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Video Poker Video Poker Royal Flush Probabilities

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by Ben Jammin, Jun 16, 2014.

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  1. Ben Jammin

    Ben Jammin VIP Whale

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    A Royal Flush happens once in 40,388 plays assuming max coins (that's 5 on a quarter VP Machine) with correct play.

    So 40,388 X $1.25 (5 coins) that's $10,0978 that's right, ten thousand and ninety seven dollars run through the machine to achieve the accurate statistic for that game, based on 99.5 (apx) return on a 9/6 JOB (jacks or better) machine. Slightly more on DDB Poker.

    These are statistics Video Poker Junkies don't want to hear.

    Even if you make the Royal Flush it will still cost you about $250 bucks to play through to the royal with no guarantee you'll hit it, and if you don't it'll cost ya $1,250 bucks for the privilege of playing.

    There are so called full pay machines that would pay a modest sum but those are so few and far between they are virtually non existent.

    You can find them at Locals Casinos and a few others scattered here and there.

    Advantage players look for multiple points days and promotions to make them a viable option for positive return.

    Some self proclaimed Gurus will feed you bs to get you to buy in to the BS but don't be fooled, it's a losing proposition for the rest of us.

    Sorry.:thumbsdown:

    See vpFREE2
     
  2. meyers67

    meyers67 High-Roller

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    Two comments:

    1) "So 40,388 X $1.25 (5 coins) that's $10,0978"

    Check your math

    2) What about the chance that you will get 2 or more royals?
     
  3. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    Terrible math but even if you corrected your math I'm still not understanding your point with all of this.

    Are you trying to inform the good people of this forum that playing video poker is a gamble and that the house has an advantage?
     
  4. mwig

    mwig High-Roller

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    Full pay machines are easy to find if you leave the strip. If you play less than full pay, it would be fair to factor in comps. Most of us love going to Vegas and unless you count cards or play craps with full odds you probably won't find a slimmer house edge than a good VP machine.

    I am a low roller. Well, I play 10+ hours of VP per day so even at the quarter level that it fairly heavy coin in. Our upcoming trip includes 13 free nights and almost all meals covered in advance. That type vacation has significant value to me and that is value I can't achieve with comps from table games.
     
  5. meyers67

    meyers67 High-Roller

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    Can you tell us which hotels you are staying at and what your coin-in is?
     
  6. Buddha

    Buddha VIP Whale

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    Very good points, "mwig" ... I agree whole-heartedly!!! A VP game probably won't give you a full return on your coin-in, but the comps , bonus card points , and additional promos can often fill that void, and indirectly make your trip a positive return.
    We also have fully comped rooms on our weekly trips, plus several comped meals ... as well as the scratch cards at Main Street Station. Even if we lose a few hundred on the VP, the vacation bottom line usually comes out on the plus side. Viva Las Vegas !!!! :thumbsup:
     
  7. mwig

    mwig High-Roller

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    D 3 nights with $50 FP, $25 food, $25 match - $4k coin in per day
    4Q 3 nights with $200 FP, all meals except Hugo's - $6k/day
    Cosmo 2 nights free - no clue on this one. $300 coin in but not going to turn them down
    Suncoast 2 nights free - $3k/day
    MSS - 4 nights - $50 FP plus silver card good for all non gourmet food downtown - $10k/day

    We have repeat offers for July from the D and 4Q which we will not use for nights but will use the free play and MP. Other meals will be covered with ACG and LVA coupons (buffets for minimal points) or My vegas comps.
     
  8. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    That is the probability of a royal flush happening on any given hand before any cards are dealt.

    Hitting a royal flush isn't an event that will happen or must happen to a player, but it has a chance, as listed above, of happening.

    That means you could play a million hands of VP and never hit a royal flush... or you could play only ten hands and manage to hit two.

    How many coins you play has nothing to do with your chance to hit a royal flush, its all about whether or not you follow basic strategy.

    If you don't follow basic strategy or modify it (IE: "I never play King-Ten suited!") you can modify the probability of hitting a royal flush: up by "chasing the royal" or down by not following the prescribed play.

    What you wanted to say here was: to reach that 40,388 hands you need to play $50,485 in coin through the VP machine, and that in the end its still only a 99.5% payback on 9/6 JoB... meaning you are still going to lose money if you hit that royal or not.

    In this case 9/6 Jacks or Better is "Full Pay"

    You are interpreting "Full Pay" to mean that a pay table pays more than 100%, but actually "Full Pay" only means that the pay table has its full value, which in the case of Jacks or Better is the standard 9/6 pay table.

    By "Gurus" you mean Bob Dancer and Jean Scott?

    Actually if you read what they write they are always talking about taking advantage of promotions, contests, comps and bonus multiplier days, especially Jean Scott who quite often states (more than Bob Dancer at least) that they need those bonuses to get the payback over 100% when you factor in the extras and bonuses.


    All that said, to clarify: the general gist of what you were trying to say is: for all the people that are worried about finding "full pay" and best paytable games it doesn't really matter in the end because the game will still be a negative expectation, whether you hit a royal flush or not, and that the only people that can really come out ahead in the long run are the "locals" and video poker grinders who can take advantage of the bonuses, draws, contests, comps, etc that come with an excessive amount of play.
     
  9. mwig

    mwig High-Roller

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    Even that doesn't fully sum it up. Searching for the best available pay table is always the better option. If your choice is 98% vs. 96% you would be crazy to take the lower table.
     
  10. keno60

    keno60 VIP Whale

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    Great Job!
     
  11. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Generally yes, but if you somehow know that the 96% machine will give you 4% of coin-in back in various comps vs. the 98% machine only giving you 1% back, then the 96% machine would be better to play if you utilize the full 4%. I don't think the example I have given often exists though.
     
  12. mwig

    mwig High-Roller

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    I agree. I will play where I am staying but otherwise I search out the best opportunities even in relation to full pay schedules.
     
  13. spinette

    spinette Tourist

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    Also note that machines will hold back about 2.5% until you hit a RF. (This is according to the 2014 edition of the ACG.) So while you're playing that 100.76% DW machine, expect to have about $2.50 kept by the house for every $100 played!
     
  14. spinette

    spinette Tourist

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    Sorry. That's not actually correct. Expect to have about $1.64 held back on this particular machine while waiting for the RF (as 100.76% - 2.5% is 98.36%).
     
  15. Suekel

    Suekel VIP Whale

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    In other words, you could be me..... So annoying. :grrr:
     
    Vegas Just Because...
  16. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Fortunately the ACG terribly estimated the value of a royal flush. It's much closer to 2% for nearly every game where the royal pays 800 for 1. For 9/6 JoB the royal is worth 1.98% to the return. But straight flushes are worth 0.55% in 9/6 JoB, so maybe that's why they said 2.5%?

    For full-pay deuces wild the royal is only worth 1.77%, since things like AJ suited are incorrect to hold. But 4 Deuces is worth 4.07%. Full-pay deuces can still suck when you don't hit 4 deuces.
     
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