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Video Poker What are the odds of this crazy draw?!??

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by BeeeJay, Sep 8, 2015.

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  1. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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  2. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    And I don't just mean the 5/5 flushes, i mean the 4/5 ace of hearts!
     
  3. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    47 cards left in the deck, 1 is the ace of hearts, run it 5 times

    So 4 ace of hearts is

    1/47 * 1/47 * 1/47 * 1/47 = 0.0000204931428919226%

    4 ace of hearts + 1 flush is

    1/47 * 1/47 * 1/47 * 1/47 * 9/47 = 0.0000039242188516448%

    5 flushes is

    9/47 * 9/47 * 9/47 * 9/47 * 9.47 = 0.0257%


    You're meant to use that incredible drawing power when you have 4 to a royal ....
     
  4. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    Yeah I got about 1 in 5 million of 4 ace hearts, but that calc is same as mine actually calc odds of 4/4 ace hearts not 4/5 right?
     
  5. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    edit: nm
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2015
  6. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    Hey neither of us is teaching math class lol. I'm impressed with anyone who knows the 1/47*1/47.....
     
  7. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    edit: nm
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2015
  8. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Nope im math failing ... It does matter. Damn you beejay!

    1/47^4*46/47 * 4 + 1/47^4

    That is odds of (where B means blank and ? is anything)

    BAAAA +
    ABAAA +
    AABAA +
    AAABA +
    AAAA?

    So it includes odds of all being aces. Multiply by 46/47 if 5 being aces doesnt count.


    Final answer. For now
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2015
  9. Packer Backer

    Packer Backer Low-Roller

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    reminds me a bit of my pic when I drew one card and hit 3 strait flushes out of 5... :beer:
     
  10. raisingoo

    raisingoo Low-Roller

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    I'm confused about your choice of hold cards. You were dealt 342AK all hearts. You chose to hold 342K which seems incorrect. Shouldn't you have held 324A so that you had a possibility of one (or more) straight flush(es)?
     
  11. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    What you talkin bout Willis!?!?

    [​IMG]
     
  12. raisingoo

    raisingoo Low-Roller

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    Sorry, nevermind... I was confused because the first, larger graphic you posted showed "HELD" under the 3, 4, 2, and K (but not "HELD" under the A). I am not familiar with your trainer app and didn't understand that the left-hand side was your originally dealt cards.

    Disregard...
     
  13. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    There is no better service one can provide than giving the "whatchu talking bout Willis" opening.
     
  14. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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  15. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    This is actually an application of the "multinomial distribution".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinomial_distribution

    A: Probability of hitting repeated flush card...1/47

    B: Probability of hitting non-repeated flush card...8/47

    C: Probability of missing flush...38/47

    Probability of 5 flushes with 4 flushes drawing the Ace...

    P(A=4; B=1; C=0) = 5!/4!/1!/0! x (1/47)^4 x (8/47)^1 x (38/47)^0 = 5 x (1/47)^4 x 8/47 x 1 = 40 / 47^5 = 1 in 5733625.175

    But I would argue that you make this thread no matter what if you hit all 5 flushes with 4 being the same card of any rank. Therefore, that would increase the overall probability by nine, or 1 in 637,039, which is quite close to the dealt royal probability (1 in 649,740) . Save the dealt royal for the casino, imo.
     
  16. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    i wouldnt have made it with 5s.....cause 5's suck balls. :)

    thanks for the legit explanation.....once my wife replaces the cleaning ladies with an actuary, I'll know my days are numbered.
     
  17. CtheWorld

    CtheWorld Tourist

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    I've also noticed multiplay STP hands where there a lot of identical cards in identical positions on the various drawn hands.

    It's probably just the human tendiency to find patterns even when things are just random; but I still sometimes wonder if maybe their random number generator is not quite right.
     
  18. ACMike

    ACMike High-Roller

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    Talk about weird coincidental patterns, I had these two draws at two different casinos 9 months apart:
    IMG_1215.jpg 20140710_202102.jpg
     
  19. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Here ya there. 5s hate me. Better than Aces or Deuces hating me though...:evillaugh

    It's supposed to happen occasionally when things are random. A couple of years ago when I was not entirely focused on my own machine, I remember my neighbor converted quads from trips on 3 of 3 lines of nickels on an STP game (probability = (2/47)^3 = 1 in 12,978. What bothered me the most was...no picture...no self-muttered "wow"...no pause in play. He just acted like it was another hand. :( If I ever acted like that...someone please drag me to GA...and I don't mean Georgia.
     
  20. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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