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Who Do you Think Wins the NCAA Trny...

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by NCAAHoops, Mar 16, 2015.

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  1. NCAAHoops

    NCAAHoops Low-Roller

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    OK I am ready to get these games started. Who do you think wins the TRNY and have the books priced UK so bad that is not worth the bet?

    My pick to win is of course UK Wildcats as I do not think anyone can stop them due to the depth they have and just amount of talent. But at 1:1 odds:nono: , I think the books have priced them off the chart. I think if you take the ML on each game they play you will atleast come out to 2 to 1 or possible 3 to 1 depending on who they need to face in the later rounds. But then you will need to be in Vegas for each game :grrr:.

    Enjoy the games!!
     
  2. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    Probably won't happen, but living in Wisconsin, my sentimental favorite is the Badgers. First time as a #1 seed.

    KY is just nothing but a one and out "school", but they will probably win. They are semi-pro already.
     
    Christmas
  3. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    I did my bracket... I wound up with Iowa State winning.
     
  4. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    Hard not to see Kentucky winning it all, but they're sure under a lot of pressure for the "perfect" season and there's a reason it's soooo rare.
    I like the way Zona is playing right now and am going to take them.
    Wisconsin is a REAL ball-club and could give people fits as well!
     
  5. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    UK > Wisconsin > Arizona
     
  6. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    If I'm putting my money on it in a sportsbook... Kentucky and far and away Kentucky. They are head and heels above the next best team and the only way they lose is if they beat themselves such as looking past an opponent to the next matchup. If they focus on one game at a time it's just a boring ritual for them to go through until they're crowned in April.

    Next in line bet wise would've been Arizona yesterday when they opened at 17-1 but have been bet all the way down to 7-1 so I'm not the only person thinking the other "Cats" have the second best chance. Also by some metrics this Arizona team is better than last years team that was very highly regarded. The most telling of those metrics is the margin of victory especially in conference. They are also the best suited team to matchup with Kentucky and that would be a hell of a Final Four game!!

    For the sake of variance in a bracket pool I may use Arizona because if stats from ESPN mean anything over 50% of brackets currently have Kentucky winning so you lose a lot of valuable points late in a bracket pool because everyone has them. Thankfully I do pretty well in the rounds of 64 and 32 percentage wise and that may be the difference this year in a lot of pools because there are really only 4-5 teams with legitimate shots to win the thing. I'd say they go about Kentucky - 90%, Arizona - 5%, Wisconsin - 3%, Duke - 1% and Virginia - 1%.

    Doesn't mean the first few weeks can't be fun, just means the late part of the tournament is likely to be a lot of chalk but who knows it is March!
     
  7. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    Speaking of the big pools (ESPN CBS Yahoo) I'm swinging for the fences and have Kansas Vill Duke and Louville surviving over Kentucky somehow..also taking too many big upsets,but when in these huge pools it's the crazy wins that add up..
     
  8. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I think UK is most likely to win. And there is no way I will bet it. Think about it this way: betting on UK to in is the equivalent of a 6 team parlay with an even money pay out!! Granted, you're getting the favorite in each game, but that's still a ridiculous bet for the expected return
     
  9. NCAAHoops

    NCAAHoops Low-Roller

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    I agree with the above, but I feel like there is only one team that can knock out KU and would be KU themselves. The issue of the payout is a problem. So I will need to win the $$ with the 1st 2 rounds of good picks.
     
  10. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I assume you mean UK and not the Kansas Jayhawks :poke:
     
  11. NCAAHoops

    NCAAHoops Low-Roller

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    Sorry about that. Yes I was saying Univ of Kentucky Wildcats. Kansas is good, but I do not believe they have all that is needed to go to the promised land
     
  12. ncfatcat

    ncfatcat Low-Roller

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    Notre Dame is hot right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make the Final 4
     
  13. NJS24

    NJS24 Low-Roller

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    Buffalo wins two games.

    They were competitive with UK earlier this season.
     
  14. Flopitbaby

    Flopitbaby Low-Roller

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    The tourney is Kentucky's to lose. If you recall Kentucky beat Wisconsin in the final 4 last year by 2 points on a last second shot. Kentucky is better this year no doubt but so is Wisconsin who lost 1 player. I would love to see this match up.
     
  15. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I respect Wisconsin and think they are the second or third best team in the tourney, but UK is much better than they were last year and Wisconsin is only fractionally better than the very good team they had last year. Also, keep in mind, WCS was out for UK during the final four last year. They contained Kaminsky last year and this year, UK is deeper and better on the interior (the UK bench in the FF last year basically consisted of Poythress, Hawkins, and a couple Marcus Lee dunks; this year, they come off the bench with four guys that would start on any other tournament team)
     
  16. martinr

    martinr High-Roller

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    Notre Dame beating Duke and NC in the ACC tournament should be noted. They could continue the run and possibly sneak up on Kentucky with some crazy defenses. But, if KU (my team) can overcome all of the injuries and get performance from Ellis, Selden, Oubre and Mason all in the same game, they could get past NDame and end up facing KY again. The first matchup was just a trainwreck. But, the Jayhawks would not let that happen again. Elite Eight>KY/KU/Wisc/AZ/NIowa/Okla/Duke/Iowa St.

    Rock Chalk Jayhawk
     
    Rock Chalk Jayhawk!
  17. USCHawks

    USCHawks High-Roller

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    Eastern Washington vs. Gonzaga in the Elite 8 and the winner of that game wins it all! Either way, one of these teams which are about 10 miles away from each other is going to take home the hardware.

    In all seriousness, it's going to surprise me if it isn't Kentucky cutting down the net at the end of the tournament.
     
  18. scc31

    scc31 Low-Roller

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    Kentucky has three hard match ups. to win it all. Ideally if you're against Kentucky you want to see Notredame in the Elite 8 and Arizona in Final Four and Duke in the Finals. (I don't think Wicita, Kansas, or Wisconsin matches up well against Kentucky).

    Kentucky is the safe choice... but other probable busters can be Arizona, Puke, and Wisconsin (assuming they don't face Kentucky in FinalFour). If you want a super underdog I like Michigan State here or SMU pulling some magic run due to great coaching by Izzo and Brown. My double digit bracket busters are Eastern Washington and Possibly BYU or Georgia St.
     
  19. gradytripp

    gradytripp Low-Roller

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    When I was in Vegas two weeks ago Maryland was at 100-1 to win it all. That seemed like a reasonably good longshot to bet on, so I put $10 down. So I literally have 1000 reasons to root for Maryland. And I think if they win their first two games they're playing KY so I won't have long to wait.
     
  20. bjpcyclone

    bjpcyclone High-Roller

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    This. And especially since UK hasn't played a grueling conference schedule like other 1-3 seeds, who knows what happens when run into someone who is 1) hot, 2) different, and 3) has nothing to lose.

    That said, Kentucky is the overwhelming favorite and I think they will win it. But you never know.
     
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