1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Video Poker VP Question-EV Return

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by DOUBLE B, Jul 3, 2012.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. DOUBLE B

    DOUBLE B Tourist

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2006
    Messages:
    534
    Location:
    South Carolina
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    100
    Let's assume I am playing 9/7 DB. Playing at a slow pace (400 HPH). What is my hourly expected loss in dollars/cents. Thanks for your help.
     
  2. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

    Joined:
    May 4, 2009
    Messages:
    11,145
    Location:
    TN
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    19
    Would have a lot to do with how much you are betting per hand. $.25, $1, $5? And of course a completely different answer if you get a Royal, or do not.
     
  3. DOUBLE B

    DOUBLE B Tourist

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2006
    Messages:
    534
    Location:
    South Carolina
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    100
    $.25 Without Royal..........
     
  4. daveg000

    daveg000 High-Roller

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2010
    Messages:
    637
    Location:
    Wisconsin
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    20
    According to the Wizard of odds:

    DB 9-7-5 return .991

    DB 9-7-4 return .977

    http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/double-bonus/

    400 hph at $1 would be $2000 in bets per hour

    So if you played perfectly, for a long long time, your average loss per hour would be:

    DB 9-7-5 return .991 - $18

    DB 9-7-4 return .977 - $46
     
  5. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2009
    Messages:
    11,333
    Location:
    Wisconsin
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    175
    I agree with all your math, but he did say .25, so $1.25 per hand & $500 per hour wagered at 400 hph.

    So OP, adjust accordingly.
     
    Christmas
    My wife's birthday
  6. Tubbs

    Tubbs High-Roller

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2009
    Messages:
    849
    Location:
    Leicester, UK
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    15
    25c full coin, 400 hands per hour, is obviously $500 coin-in per hour.

    Game return for 9/7/5 DB, excluding the Royal, is 97.44%.

    Expected loss = (100-97.44)% of $500 = $12.80 per hour

    But as we know, it rarely works out like that, and you might just hit that discounted Royal on the first hand. :beer:
     
  7. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

    Joined:
    May 4, 2009
    Messages:
    11,145
    Location:
    TN
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    19

    Sorry, poster did not say $1.25. Betting $1.25 would make sense, but he/she said "$.25 Without Royal".

    Poster is asking for detailed information without giving detailed assumptions.

    Also, are those numbers from Wizard with or without an eventual Royal.
     
  8. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2009
    Messages:
    5,749
    Location:
    Burnaby, BC
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    14
    If you just want to keep it simple the math to figure out your expected loss per hour is:

    (wager per hand) * (hands per hour) * (house edge)

    As said, thats if you are keeping it simple. That math assumes you are playing perfect strategy, never making mistakes, there is no variance and that this is just a sample size of much larger play.

    I mention that because:

    Perfect strategy, never making mistakes:
    The house edge people use for calculating this has a minimum amount, but not a maximum. If you play perfectly and never make mistakes then you keep the house edge at its minimum. But if you don't play perfectly and occasionally make mistakes then the house edge goes up.

    No variance:
    Your results may vary from the norm. Based on 400 hands you can expect to have a pair of jacks or better 86 times... but maybe you will only have 80, or 70 or even fewer.. or maybe you'll have 90 or more than 100. Variance is saying you can expect to have a pair of jacks or better 86 times in an hour, but that its not likely you are going to have exactly 86.

    That this is just a small sample size of much larger play:
    What I mean by that is: 400 hands is a small sample size so to actually just take the house edge at full value isn't correct math. As an example the straight flush represents a part of that house edge, but its expected to only come up one in every 9090 hands... in fact the quads themselves, which make double bonus so attractive, represent about 33% of the games payback but your expectation is to make four of a kind only in about one in 417 hands - so 400 hands is not even enough of a sample size to expect quads even once.


    I just mention this because you are getting a lot of numeric replies like $12 an hour, $18 an hour, etc... and while those are valuable in having an idea of what you can expect you can't realistically just sit there and buy in for $40 and expect you are going to be able to get 3-4 hours worth of play out of it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2012
  9. DOUBLE B

    DOUBLE B Tourist

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2006
    Messages:
    534
    Location:
    South Carolina
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    100
    Thanks for the concise reply Auggie. Just what I was looking far....and not a bunch of questions.
     
  10. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

    Joined:
    May 4, 2009
    Messages:
    11,145
    Location:
    TN
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    19
    Priceless....and now I am speechless.
     
Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.