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Video Poker What are the Royal Flush chances of that????

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by SandsFan, May 29, 2014.

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  1. SandsFan

    SandsFan VIP Whale

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    1.) What are the chances of throwing away all your cards and hitting your first $5 VP royal flush?

    2.) Then less than 12 hours later hitting your second?

    I've had several Royals over the last three years and hitting a $5 Royal has been a goal since last year. Then to hit two in 12 hours, what are the odds of that?

    I will post the photos in a short trip report probably this weekend. Last time I made the mistake of posting in one thread, I wasn't allowed to post in a second. Anyway, hearts and diamonds.

    Any doubts, I have a VMB member witness.

    Still dumfounded
     
  2. Julie888

    Julie888 High-Roller

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    Wow. I'd being saying wow even if you just got one Royal. Two is really impressive.
     
  3. KKB

    KKB VIP Whale

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    Hit my 1st royal (.25) 3 years ago at ballys...hit my 2nd later that night at rio
     
  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    This was actually at Harrah's Tunica? Well, I would think this proves that machines are random...why would they want to give that much money away when they are closing? :evillaugh

    1) ignoring denomination (I don't know how often you play $5) a "throwaway Royal" about 1 in 14 million for any given hand.

    2) depends on how many hands you played in the next 12 hours:

    1000 (Zzzzz...in the mediocre Harrah's bed): ~2.47%
    2500: ~6.06%
    5000: ~11.75%
    10000: ~22.12%

    Both of them? Multiply 1) and 2)

    And you spilled this before a TR? :p But then again, if it's Tunica, few people will read it. :(
     
  5. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    The odds are 1 in 383,484

    Before any cards are dealt and assuming you will adhere to basic strategy the odds are roughly 1 in 40,000 (exact odds depend on the game you are playing. In 9/6 Jacks or Better following perfect basic strategy the odds are 1 in 40,387).

    Yeah, sometimes it goes like that. I hit a royal flush at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas in 2006 and then despite playing a lot of VP at my local casino and in Las Vegas it wasn't until 2010 that I hit my next royal flush... and then less than 15 minutes later I hit another royal flush on the same machine. For my wife she probably went about 8 years without playing a single hand of video poker and then in 2012 we were at Binion's where she was playing slots and I was playing video poker, she ran out of money and came and sat next to me and after watching me play for about 15 minutes she asked for a $20, started to play and it only took her about 8-10 hands in and she hit her first royal flush whereas I got none that trip (though I did see an excessive number of four to the royal all trip long, just couldn't complete the hand).
     
  6. progrocker2112

    progrocker2112 Low-Roller

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    Congrats on the hits!

    Along the lines of probability, it seems to me the highest possible payout in VP would be a dealt full house followed by a dealt royal flush for 48,000 units per hand in Ultimate X. Am I correct and what are the odds? Is it simply multiplying individual probabilities here (independent events) or is there some sort of dependency calculation...it's been a long time since Statistics class. With the former approach I get one out of 1,949,217 but I'm guessing it's more complicated and more rare than that.

    Auggie, I'm guessing that the throwaway probability you provided is better than being dealt a natural RF because five cards were already eliminated, correct?
     
  7. SandsFan

    SandsFan VIP Whale

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    The first was at Harrah's Tunica late in the evening. We had been in Memphis, Beale Street area for BBQ. beer and site seeing most of the day and had just started playing. I sat at one machine and hit 4 Ks on $10 DDB VP, played a few hands and moved to this machine. My wife and son showed up about this time and sat with me just as I started. I would guess in the first 10 to 15 hands, I hit the first holding no cards. We played maybe an hour more and went to bed.

    Slept late the next day, had free buffet and headed to the Horseshoe to use up some free play. My wife wanted to play the $5 WOF in the hi limit area so I sat beside her on a Top Dollar machine. I lost quickly so moved down the row to VP. Really wasn't feeling it after the day before so I was just buying time till she finished. $300 start which is 12 hands plus a few small wins. She finished and moved over when I was just about out of money. We sat and talked a while and I wanted to get back to Harrahs to see my son of. So I said ok I will finish this and lets go. Next hand held 3 to a Royal and hit it.

    Overall the trip was outstanding.
     
  8. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    That's after you throw away all your cards though. You only throw away all your cards roughly every 1 in 31 hands. So about one in 14 million is the chance you'll get a "throwaway royal" on your very next hand before the cards are dealt.

    Given you are throwing away garbage cards, the deck is richer in royal cards, leading to a better chance at a royal after throwing all the cards away than being dealt it. But since you don't always throw away your hand, it's much easier to actually get a dealt royal overall.

    As for the max prize in Ultimate X on all lines! You're right you just multiply the probabilities, but you did the math wrong somewhere.

    Probability of a dealt full house: 3744/2598960 = 0.00144057623 = 1 in 694.1666

    Probability of a dealt royal flush: 4/2598960 = 0.000001539077 = 1 in 649,740

    Both happening back to back: multiply both together to get (1/694.1666)*(1/649740) = 1 in 451,027,850

    Hitting powerball is easier than doing this.

    However, that's if both are dealt! It's much easier to get a full house followed by a royal on one line.

    The exact probability needs to be done by a VP analyzer though.

    Like this one here: http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/analyzer/

    For 8/6 Jacks or Better w/Ult X the probabilities look like this:

    full house: 1 in 88.2
    royal flush: 1 in 51,473

    The probability of a full house followed by a royal flush on any given line: (1/88.2)*(1/51473) = 1 in 4.54 million

    Now as an aside, the unlikelihood of these events back to back are partly the reason a full house gives the max multiplier. If it was the royal flush, the odds of winning the top prize on any line would be closer to (1/51,473)^2 ~ 1 in 265 million. Most states require the top prize to occur on a single line with a greater probability than 1 in 50 million. A few states require 1 in 17 million. For 8/6 JoB with Ultimate X, a four of a kind followed by a royal is about 1 in 22 million, so this is partly why the full house is the max multiplier.
     
  9. SandsFan

    SandsFan VIP Whale

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    I wondered how that worked. Always get crap after getting a full house with the maximum multiplier
     
  10. progrocker2112

    progrocker2112 Low-Roller

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    Ain't that the truth!

    Thanks for the explanation, tringlomane!
     
  11. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    I don't know how much you gamble Sandsfan, but just curious if you will be claiming $40,000 in losses on the 2014 Fed taxes, to offset the winnings?
     
    Christmas
  12. SandsFan

    SandsFan VIP Whale

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    Well, I was a .025 VP player until mid 2012 and migrated to $1 VP. At the beginning of last year when CET started the bonus program I ventured up to $5 with the intent to hit 2500 points two days for Diamond. Until then, I pretty much lost every year. Last year, the swings were intense but I finished down a bit. BTW, comps jumped considerably.

    The last 2 years I keep a very detailed log of play through out the year. February Vegas trip was a huge loss, March Reno a win, April Vegas a win and now another win. Wife and I played extremely hard each trip so although I have had three of those hits this year, most went right back in. Even still, up a bit for the year.

    I keep a detailed log so if I win, then I will pay the taxes....and glad to be in that position, finally. Thinking I might pay estimate taxes just to be on the positive thinking side.
     
  13. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    Drawn royal odds

    I'm sure tringlomane has done all the math correctly, but if you happened to throw away a 10 as part of the throwaway, that would reduce your odds on a royal by some amount. I assume you'll never throw away a single Jack or better.

    In Mississippi Stud the odds of a dealt Royal (dealt is the only kind, there is no draw) is 155,937,600/240 or 649,740 to 1.
     
  14. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    And it only pays 500:1...those bastards!!!
     
  15. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    I found the number on wizard of odds. It was one of his "Ask the Wizard" questions. That number lumped in the chances you'd throw away tens too. It's not exactly 1 in 14 million, but it's close to that. I'm hoping to get a dealt Royal with a deal multiplier on double STP first though: (1 in 9.76M and gives automatic 20X multiplier).
     
  16. Gofaster87

    Gofaster87 Low-Roller

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    Royals happen, how they happen is not a big deal. Ive seen people hit 2 royals on the same machine within minutes of each other. Just recently a player hit 3 royals on the same machine within a 3 hour time period. One of the oddest things Ive seen was the same machine hitting a royal once a day for 5 consecutive days. As for getting a royal on a full redraw, its happened to me once and I average pretty close to 1.2 million hands/yr. I have had many days where I did get two royals but I dont remember the exact circumstances. Dealt royals happen once a year for me but so far Ive had 2 this year and a total of 21 royals so far. The math seems to always work out by the end of the year.
     
  17. SandsFan

    SandsFan VIP Whale

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    I just posted a short Tunica trip report on non Vegas trips if you want to see the VP Porn. Actually both machines were old dull monitors. Kind of strange.
     
  18. SandsFan

    SandsFan VIP Whale

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    Wow, you are a serious player. That is a lot of hours..... unless you .....Gofaster.....:thumbsup:
     
  19. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yeah Harrah's voluntarily kept some of the old units.

    On the main floor, those became the only 9/6 JoB (99.54%) left at the 50c and $1 levels. Those machines also offered 9/5 White Hot Aces (99.57%) and the very rare "full pay" Shockwave Poker (99.55%).

    All for $10 a point unlike good machines in Vegas now.

    The Roadhouse also kept a few old units, but the only good one is the 100-penny progressive with 9/6 JoB. I think that's more my speed than yours...:evillaugh And To think, Roadhouse just 15 months ago offered 40/10/6 DDB (99.96%) for as cheap as quarters. :cry:
     
  20. SandsFan

    SandsFan VIP Whale

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    I've played Miss Stud since it came out and I can't even get a quad. So frustrating
     
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