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Which sports are you best/worst at betting?

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by UKFanatic, Jul 25, 2013.

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  1. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    This is a question my buddies and I toss around a bit.

    For me, I actually do pretty well at baseball. Which is strange because I only have a lukewarm interest in the sport. But I think the number of stats makes it easier to analyze that sports with a smaller sample size season to season.

    The other one I am good at is the NBA. This is just because I am an NBA junkie. problem is, most of my handicapping is right in line with how the books handicap the games. I can usually find a point total or two to exploit (usually based on recent momentum of a certain team and minutes played in a given week for key players), but my lines are so close to the book, I am not able to bet as much of this as I would like.

    My worst sport, by far, is college football. When it comes to gambling, I don't get it, I suck at handicapping it, and I have a personal rule that I will not allow myself to wager more than $50 on any college football game. I simply stink at it. I might as well hand a blank check over to the casinos I have lost so much money through the years betting on these games.

    Anyone else have some thoughts or experiences .....
     
  2. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    I’m the same way with baseball – I don’t follow the sport nearly as closely as I do some of the others, but seem to have much better results betting baseball than I do the NFL or NBA (though I’ve had a bit of success with college hoops).

    Overall, I don’t think I’m very good at sports betting – my lifetime results are probably pretty darn close to the vig.

    The one sport that I have had excellent results in is NASCAR. It seems to me the NASCAR betting market is an incredibly inefficient one. There are always several drivers who are far too cheap or too dear, IMO. I assume that the pros don’t spend too much money betting NASCAR and therefore the fans make a much bigger difference with respect to the lines than they do in other sports. There are two things that I can almost always count on when checking the lines – people will put way too much emphasis on a driver or team’s “momentum” and his qualifying position.
     
  3. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I love college basketball! My favorite sport, but alas, I am a lifetime loser betting that too. I find it easier to track week to week momentum in the pro game.

    As for NASCAR, never tried it. But folks I know who work for professional sports bettors tell me they make most of their money off under the radar events or less mainstream sports (small time college bball, NASCAR, hockey, etc) because the books are not as adept at setting those lines and it can sometimes be easier to get information the books don't have
     
  4. aliasyoshi

    aliasyoshi Low-Roller

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    Recently I have been good at predicting NHL results, at least these last Cup playoffs. Too bad I didn't bet much. :cry:
     
  5. Joe Strummer

    Joe Strummer VIP Whale

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    While I participated in Rottissiere/Fantasy baseball --
    (for about 20 years)
    I was VERY GOOD at betting baseball.
    I went 8 for 8 one day in Vegas !:nworthy:
    However, I don't follow as close anymore and
    don't bet it.
    .
    What gives me the most trouble ?
    I don't bet much of anything else......one footbll game -
    here + there .....
    maybe if there is a big golf tourney I'll throw
    down a bet........and those - I NEVER win !
     
  6. saintpauljeff

    saintpauljeff VIP Whale

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    best = MLB
    worst = UFC
     
  7. Vegas dreaming

    Vegas dreaming Tourist

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    NCAA football is definitely my most profitable sport.
    NCAA REGULAR SEASON basketball has been pretty good to me as well.
    (Notice I emphasized regular season. The 1st & 2nd round of the tourneys absolutely kill me.)

    I do fairly well with the nba playoffs as well. Normally don't bet nba regular season because it is not going on while I am in vegas.

    NFL is where I absolutely lose my shirt. I can't pick a winner for s*#t.
    I don't understand it either as I am a good fantasy football manager.
     
  8. Vegas dreaming

    Vegas dreaming Tourist

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    UKFanatic, I see you're in Tennessee so your name may be a little confusing because of this. Are you a Kentucky fan?

    Whether you are or not,
    GO BIG BLUE!!!
    NCAA CHAMPIONS 2014
     
  9. Vegas dreaming

    Vegas dreaming Tourist

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    A good general rule of thumb when it comes to ncaa football betting is, take the sec with the spread when they are playing out of conference.
    There are obviously exceptions to this rule.
    My beloved UK wildcats are one of the exceptions. Hopefully that changes in the next few years.
     
  10. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    I agree with this advice and have used it often over the last several year to profit.

    I do well with NFL. I was 67% last season on NFL in the spread pool that I play in... and subsequently won. I've won second place in that pool as well. Funny thing is... I'm terrible against the spread until about week 6... then everything turns around for me. Last year I took a break from fantasy football and it REALLY helped my football betting... in fact, I'm done with fantasy unless I intend to quit betting football.

    Some years I can't lose NCAAF. Some years I do poorly. I suppose it depends largely on how much I pay attention during the season.

    I'm fairly competent at NBA. Home court really makes a huge difference in NBA betting. Bad teams seem to cover the spread at home for some reason.

    I've been sucking at baseball this season. But, this is the first season that I've really put effort into betting it.

    I don't bet college hoops because the one season I tried, I lost my ass.

    I don't bet hockey because every time I do, I lose the bet.

    Really looking forward to football season. REALLY looking forward to it.
     
  11. KellyLovesVegas

    KellyLovesVegas certified personal trainer/retired space nerd

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    I do my best at NCAA Basketball, by far. I've also had decent results with NFL Football (especially after I started playing in NFL FF league).

    I'm terrible :cuss: at betting on pretty much anything else in the sports world.
     
  12. Vegas dreaming

    Vegas dreaming Tourist

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    Some one posted lines on the week 1 matchups in another thread. I saw South Carolina -11.5 at home against unc. I like that line a lot if it holds up.
    The ol ball coach loves to run up the score, especially against cross border rivals. So Car's defense should be exceptional this year also.
     
  13. FXT

    FXT VIP Whale

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    Best = Tennis parlays

    Worst = Baseball


    Rest of sports I do well enough to turn a profit. I decided to take a break after the beating I took with Wimbledon and Anderson Silva. Im usually pretty strict about following my bankroll management but I got greedy and it backfired.
     
  14. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    Like betting NASCAR as well but the kicker is when one of your drivers gets caught up in an accident and game over..not thier fault..
    Made some money on Ricky Rudd as he would get a win here or there at good odds..Forget the race but it was black flagged and leader Mark Martin had to bend his fender from front tire to continue and penalty lost his lead? I had the easy winner there sitting in 2nd under the yellow go-around to the checkered flag..That was a :nworthy:
     
  15. Pizzaman

    Pizzaman Low-Roller

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    NFL
    Horse Racing
     
  16. slimmy28

    slimmy28 Low-Roller

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    Baseball is my most profitable. The biggest reason is a) the amount of games on a daily basis allows me to be more selective. I don't feel like I have to "rush" bets just to have action. Plus, I don't enjoy watching baseball from start to finish like I do football and basketball. Because of this, I just think I start the handicapping process with a clear mind not worrying if it's the big game of the week, Monday night,etc.

    The sport I struggle with most is tied, it's the NFL and College basketball. NFL lines are so tight, and tough to exploit. I also second guess myself with NFL way too much. I over think it for sure. College hoops I have no explanation why. I play favorites, they bomb. I play live dogs...they don't show. I play overs, it's a slow brick city game, I play unders, teams can't miss. It's really comical how it turns out. The one exception for me is conference tourney week. For some reason, I do alright that week each year.
     
  17. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    My best ones are: college basketball, EPL soccer and NHL playoffs

    I do OK on: NHL regular season

    The one I don't do well on: baseball

    For NFL I rarely bet on it: just don't do very well at all overall and likewise with the NBA. I never bet on college football.
     
  18. NickyDim

    NickyDim VIP Whale

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    I do pretty well in the NHL. I usually do pretty poor in other sports. I can tell you I won't be visiting a sports book this week when I go. I'll save that for my December trip.
     
  19. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    I've been most successful with NBA games, but never feel really "comfortable" with betting them... conversely, during NFL season I walk out of the sports-book each week confident EVERY ticket is a winner!!! Sadly, it's a rare Monday or Tuesday that I walk back in to cash-in said tickets.
     
  20. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    Sports gambling (specifically horse racing) is my kryptonite and I try staying out of the Sports Book as much as possible beyond a few horse races.

    I've done well historically (lifetime positive results) betting Boxing, Hockey and the Canadian Football League (one impulse large bet on the Memphis Mad Dogs won, one small bet down the road lost).

    Baseball is my next best sport and recently I have done well betting the NBA in game line while at LVH. I can name three to five players in the entire league. My strategy is to bet discrepancies between the in game line and the pre game line. If a -7 pre-game favorite is down during the first two quarters, typically you can take them as a pick'em or even with points depending on the deficit. I stop watching the game after my bets are down until a few minutes to go.

    I've lost lifetime betting football and have been beaten like a red headed stepchild betting the horses (Buggies and Flats) but still love it. Stopped playing at home except for possible Breeders Cup or Triple Crown bets, so my losses have been kept to a minimum, with a positive Vegas results over two of the past three years (still doesn't make up for three and a half decades of whuppings).
     
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