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Video Poker Video Poker payback tables question

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by bobby jones, Nov 13, 2015.

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  1. bobby jones

    bobby jones Low-Roller

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    Forgive me if this has already being discussed.

    We have all read the annual slot payback percentages and understand that they include VP as well. So when slots are listed for say 90% payback, we know that non-vp slots have to be less than stated percentage - by how much, who knows? we are not privy to the breakdown.


    So, for VP we see paybacks @85% - 100%. My understanding is that these paybacks all include the royal which is hit @ once every 30,000 plays. If we take out the royal from the equation, what is the payback then? Is there somewhere to find this? It almost feels like not gambling when playing a 99% machine but, in reality is the return much lower like 70% or 60% or...when taking out the Royal from the equation?

    Now that I think about this....

    In theory, assuming $1.25 for max play, on a quarter machine and a royal paying $1,000, I guess I should expect to sit there on my last play (#30,000) down $998.75 lifetime on a 100% machine. If this is true, I have played 29,999 hands (perfectly) at $1.25 per and down 998.75/ (29999*1.25) - 2.67% or in payback terms the machine is paying out 97.3% not including the Royal.

    Is this correct or am I missing something?
     
  2. Stevie D

    Stevie D VIP Whale

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    Tring?
     
  3. grosx2

    grosx2 VIP Whale

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    On most common variations of VP, the royal accounts for right around 2% of the expected return. So if you have a paytable with an expected return of 98%, taking the royal out of the equation will leave you with an expected return of about 96%.

    And the odds of hitting a royal are around 1 in 40,000 hands, with small variations based on which game you are playing, since different games require different strategies.
     
  4. Jordan

    Jordan Caveman

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    LOL....I love how all VP poker Q's eventually make their way to Tring.....
     
  5. wanker751

    wanker751 Dutch Rudder Enthusiast

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    Ha well why not, he is the expert! Though I do believe that Grosx is correct.
     
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  6. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Thanks. :eek: And yes, grosx2 is right for most VP, it's about 2% since payout/royal frequency for many non-wild games is approximately 800/40,000 = 2%. Which is exactly what Bobby was coming up with on his own. But for deuces wild and any non-wild game that pays 7 for 1 or more on a flush, the royal's contribution is even less because the royal frequency is more rare.

    But any time you go on a "drought" of a particular hand, then you can pretty much exclude that (those) category(ies) from the game's return to get a reasonable estimate of the game's short-term return without seeing those hands. For example DDB without any quads hit, one would expect a payback in the mid 70s. The return for full houses and lower is 76.57% for 9/5 DDB.
     
  7. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    The reports you are referring to show "hold percentage" which is not the same as payback percentage.

    The payback percentage is the amount, calculated based on probability and return amount, how much a machine should, in the long run, pay back to the player. IE: if a slot machine has one reel and that reel has just one symbol on it, a dollar sign, and its a 1 in 100 chance the dollar sign will come up and when it does come up the machine pays the player $99 on a $1 bet... that would be a 99% payback percentage.

    The hold percentage is how much money the machine/game actually keeps. Per the example above if 5 players each sit at the machine with a $100 and play exactly 100 spins each at $1 per spin and only four of them hit the dollar sign symbol (only four of them win the $99) then the machine's "hold percentage" will show on the report as 79.2% - the $500 in wagers divided by the $396 paid out = 79.2%

    This is why in those reports you will sometimes see blackjack listed as 20% or more, even though on the casino floor its payback might be 99%, or roulette, which other than the basket bet there is nothing you can do to change the 5.2% house edge, might show as 15-20% - its not that they have some magic roulette wheel that has increased the house edge from 5.2% up to 15+%, but thats what the table is "winning"

    It can vary (very slightly) from each of the different variants of video poker, but on 9/6 Jacks or Better, as an example, the royal flush accounts for 1.98% of the games total payback.

    For 9/6 Jacks or Better this is what each hand represents towards the payback:

    Royal Flush = 1.98%
    Straight Flush = 0.54%
    Four of a Kind = 5.9%
    Full House = 10.36%
    Flush = 6.6%
    Straight = 4.49%
    Three of a Kind = 22.33%
    Two Pair = 25.85%
    Jacks or Better = 21.45%

    As for frequency: Statistically, the royal flush should come up one in about every 40,000 hands. That doesn't take in to account variance or ever mean anything like "you are owed" a royal flush because you played 40,000 hands on a trip to Vegas once... thats just the mathematical probability that it will happen, and thats assuming you are playing proper strategy (if you aren't playing properly you could be decreasing or increasing the probability of a royal coming up)

    That doesn't account for variance or volatility and there are plenty of people on here who have played well over 40,000 hands of VP and never hit a royal flush. From personal experience: I hit a royal flush once and then went over 5 years without hitting another, but then when I did finally get one I got another about 10-15 minutes later on the same machine and then 3 months after that I hit another... and that was 4 years ago and I haven't hit another since.

    With volatility and variance its why you can sit down at a VP machine and even though its payback might be 99% you can put a $100 in the machine and be broke 5 minutes later - what you are seeing is just a small sampling of results in the lifetime of that machine and thats why even though there might only be a 1% house edge on a particular VP machine why you can sit there and maybe you will win and maybe you will lose... its gambling.
     
  8. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Thanks for filling in more detail Auggie.
     
  9. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Also worth noting that VP is not like slots in that these %s are based on optimal play, and most people will not play optimally.
     
  10. Snidely

    Snidely VIP Whale

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    Bobby, your mathematical intuition is spot on. Look at it from the casino's perspective, if they have 100 VP machines in action, they are taking 2% from each player on average. The more machines/tables/slots in play, the closer they get to the theoretical house advantage. Of course, if the machines paid out the mathematical theoreticals, it's not gambling. With variance comes the fun. When you hear people say, you can play that game all night and not lose much money, of course you can't win much either, that's low variance. When they say, you can win a lot or lose a lot in a short amount of time, that's high variance. The house advantage can be the same for both games. Triple double bonus pays out more for the rarer hands and pays less for the common hands as compared to JOB.
     
  11. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    True, which is partly why VP tends to have a more generous payback than slots. The machine will often hold 2-3% extra thanks to errors. If one plays 9/6 JoB with the intent to lose the most money, the game is then expected to return less than 3% back! I actually did this in Tunica recently one penny at a time for the hell of it. Lost 50 hands in a row. :evillaugh
     
  12. wanker751

    wanker751 Dutch Rudder Enthusiast

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    Or like 99% ev close to perfect play and lose $100 in an hour
     
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  13. bobby jones

    bobby jones Low-Roller

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    thanks for the replies guy. Played VP for an hour or two at Fallsview Friday night watching the screens, having a a beer (of course paid for in canadistan) and losing $50 over the session. About 32,573 more plays to my Royal!

    Mrs Jones played Willy and Walking dead and got two hand pays - ergo she says slots are a guaranateed winners so I should play slots..lol
     
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