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Video Poker VP Bankroll?

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by marksind, Mar 3, 2013.

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  1. marksind

    marksind Low-Roller

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    My wife and I go to Vegas four to six times a year, typically for five or six days at a time. We are definitely low rollers. Probably 90% of our time is spent playing video poker (pretty much any type offering a 99%+ pay table). We play maybe four or five hours a day. Almost all of that time is spent at nickel machines, betting 25 cents a hand. Keeps loses low, but makes those great hands seem like kissing your sister.

    So, my burning question when I watch people plunk consecutive C notes into the quarter machines is, what bankroll does a person need for five days of quarter video poker at four or five hours a day, playing intelligently (though probably not flawlessly) at 99+% machines? I occasionally get bold and drop a hundred in and go for it, but seems like when I do I get massacred, like the gambling gods are trying to put me back in my place. I'd love to step up the action, but losing thousands each trip between the two of us doesn't have much appeal either. Thanks for any guidance you "high rollers" can give!
     
  2. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    First off, where do you find 99% vp for nickels?

    Second, nobody can answer your question without knowing your game, how well you play it, and how many hands you play an hour. The variance of DDB is way higher than JoB, for example.

    But if you're playing quarter JoB, 5 coins, and you're on a 9-6 machine (good luck finding that, too) then to play 5000 hands with a 95% chance that you don't go broke (5% risk of ruin) you need about $450.

    If you're instead playing DDB, same stakes, you'd need about $885 for the same 5% risk or ruin.

    If you're playing lower pay tables, your amount needed goes up a bit. And of course you're getting in more than 5000 hands in your trip.
     
  3. zlanga

    zlanga Low-Roller

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    The 4 queens, Cal, and I think maybe even the D have nickle JOB or Bonus Poker available, so it certainly can be found. Maybe not on the strip, but if you want better video poker you aren't looking there anyway....

    I usually can play with a 500 a day budget for 8 to 10 hours on quarter, occasionally bouncing to 50c if i have a good run. One time I ended up with a rotten day and played the last few hours on the nickle JOB at the 4 Queens. For shorter pay machines, I couldn't even make a reasonable guess how fast the money goes, I just don't ever play them.
     
    USBC Open
  4. marksind

    marksind Low-Roller

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    VP Bankroll

    Zlanga's got it right - most of our play is at the Four Queens, California, and the "D" vintage casino. Also, most is 9/6 JOB, 8/5 Bonus, or a couple of varieties of Dueces Wild, all of which are offered downtown at the nickel level with 99+ pay tables.

    So, if you allocate $500 a day for 8 or 10 hours play, what would you say your average position is at the end of a trip of whatever duration you usually take? You don't, obviously, expect to lose $500 a day, right?
     
  5. Scot

    Scot Low-Roller

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    For Jacks or Better $.25, $350 should last 4-5 hours safely. For a higher variance game like Double Bonus, you would want more like $500-$600.

    Here is a nice simulator you can use to get an idea:

    JAVA RETURN & VARIANCE SIMULATOR
     
  6. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    I've cut back my gambling (time and stake level) and try to limit play to either green chip blackjack, live poker or video poker at 9/6 JOB or better. I gamble at least a few hours a day and many days I gamble a lot more than that.

    You can expect 3-4 cents + losses on a 99%+ game when you don't hit a Royal. If you play 500 hands an hour, that is about $15-$20 in expected loss per hour. You can run into a worse stretch than that.

    Maybe a good rule of thumb for your bankroll is to bring (or commit) 3-4 times the amount you gamble at the nickel level. If you can handle that level of action / have enough risk tolerance that you will not be upset or nervous and are able to enjoy gambling, than you should do OK.

    Below are my bankroll and gambling summaries and approximate time played for my last 5 trips:

    November 23 - December 3 (11 Days) Bankroll $2,144
    Net Gambling losses: $694
    Free-play Video Poker + $261; Other Net + $105; Live Poker $89
    Video Poker -$130; Boxing - $440; Blackjack - $569
    Cash Expenses $330 ($145 Drinks, $138 Food, $47 Other)
    Total Net Cash Expense (Gambling + Expense): $1,024.

    September 10 - 18 (6 of 9 days spent in Vegas or Reno Gambling)
    Bankroll $1,101
    Net Gambling Wins $430
    Video Poker + $302; Blackjack $220; MLB $90; Horse Racing $25

    Live Poker -$206; Pai Gow -$1 (4 + hours of drinking :beer:)

    Free Harrah's Atlantic City Weekend Trip Aug 3-5
    Bankroll $2,296
    Played mostly 3 Line $1 JOB (Earned Platinum in a day, 2,400)
    Won Pai Gow $118 & Horse Racing $37 (Went to Hamiltonian)
    Lost Video Poker $373 - net of $150 FP; Blackjack $285 & Poker in Philly $40

    June 26 - July 1 (5 Nights)
    Bankroll $2,009. Went home with $1,404 (Don't try this at your home casino).
    Net Gambling Losses -$476
    Green Chip BJ at Cosmo & Aria (Stayed at Aria)
    $0.25 or $1 VP & Green - Black Chip BJ at Red Rock - Back end RR comped room 1 night.

    May 16-21 (5 Nights)
    Bankroll $1,477 + $500 Degenerate ATM Withdrawal = $1,977.
    Mostly Green Chip BJ or $0.25 9/6 JOB at Las Vegas Hilton.
    Net Gambling Loss $223 + Cash Expenses $180.
    Was sick after golf final night and didn't gamble - but gambled a lot the other four days / nights. Was down several hundred early and took $500 out w/ $750 left (drove by my bank's card and stopped - just in case), my low point on the trip, before bouncing back.

    Lost BJ $331, MLB - $120 & Horse Racing - $44
    Won $52 Video Poker; $20 Roulette & $200 NBA in game (I know absolutely 0 about the NBA - just bet the hedge between pre game odds and in game odds)

    The bottom line is I typically take $2,000 to cover blackjack swings, not VP swings. A daily bankroll of $300 - $400 should be adequate to cover bad VP swings yet not cause you to lose it all and visit an ATM machine. Many here have good success budgeting daily and stopping for the day if they reached their daily limit. I am too degenerate when I am gambling as I believe I will "win it back" and sometimes I actually do. I would be comfortable taking $250-$300 per day for strictly $0.25 9/6 JOB. I don't play 10/7 DB as often, but even though the payback is higher, the variance is as well and you may need more for that game (others here may have advice for their rule of thumb).

    I hope this analysis helps your decision on whether you should make the bump and the approximate bankroll you will need to do so. Not sure what Boyd will comp for you with this type of play, but 4 Queens will likely give you room + FP / Cash back for quarter 9/6JOB or 10/7 DB. I don't play much BJ there, strictly quarter VP (to drink and socialize) and I receive consistent mailers.
     
  7. marksind

    marksind Low-Roller

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    Viva Las Vegas, that's exactly the type of insight I was hoping for. Thanks so much for the detailed info. I have read the theoretical "risk of ruin" stuff, but saying that $x gives a 95% chance of not going broke doesn't help much, since it doesn't say anything about an expected return over time. Your details are the sort I keep when I go to Vegas, except my numbers are smaller! Very helpful for future planning!
     
  8. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    fwiw, Casino Royale has 98.91% DW for single line nickels and 50-play pennies (with no minimum bet requirement). It's not a Vegas trip for me without playing those machines. And they have 8/5 Bonus (99.17%) for dimes. So it can exist on the Strip, just in dumpier places.

    And The D of course has the highest paying nickel machine in the country.

    As far as BR concerns, a few hundred a day for most quarter games is a decent start. For DDB or more swingy games, I wouldn't be shocked if $500+ a day was better.
     
  9. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    If you're playing 9-6 JoB for 5 hours, your odds of losing $500 in a day are less than 5%. So your odds of it happening two days in a row are around 2 in a thousand. The odds of it happening every day you're there are almost non-existant.

    But the odds of it happening to you at least once in a 5 or 6 day trip are very real.
     
  10. Buddha

    Buddha VIP Whale

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    Four Queens has it in the 8 uprights, in front of the live Keno counter.
     
  11. Buddha

    Buddha VIP Whale

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    The Four Queens ... Yes , but are the Cal and the D full-pay for nickels ?
     
  12. marksind

    marksind Low-Roller

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    Cal and the D

    Cal has a couple of VP machines just above the check-in that are 99+% for nickels on either bonus poker (8/5) or dueces wild. No JOB.

    The D in the Vintage casino has one machine at the nickel level, "Loose Dueces," that is 99+%. My wife played it for hours last week and generally came out ahead or a little down. I played it for about half an hour, got lucky and hit four dueces, which paid $125 (2500 nickels, not coin out, thank goodness), and lost it at the Four Queens on the progressive double bonus 25 cent machines. The D also has one dueces wild and bonus poker machine that's 99+% at the ten cent level. I played it several times and it never paid sh*t.
     
  13. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    It's technically the "loosest" machine in the country at 101.6%. Any one that seriously wants to play nickel-level 1-play should check the machine out.
     
  14. marksind

    marksind Low-Roller

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    Java Simulator

    Scot,

    That simulator is awesome now that I've been able to take some time to figure it out! Thanks for the link.
     
  15. marksind

    marksind Low-Roller

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    Attempting to Answer My Own Question

    Using the Java simulator Scott provided a link to, I came up with the following:

    Assume a $300 bankroll, 2500 hands played (based on 500 an hour, 5 hours), betting $1.25 per hand:

    9/6 JOB - Risk of busting: 4.34%, 71% probability of losing, 29% probability of winning, "over-under" (half the time more, half the time less) is -$70, odds of making at least $100 13.8%.

    8/5 Bonus - Risk of busting 8.45%, 71% probability of losing, 29% probability of winning, "over-under" -$85, odds of making at least $100 14.9%.

    9/7 Double Bonus - Risk of busting 29%, 63% probability of loss, 37% probability of winning, "over-under" -$100, odds of making at least $100 25%

    I can't figure out what Dueces Wild game the site is simulating, so I am excluding it.

    Interesting stuff. As expected, more potential for gain comes with more potential for major loss. However, for JOB and Bonus the risk of going broke is quite low, and for all three the over-under is doable on a daily basis even for a low roller like me.
     
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