very successful on the regular tables. I've seen many folks use some type of progressive betting strategy (i.e. Martingale etc.) and loose big time. When I say use a progressive betting strategy I mean this is the only strategy they use. Coupling a progressive strategy with a basic or count strategy now that is a different topic.

    I always suggest to use Basic BJ strategy first. If you want to go further than Basic strategy learn how to count.....but if your going to count you better be good at it or else you will find yourself getting bounced out of the casino.

    I didn't include the mathematical analysis of why progressive betting strategies don't work but if interested I can share with you....its boring and most people don't want to take the time to understand it, thus the reason why ignorance is not excuse in my mind when deploying a progressive betting strategy and find yourself loosing your bankroll.
     
  7. shiny

    shiny Low-Roller

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    “Luck” always plays a major role during gambling, regardless of using progressive betting strategy or not. When I play BJ, I use the somewhat “conservative” progressive strategy and return to the base bet quickly before the losing streak kicks in.

    I bet 5-10-15-25; pause to preserve my winnings; restart the betting of 5-10-15-25; and repeat this betting pattern along the way. Usually (realistically), the losing streak will pop up. After I lose 2 hands in a row, I color up and leave the table.

    Certainly, I may lose the opportunity of winning more. In reality, I protect myself from suffering a big loss.



    Most of the gamblers (we) experienced this type of disaster, didn’t we? Therefore, I’d rather carefully balance the "aggressiveness" and "conservatism" during my gambling, especially when I have the high bet out there.


    Love to learn from you. Please lost the mathematical analysis. Thank you very much.
     
  8. blackjacknut

    blackjacknut VIP Whale

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    Ok you asked for the mathematical theory here it goes. I happen to subscribe to a theory that states whatever the complexity or allure of a progressive betting system you cannot win in the long term.

    A theory that has been proven by many mathematicians. Richard A. Epstein in the Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (Academic Press) expresses these theorems.

    If a gambler risks a finite capital over a large number of plays in a game with constant single-trial probability of winning, losing, and tying, then any and all betting systems ultimately lead to the same value of mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount wagered.

    In nonmathematical terms, what is being said is a bettor can vary bets any way he desires but, in the long run, no matter what method of varying bets is used, he is going to win or lose the percentage of all the money he bets that the probability of the game predicts he will win or lose.

    Without going into the formal proof of the theorem, some other statistical concepts and some examples can show why this theorem has to be true. The statistical Law of Large Numbers and a field of statistics known as combinatorial analysis must be used to demonstrate the examples.

    The Law of Large Numbers has been known for a long time. It was first stated by Jacob Bernouli in the early 1700's. Algebraically what it says is the number of specific outcomes (n) equals the total number of trials (N) multiplied by the probability (p) of the specific outcome occurring as N gets larger and larger or n=pN and p=n/N. The equation is rearranged to point out how uncertainty is involved. In a game such as dice (or blackjack) long term probabilities are known and favorable outcomes divided by total outcomes will tend to equal the known probability as the number of outcomes become larger and larger. But will it be exactly equal? We are talking about statistics and gambling here and most likely it will not. n/N will only get closer to p. Does that tell us anything? Yes, because the likelihood of how close n/M will be to p can also be calculated. So we change the formula to reflect this uncertainty and come up with a formula p=n/N +u (uncertanty) where u can be either a plus or minus number. As N gets bigger it can be proven u gets smaller so it is fair to say n/N approaches p as N gets larger. (In statistical notation, my u for uncertainty is called variance and is generally expressed as sigma squared. This is a different topic which is also discussed at this site and I am not going to get into it.)

    An aside:
    The statistical fact that u gets smaller as N gets larger does not have to mean the total number of outcomes is closer in number to the predicted number of outcomes as N gets larger. That is, the gambler can be winning or losing more money as time goes on and the Law can will still prevail and be valid. Example: Imagine a game where the player has a 2% disadvantage (craps more or less if no crazy bets are made). After 100 plays it is not unreasonable for the player to be down six bets. p=.49, n=47, N=100. .49=47/100+u. u=-.02. After 1000 plays, assume the player is down ten bets. He has lost four more. .49=495/1000+u. u=-.005, a number a fourth of the size of .02 .

    The Law of Large Numbers is directly related to Theorem I. No matter how many bets are made and no matter what the size of the bets, after enough time (And, when dealing with statistics things much more often than not end up in the short term very close to to where the end up in the long term. If they did not, polling would not work), the gambler is going to come close to winning or losing the percentage of his bets which probability dictates.

    But, it is said, the long term is not important. If you have a system which will win in the short term, the long term is just a sum of your short term wins.

    Combinatorial analysis is also legitimate mathematics and statistics. It deals with with the probabilities of final outcomes of a defined series of events. Since it does that, it is perfectly suited to analyze gambling.

    All series of events branch. That is, after one thing happens, something else unrelated to what had happened before will happen. In gambling there is a win, a lose, or a tie. A progressive betting system says the win, loss, and maybe the tie should lead to different next bets.

    Combinatorial analysis shows betting with any system is fruitless.

    Take an even game which does not have ties and a series of three plays.

    The outcomes are WWW, WWL, WLW, LWW, WLL, LWL, LLW, LLL.

    There are eight different combinations, each of equal liklihood, or a probability of 1/8.

    Clearly, if one bet were made at a time, this equal game would have an equal number of wins or losses. One time in eight it would win 3 units and three times in eight it would win one unit. One time in eight it would lose 3 units and 3 times in eight it would lose one unit.

    But what happens if you bet progressively? Let's first look at the Martingale where the goal of a series is to win one unit. If you won the last time you bet one unit. If you lose the last time you bet one unit more than your total losses which means you double your bet after each loss

    WWW +3 LLL -7
    WWL +1 LLW +1
    WLW +2 LWL 0
    LWW +2 WLL -2


    What is shown above explains the allure and seductiveness of Progressive Betting Systems. There are more paths to wins so wins happen more often but the two paths to losses create as many losses as the five paths to wins create. And no betting pattern can be divised which does not have equal amounts of total wins and losses for the same size series in an even game.

    But most games are not even. Going back to the 2% unfavorable game means out of every hundred plays 51 will be losses and 49 will be wins. Think of the series as pathways. Each time you have a choice of 100 pathways, 51 leading to a loss and 49 leading to a win

    And to come out with even numbers, lets suppose 12,000,000 series of three.

    I don't take credit for all this but do believe in this theory.

    (Source: http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/prog.htm )
     
  9. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    I play this kind of strategy. It entertains me, and it's kind of a rush when I do win ten hands in a row. I chicken out when I get my bets high and stop adding to the stack. Then I curse myself when I win a few more and count how much I would have won if I would have stayed disciplined and piled it high.
     
  10. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    It's fun. It can be rush. It can be a winner. And it can be a loser.

    Bottom line, after all the math and science, it does not work. Each set of cards are still random and not in some sort of order that helps or hurts you based on your bets.

    And, here is a big secret that nobody in Vegas will share with you. Those cards being dealt? They have no idea if you are betting low or betting high. They just lay there. Some are good. Some are bad.
     
  11. elrohir44

    elrohir44 Low-Roller

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    STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY

    That being said, the bigger your bet, the more you stand to lose. Also, when you have a really choppy series of hands you will lose quite a bit rather than come close to break-even. Maybe wait until after your second win to bump it up.

    The odds of you going on a 18-hand winning streak on the next hand is approx. .45^18 or around 0.000057%. Basically if you played one million hands this would happen 50-60 times. Good luck!!!!
     
  12. Royal Flusher

    Royal Flusher Savvy Gambler

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    I agree with this 100%...

    ...unless you get 'lucky'.
     
  13. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    That is a confusing statement. After all that hand could just as well be a winner vs not. Right?
     
  14. elrohir44

    elrohir44 Low-Roller

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    I don't understand what's confusing about it but I usually try to preserve my bankroll as a first priority. I like to be able to be at the table for as long as possible so I will wait until I get ahead a little before taking bigger risks.
     
  15. gambler

    gambler VIP Whale

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    I use a progressive system as well angilynny, but here's an example for you of pressing too hard. This happened to me last night (at home practicing basic strategy).

    Starting with a $100 bankroll, and after just a few small wins, I bet 10,20,30,40,55,75,100, 135. By the time I had progressed to a $135 bet, I had about $200 left over. It occured to me that if I got in a situation where I had a couple splits and double downs (5x my base bet of $135 which isn't that unusual), I would have been forced to subsidize my bets by taking about $300 from my wallet. In a casino, would I have been prepared to do that? Absolutely! It's the splits and doubles that make big money.

    With your bank roll, you have to be careful not to press too hard or you could wipe out your days bankroll in one really big hand. Either that, or you'd have to forgo the splitting and doubling. So what's better? I'm really not sure, but for me, I play for the excitement of those big wins and I have a large enough bankroll to withstand some large losses.

    Playing your system the way you are, seems reasonable given your bankroll. You may not be able to aggresivelly press your bets for a really huge win but you'll win a decent amount while playing with a $300 daily bankroll, IF you know when to walk away. You have to keep it all in perspective.

    It seems to be working well for you. BTW, my biggest winning streak after years of playing is 7 wins in a row (that I remember - those free drinks are sooo dangerous). I try to leave after losing about 4 hands in a row. Learning to play BS perfectly (and I'm not there yet, just closer than I was last year), is the best thing I ever did to improve my game. It just provides so many more opportunities for doubles and splits.

    Have fun on your next trip! This will be a long 4 weeks, 6 days for you!

    PS You didn't say whether your using BS (so forgive me if you don't need this) but I use this site for practicing. It allows you to set the rules you want and you can also just practice the difficult hands that may be challenging for you. http://www.hitorsplit.com/blackjack_game.html
    (Let the page load, scroll down and hit practice mode)
     
  16. Vladimir

    Vladimir Low-Roller

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    Thats one of the reasons I have stayed away from progressive betting on BJ. I figure I could have pressed up to, say, $100 from my last $10 at the table and been forced to split 8s three times against a 6 and it wouldn't be impossible to double on two of these hands. That's then $500, or a whole days bankroll, out there. Naturally the dealer would pull a 5 and a monkey. Of course, if she loses you're rich.
     
  17. KKB

    KKB VIP Whale

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    When I played BJ I used a similar strategy

    When I win, I pull back half my winnings (if I can't do half, round DOWN...so if I win $15, pull $10; win $20, pull $10, etc). Used to do pretty well. But that was 20 years ago when 8 deck shoes were not the norm. I suppose I was inadvertently counting cards to some extent, but certainly no ideally.

    About 10 or so years ago I took up TX Hold Em...much prefer a game where my skill helps offset the luck a great deal of the time.
     
  18. earth-3

    earth-3 High-Roller

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    Maybe someone higher up is trying to tell me something. I have played BJ for 50 years now, and as far as I can remember, I have never won ten hands or more in a row. Perhaps my progressive losses are great enough, the bankroll doesn't last to get to this theoretical win point. Just my luck I guess.
     
  19. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    You don't have to split. You don't have to double. Any hand against a 6 is a good hand. I would rather complain about not winning more than I did instead of losing more than I wanted to.
     
  20. Bo333

    Bo333 VIP Whale

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    I admit to doing a similar progression pattern. Mostly because I get bored with blackjack unless I push up my bets.

    Sometimes I make a killing sometimes the house does. I usually try to stop as soon as my buy-in is doubled.
     
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